1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices rebounded, but the basis weakened. It is still the off - season for steel, with better - than - expected decline in off - season demand. High production has not been reduced, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. Weekly SMM data shows a decline in weekly steel exports. Steel is in a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Recent raw material rebounds support the upward shift of the finished product price center. Rebound - biased short operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports is expected to remain at a high level. The demand for hot metal increased slightly last week, and the profitability of steel mills remained stable. However, terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, and there are uncertainties in export and overseas economic changes. Port and steel mill inventories increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 [3]. Coke - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but a phased bottom is emerging. Supply tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. Demand has rigid support from hot metal, but the hot metal output is on a downward trend. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was stable. Domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal types having price rebounds. Supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and accidents. Imported coal has different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal import profits inverting. Demand from coking and downstream industries has some resilience, and there are signs of recovery in restocking demand. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand continued to weaken, and spot prices were weak. Factory inventories decreased but were still high. Iron water demand increased slightly, and there are uncertainties in terminal demand. Non - steel demand has some short - term improvement, and exports may maintain some resilience. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Demand is weak in the off - season. Manganese ore shipments were basically flat globally, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventories decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Thread steel spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged, while futures prices increased slightly. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices showed mixed changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter - produced thread steel in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coil and thread steel in different regions increased [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.2% to 242.2 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 868.5 tons, with thread steel production increasing by 2.2% and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 0.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.2% to 1338.9 tons, with thread steel inventory decreasing by 1.3% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 5.6%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased by 0.4%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 3.4% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.2%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the price indexes of new - exchange 62% Fe and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 8.6% week - on - week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 4.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume increased by 4.1%, and the national monthly hot metal and crude steel output increased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.1%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke remained unchanged, and the 01 - contract price increased by 0.9%. The 09 - contract basis and the J09 - J01 spread decreased [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory decreased by 1.9%, with coking plant and steel mill inventories decreasing [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 9.0% [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 1.5%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.7%. The 09 - contract basis and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs decreased by 0.1%, and the warehouse - pick - up prices of some domestic coal types remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 8.8%, and the coking coal inventories of coking plants and steel mills had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 0.8%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price increases. The SF - SM main contract spread was 22.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes. The export price remained unchanged [7]. Supply - The production enterprise's operating rate increased by 4.3%, and the weekly output increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.1%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price decreases [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes [7]. Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment was basically flat, domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferromanganese increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese from steel - making and non - steel industries has uncertainties [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Currently, hot-rolled coil production has rebounded, and apparent demand remains high with a small decline. However, both supply and demand of rebar are weak, and apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, digesting production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. In the short term, inventory remains low, and the pressure on steel mills to cut production is small. Iron element costs are supported, but carbon elements are still weak. Later, steel prices will follow the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Operationally, consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore has obvious upside pressure due to the expected decline in molten iron, supply increase, and administrative reduction. However, the short - term decline in molten iron is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the iron ore price range may shift downward, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan. Although the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, it still has some short - term resilience. The average molten iron output in June is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. Pay attention to the change in molten iron output in July [3]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose. With the sharp rise in crude oil driving the expectation of an energy crisis and the news of production restrictions in the production areas, the coal - coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing an opportunity for hedging short positions. Unilaterally, it is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on short - term rebounds. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The spot fundamentals of coking coal have improved. Affected by the risk of geopolitical conflicts and the sharp rise in crude oil, coking coal has followed the upward trend, and the basis has been repaired. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on short - term dips. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Affected by the continuous weakening of demand, prices remained weak, and manufacturers' losses continued to intensify. Although manufacturers' inventories decreased, the absolute value was still high. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved. In the short term, the stabilization of costs gives some room for price increases, but the sustainability is questionable. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese continued its rebound trend last week. Although its absolute valuation is low, its supply is still relatively loose. Supply increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Under the off - season demand, supply pressure still exists. Manufacturers' inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decline. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. Some regions' spot prices increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. For example, the rebar spot price in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while some steelmaking costs decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions decreased to varying degrees. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 13 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter production increasing by 6.2 tons and electric furnace production decreasing by 1.6 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased by 46.8 yuan/ton, a 49.8% decrease [3]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly due to a decrease in shipments from Australia. The arrival volume at ports decreased slightly, mainly due to a decrease in the arrival of Brazilian ore. Based on shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The average daily ore - removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. The third - round spot price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a reduction of 70/75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative reduction was 120/135 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel mills proposed a fourth - round price cut on the 20th, which is expected to be implemented on the 23rd [6]. - **Supply**: Recently, environmental protection inspection teams have entered multiple northern provinces. Affected by environmental protection and other factors such as maintenance, the supply of coking in the northern region has tightened, and the operation rate of independent coking plants has declined [6]. - **Demand**: In June, molten iron production continued to remain above 2.4 million tons per day, but the blast furnace operation rate decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued the trend of peaking and falling [6]. - **Inventory**: Coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decrease, and steel mill inventories also decreased. Downstream steel mills continued the rhythm of active de - stocking, and overall inventories were at a medium level [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal prices slowed down, and the prices of some coal mines rebounded slightly, but the overall market was still weak [6]. - **Supply**: In the Inner Mongolia region, many coal mines stopped production due to environmental protection and other factors. In the Shanxi region, supply decreased significantly due to accidents and other factors, and coal mines began to hold prices. Overall, the production of coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure was still obvious. The import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, and there was a recent price correction [6]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of coking plants began to decline, and the molten iron production of blast furnaces continued the trend of peaking and falling. Downstream users mainly replenished their inventories on - demand. Although the downstream demand still had some resilience, the overall demand was weakening [6]. - **Inventory**: Coal mine inventories continued to accumulate at a high level, and there was pressure to reduce prices for sales. Port inventories began to decline from a high level, and downstream users controlled their inventories. The overall inventory was at a medium level [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The cost of production in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The export of ferrosilicon may still maintain some resilience, but the marginal growth space is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers decreased, but the absolute value was still high. The average available days of downstream ferrosilicon increased slightly [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The manganese ore supply and demand situation changed, with an increase in the shipment volume and a decrease in the arrival volume at ports [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The demand for ferromanganese from metal iron has not improved significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese manufacturers increased, and the average available days of downstream ferromanganese decreased slightly [7].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic and policy expectations remain weak entering June, with no significant changes anticipated in the US-China trade relations [1] - Factors such as the high school entrance examination, high temperatures, and rainy season are expected to impact certain demand segments, leading to a potential weakening of terminal demand [1] - It is projected that construction material consumption will decrease by approximately 3% month-on-month in June [1]