Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have been rising recently due to the boost of the macro - atmosphere, despite the weak fundamentals and lack of confidence in chasing the rise. The current demand peak season has not arrived, and the domestic anti - involution has not affected the paper - making industry, so the upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market is at a critical point of breakthrough. If it can break through effectively, it is advisable to cautiously follow up on the long side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile of 58.0% over 3 years [2]. 3.2 Pulp Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high coniferous pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Management**: Paper - making enterprises with low inventory can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5368 (+40) today, with a 0.75% increase. In the spot market, the price of Shandong Yinxing is 5920 yuan/ton, Shandong Russian Needle is 5300 yuan/ton, and Shandong Goldfish is 4100 yuan/ton, all unchanged. The trading activity in the pulp spot market is low, and prices remain stable. The futures price is mainly driven up by macro factors [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Positive Factors Analysis") - The factors that are favorable for the pulp market are the significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Negative Factors Analysis") - The continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes is a negative factor for the market [5]. 3.6 Pulp Price Quotes - **Futures Contracts**: On July 22, 2025, SP2509 was at 5368 yuan/ton, SP2511 was at 5326 yuan/ton, and sp2601 was at 5502 yuan/ton, with different price changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **CFR Quotes**: On July 21, 2025, the CFR quote for coniferous pulp was 870 US dollars/ton, and for broad - leaf pulp was 800 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [5]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 22, 2025, domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and finished paper showed different price trends, with some remaining stable and some having slight changes [7].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View - The SP2509 contract rebounded with a decrease in positions today, closing at 5076, up 0.56%. From a supply - demand perspective, the weakness persists. The falling external quotes and high - fluctuating imports suppress price increases. High port inventories and weak demand in the off - season make de - stocking difficult and create large inventory pressure. Although there will be a peak demand season after August with some stocking needs, it hasn't started yet. However, the current absolute price is at a low level, and continuous price drops may touch the upper edge of overseas pulp mills' cost lines, which will resist further price declines. With the policy influence of the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st, the commodity has short - term upward rebound momentum due to sentiment. The strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 20.91%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 68.0% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those with high coniferous pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4900 - 5100 [3] Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and macro - policy support [5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Continuous decline in overseas pulp quotes [5] Price Quotes - **Futures Contracts**: On July 2, 2025, SP2507 was at 5048 yuan/ton (down 0.24% week - on - week), SP2509 was at 5072 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and SP2511 was at 5068 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - **CFR Quotes**: On July 1, 2025, coniferous pulp was at 870 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and broad - leaf pulp was at 800 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Various types of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp in different regions showed price changes on July 2, 2025, with most showing slight declines [5] - **Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices**: Copper - plate paper was at 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), white - card paper was at 4410 yuan/ton (up 1.15% week - on - week), tissue paper was at 5900 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and offset paper was at 5700 yuan/ton (down 1.72% week - on - week) [7]