1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of pulp shows initial marginal improvement. International pulp mills are actively reducing production and switching production, leading to a tightening of domestic circulating supply. The downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, with leading paper mills entering the market to purchase. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5200 - 5450 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed that softwood pulp remained relatively stable, while hardwood pulp increased slightly. Among them, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4200 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (or +2.94%) from the previous week. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp were flat compared to the previous week [10][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated and rebounded in a range of more than 140 points, closing at 5306 yuan/ton for the week, up 114 yuan/ton (or +2.2%) [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the smaller increase in the spot price of softwood pulp than that of pulp futures, the basis discount has decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract is 544 yuan/ton, a reduction of 144 yuan/ton compared to last week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: Last week, the main log futures contract 2509 showed a slight oscillatory decline, closing at 815.0 yuan/cubic meter for the week, down 15.5 yuan/cubic meter (or -1.87%) from the previous week [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 48.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons (or +0.42%). It is expected that the domestic production of hardwood pulp will be about 21.0 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.9 tons this week [4][21]. - **Capacity Utilization of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 76.6%, up 0.3% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 87.1%, up 0.4% week - on - week [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2 tons (or +2.51%) [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Hardwood Pulp**: In July 2025, the domestic chemical mechanical pulp production was 89.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 tons (or +4.8%), with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, down 0.8% month - on - month; the hardwood pulp production was 91.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 tons (or +2.92%), with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, up 2.4% month - on - month [31]. - **Monthly Production Profit of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.1 yuan/ton (or +3.87%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In July 2025, the pulp import volume was 287.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.38 tons (or -5.08%), and a year - on - year increase of 55.22 tons (or +23.75%) [36]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons (or +0.68%); the capacity utilization rate was 63.5%, up 0.4% week - on - week [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons (or +1.3%); the offset paper production was 20.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons (or -1.43%) [42]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the white cardboard production was 31.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons (or +2.61%); the white board paper production was 18.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (or -3.23%); the corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 tons (or -1.93%); the boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92 tons (or +1.51%) [45][48]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained stable compared to the previous week; the price of white board paper increased slightly, while the price of white cardboard remained stable; the price of corrugated paper increased slightly, while the price of boxboard paper remained stable [49][52][55]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, up 2.33% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, up 1.29% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, down 0.41% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, up 1.25% month - on - month [57][59]. - **Domestic Actual Pulp Consumption**: In July 2025, the actual pulp consumption was 332.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.6 tons (or +3.94%), and a year - on - year increase of 10.6 tons (or +3.3%) [63]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall pulp port inventory shows an accumulation trend, with the inventory of mainstream port samples at 209.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +2.49%); among them, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 137.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 tons (or -0.72%); the inventory at Changshu Port was 53.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +10.52%); the inventory at Tianjin Port was 6.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons (or +5.0%) [64][68]. - **Pulp Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 24.18 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2455 tons (or -1.01%); the total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 22.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1856 tons (or -0.82%) [69].