证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 休闲食品 25Q1 分销稳健，短期利润承压 ——三只松鼠 2024 年及 2025Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 短期来看，2025Q1 公司整体业绩表现平淡，但 2025 年业绩增长的重要驱动力 在于线下分销，需关注日销品占比提升及动销表现。 2024 年业绩符合预期，2025Q1 业绩略低于预期 3）净利率：2024 年实现 3.84%，同比+0.75pct；2024Q4 净利率为 1.92%，同比- 0.06pct。25Q1 净利率为 6.40%，同比-2.05pct。 公司 2024 年实现收入 106.22 亿元（同比+49.30%）；实现归母净利润 4.08 亿元 （同比+85.51%）；扣非后净利润实现 3.19 亿元（同比+214.33%）。其中 24Q4 实 现收入 34.53 亿元（同比+36.35%）；实现归母净利润 0.67 亿元（同比 +32.63%）；扣非后净利润实现 0.53 亿元（同比+229.16%），业绩符合市场预期。 2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 37.23 亿元（同比+2.13%）；归母净利润 2.39 亿元(同 比-22.46%)，扣非归母 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.4% year-on-year to 230 million yuan [7] - The offline distribution channels have begun to ramp up, with a total growth of 16.2% when combining Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. In Q1 2025, online channels accounted for approximately 70% of revenue, while offline distribution and supermarkets made up nearly 30% [7] - The company is in the phase of introducing distribution, which has led to some pressure on expenses. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 26.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company expects to improve net profit margins through increased sales of daily consumer goods and dairy beverages in offline distribution, as well as a gradual increase in the self-production ratio of nuts [7] - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.95 billion, 7.11 billion, and 11.11 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 44%, and 56% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 10.62 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 49.3%, and further increase to 20.41 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 407.74 million yuan in 2024 to 1.11 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 85.51% in 2024 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.02 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.76 yuan by 2027 [1]

推出高性价比零食水饮货盘，看好线下分销业务发展。公司目前在分销渠道推出了高性价比零食水饮货 盘，且不断丰富产品矩阵。根据渠道反馈，线下分销3 月增速达215%，其中肉食增长506%，方便素食 增长2745%，瓜子炒货增长653%，涌现较多爆款产品，如火鸡面、肉食大礼包、八宝粥等，随着公司 逐步加大分销招商铺货力度，线下分销有望贡献积极增量。 投资建议：我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为138.20/180.28/208.06 亿元，分别同比增长 30.11%/30.44%/15.41%，预计公司2025-2027 年实现归母净利润4.70/6.91/8.42 亿元，分别同比增长 15.32%/47.00%/21.86%，对应25-27 年PE 为23.7/16.1/13.2X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、渠道拓展不及预期、成本上升风险等 毛利率有所下降。25Q1 实现毛利率26.74%，同比-0.66pct，预计主要系春节错期影响基数较高。 阶段性费用投入增加，费用率有所上升。25Q1 期间费用率为20.61%，同比+2.81pct，其中销售费用率 为18.67%，同比+2. ...