Economic Overview - In 2024, Guangdong's GDP reached 14.16 trillion yuan, while Jiangsu's GDP was 13.7 trillion yuan, narrowing the gap to 462.6 billion yuan. Jiangsu's real growth rate of 5.8% significantly outpaced Guangdong's 3.5% [2] - By the first half of 2025, Jiangsu's GDP was 669.68 billion yuan, and Guangdong's was 687.25 billion yuan, further reducing the economic gap to 175.76 billion yuan, the smallest in nearly six years [2] Infrastructure Investment - Since 2019, Jiangsu has shown a clear upward trend in infrastructure investment growth, while Guangdong's investment has been declining. In 2024, Jiangsu's infrastructure investment growth was 13.3%, compared to Guangdong's mere 0.2% [2][3] - Jiangsu's county-level state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have significantly larger financing scales compared to Guangdong, with Jiangsu's county SOEs financing 8.54 trillion yuan through 481 enterprises, while Guangdong's 49 enterprises financed only 1.54 trillion yuan [3] Development Models - Jiangsu's development model is characterized by "government-led, park-driven, and debt-supported," while Guangdong's model emphasizes "market-led, private enterprise-driven, and global layout" [5] - Jiangsu's unique fiscal system allows county-level governments significant financial autonomy, enabling them to mobilize resources effectively, unlike Guangdong, where only a few cities have similar fiscal arrangements [5][8] Financing Mechanisms - Jiangsu has a special financial support mechanism for county-level investment companies, allowing them to obtain funds at costs below 3%, creating a sustainable funding loop for infrastructure projects [6] - In contrast, Guangdong's financing relies heavily on government special bonds, raising concerns about its future economic sustainability [3][6] Cultural and Risk Factors - The cultural differences between Jiangsu and Guangdong affect their economic governance, with Jiangsu's model being more reliant on government intervention, while Guangdong's market-oriented approach fosters greater entrepreneurial spirit [9][10] - Guangdong's historical financial issues have led to a more cautious approach to debt, limiting its ability to replicate Jiangsu's high-leverage investment strategies [10][19] Consumer Market Potential - Guangdong's large domestic market, with a retail sales total of 4.79 trillion yuan in 2024, provides significant opportunities for industrial development, emphasizing the importance of building a consumer market [11][12] - The province's manufacturing sector is diverse, with a complete industrial chain, making it well-positioned to transition from "Made in Guangdong" to "Brand from Guangdong" [11][14] Internationalization and Reform - Guangdong needs to enhance its internationalization efforts, drawing lessons from Japan's overseas investment strategies to support its manufacturing sector [15][17] - The province should explore institutional reforms to enhance its role as a "co-legislator" in national policy-making, particularly in areas like cross-border finance and professional services [18][19]

Group 1 - China's total debt is approximately $12 trillion, accounting for about 65% of its GDP, which is relatively low compared to the US and Japan [2] - Over 80% of China's debt is directed towards infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail, highways, 5G networks, and automated ports, which are seen as long-term investments [2] - The profitability of projects like the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, generating annual profits in the billions, demonstrates the effectiveness of China's investment strategy [2] Group 2 - Japan's total debt is around $9 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 220%, indicating a precarious financial situation [5] - More than 90% of Japan's national debt is held domestically, creating a cycle of internal funding that mitigates external shocks but poses long-term risks [5] - Japan's aging population and rising pension and healthcare costs are significant contributors to its fiscal challenges, leading to a reliance on borrowing to maintain balance [5] Group 3 - The US has a staggering $36 trillion in debt, averaging about $110,000 per citizen, with a significant portion allocated to military spending and social welfare [7] - Political struggles have exacerbated the US debt crisis, with reduced foreign investment in US Treasury bonds indicating challenges to the sustainability of its borrowing model [7] - The US's approach of living beyond its means raises concerns about future economic stability, as interest payments alone exceed $1 trillion annually [7]