2026 年 2 月 27 日 分析师：陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 周 分析师：罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070002 电话：0769-22119302 邮箱： chenzhanqian@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 超配（维持） 通信行业双周报（2026/2/13-2026/2/26） 行 业 5G SA 发展进入拐点 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 通信行业 SAC 执业证书编号： 通信行业指数近两周涨跌幅：申万通信板块近2周（2/13-2/26）累计上 涨4.39%，跑赢沪深300指数4.24个百分点，涨幅在31个申万一级行业中 位列第5位；申万通信板块2月累计上涨1.63%，跑赢沪深300指数1.2 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt is approaching $36 trillion, significantly impacting the economy and diverting funds from infrastructure and education to debt repayment [2] - The rapid growth of debt since the 2008 financial crisis has resulted in an average debt burden of over $100,000 per American [2] - Economists warn that rising interest rates could lead to an additional annual interest expenditure of over $300 billion, further constraining other spending areas [4] Group 2 - The debt issue is a long-term result of policies such as large tax cuts and military spending, which have exacerbated the fiscal deficit [5] - The hollowing out of the manufacturing sector has led to a significant loss of factory jobs, dropping from over 17 million in 2000 to over 12 million currently, increasing reliance on imports [8] - The wealth gap is widening, with the top 1% holding 30% of the wealth while the bottom 50% only possess 2.4%, leading to decreased social mobility [8] Group 3 - Political gridlock between the two parties has stalled infrastructure legislation, further hindering economic growth [10] - China's rapid economic development is projected to surpass the U.S. GDP by 2028, accelerated by a more stable recovery from the pandemic [10][12] - China's manufacturing output has grown significantly, accounting for nearly 30% of global production, enhancing its competitiveness in global trade [12] Group 4 - The U.S. military spending accounts for 40% of global military expenditure, but involvement in conflicts has increased debt without yielding long-term benefits [14] - China's Belt and Road Initiative has invested $1.3 trillion in over 150 countries, enhancing its influence and support in developing nations [14][16] - China's high savings rate and investment in infrastructure, such as high-speed rail and renewable energy, contribute to its economic resilience [17][19] Group 5 - China's patent applications account for 38% of the global total, significantly aiding its technological advancement [19] - The U.S. faces challenges from its reliance on consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of its economy, while China focuses on long-term development [19] - The transition to green energy is progressing rapidly in China, with significant investments in renewable energy technologies [19] Group 6 - Some analysts believe that China's rise to surpass the U.S. may not be straightforward due to demographic challenges and a potential slowdown in growth rates [21] - China's debt levels have increased since the 2000s, posing a risk to its economic stability [23] - The U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency is at risk if confidence wanes, which could lead to volatility in global financial markets [25] Group 7 - Future geopolitical tensions are expected to intensify, with the U.S. potentially using alliances to pressure China [27] - Economic strength is central to national competition, with both the U.S. and China facing internal challenges that could impact their global standing [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's commitment to building a community of shared future in cyberspace, highlighting its role in global governance and cooperation in the digital realm, particularly for developing countries [1][2][5]. Group 1: Development Initiatives - China has signed digital economy cooperation memorandums with 26 countries and has 33 "Silk Road e-commerce" partner countries as of August 2025, showcasing its efforts in international digital collaboration [2]. - Chinese enterprises are actively involved in building digital infrastructure, including 5G bases, data centers, and smart cities, contributing to projects like the "China-ASEAN Information Port" and the "Digital Silk Road" [2]. - Huawei's global digital inclusion initiative, launched in 2019, has implemented digital skills training programs in hundreds of schools worldwide, aiding in the development of digital talent [2]. Group 2: Security Framework - China's approach to cybersecurity is based on a comprehensive and cooperative security perspective, promoting consensus and collaboration among nations [3]. - The country has released several strategic documents, including the "National Cybersecurity Strategy" and the "Global Data Security Initiative," reflecting its commitment to multilateral cooperation and opposition to unilateral security practices [3]. - By 2025, China aims to establish partnerships with 294 computer emergency response organizations across 87 countries and regions to enhance data security and personal information protection [3]. Group 3: Collaborative Pathways - China advocates for multilateral cooperation, emphasizing dialogue and practical collaboration to address global digital governance challenges [4]. - The establishment of the World Internet Conference International Organization in 2022 has increased representation and voice for developing countries in global governance [4]. - Initiatives like the "China-ASEAN Digital Governance Cooperation" and the "China-Africa Internet Development and Cooperation Forum" aim to enhance digital transformation in partner regions [4]. Group 4: Future Directions - The article outlines a vision for a fair, open, and secure cyberspace, focusing on enhancing the voice of developing countries within the UN framework for cyberspace governance [5][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of multi-stakeholder participation in international dialogues, encouraging contributions from various sectors, including technology and civil society [6]. - The promotion of the "Digital Silk Road" aims to improve digital infrastructure and security, particularly for developing nations, while fostering local talent through training and knowledge exchange [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in sales and market share of Ericsson and Nokia in the Chinese 5G market due to geopolitical tensions and shifts in customer spending patterns, highlighting the challenges faced by Western telecom suppliers in China [3][5][7]. Group 1: 5G Infrastructure in China - China has built 4.83 million 5G base stations by the end of November, with an increase of 579,000 from the previous year, surpassing the total number installed in Europe since the technology's inception [2]. - The expected explosive growth in 5G spending in China makes it an attractive market for companies like Ericsson and Nokia, especially compared to the more regulated European market [2]. Group 2: Sales Decline of Ericsson - Ericsson's revenue from Chinese customers fell sharply from nearly $1.8 billion in 2019 to approximately $0.798 billion in 2025, representing a decline of over 40% [3]. - The company's market share in China has significantly decreased, with its revenue from the region accounting for only 3% of total sales in the latest quarterly report [3]. - In 2021, Ericsson's sales in China nearly halved to about $1.1 billion, attributed to geopolitical actions against Huawei and ZTE [3]. Group 3: Nokia's Market Challenges - Nokia's market share in China is reported to be only 3% as of 2025, with a significant drop in revenue from nearly €2.2 billion ($2.6 billion) in 2019 to about €1.1 billion ($1.3 billion) in 2025 [4][5]. - The company has hinted at a complete exit from the Chinese mobile communications market, citing national security concerns [5]. - Nokia's revenue in the Greater China region is projected to decline by 19% to €913 million ($1.08 billion) by 2025, which is only 42% of the revenue from seven years ago [5]. Group 4: Strategic Moves and Workforce Reduction - Nokia's acquisition of its subsidiary Nokia Shanghai Bell for €501 million ($592 million) aims to simplify its operations in China while potentially reducing expenditures [6]. - Both Ericsson and Nokia have significantly reduced their workforce in China, with Ericsson's employee count dropping from approximately 14,000 in mid-2021 to about 9,500 by the end of the previous year [7]. - The anticipated exit of both companies from the Chinese market raises concerns about their future in the global 6G market, as Chinese operators invest rapidly in mobile network technology [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the "2025 China Positive Energy Network Boutique Collection and Broadcasting Activity," emphasizing the theme "You and I Striving, China Advancing," which aims to promote positive energy in the online space as the country approaches significant milestones in its development [1][2]. Group 1: National Development Achievements - The year 2025 marks the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is a crucial year for advancing towards the second centenary goal, with significant projects like the "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field and the "Hualong One" nuclear power unit contributing to China's energy transition [2]. - The total number of 5G base stations has surpassed 4 million, indicating the gradual realization of a digitally interconnected China [2]. Group 2: Stories of Ordinary People - Numerous inspiring stories of ordinary individuals have emerged, such as a 97-year-old retired teacher who has volunteered for over 20 years to tutor left-behind children, and a village leader who organized an emergency evacuation during a landslide [3]. - Young volunteers, like a rescue team member who has participated in nearly a thousand rescue missions, exemplify the spirit of dedication and service in contemporary society [3]. Group 3: Building a Positive Online Environment - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a clean and positive online environment, where stories of ordinary heroes and national achievements foster a culture of virtue and aspiration among netizens [4]. - The initiative encourages collective participation in promoting positive energy through impactful online content, aiming to document the great era and contribute to the construction of a modern socialist country [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid expansion and integration of 5G technology into various sectors of the economy, with significant growth in infrastructure and user adoption [1][2] - By the end of 2025, the number of 5G base stations in China is projected to reach 4.838 million, accounting for 37.6% of mobile phone base stations, with an average of 34.4 stations per 10,000 people, exceeding the "14th Five-Year Plan" target by 8.4 stations [1] - The number of 5G users in China has reached 1.204 billion, contributing to the flourishing of application ecosystems and innovative business models [1] Group 2 - There are over 826,000 existing 5G-related enterprises in China, with approximately 216,000 new registrations expected by 2025, indicating a consistent annual growth trend in the number of 5G-related companies [2] - The top regions for 5G-related enterprises are Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Beijing, with over 105,000, 54,000, and 53,000 companies respectively, followed by Shandong and Sichuan [2] - Comprehensive risk assessments of partners are becoming standard practice to prevent project delays, technology leaks, and commercial risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the downfall of Flextronics (伟创力) after it severed ties with Huawei in response to U.S. sanctions, highlighting the consequences of its actions and the resilience of Huawei in overcoming challenges [2][38]. Group 1: Flextronics' Relationship with Huawei - Flextronics was a key partner for Huawei, receiving $2.5 billion in orders in 2018, which accounted for 10% of its total revenue [6][9]. - The company invested $5 billion to build a factory in Changsha dedicated to Huawei, demonstrating the importance of this partnership [9]. - Following the U.S. sanctions on Huawei in May 2019, Flextronics quickly halted production and withheld $700 million worth of Huawei's materials, disrupting Huawei's supply chain [10][11][13][15]. Group 2: Consequences for Flextronics - Flextronics' revenue dropped by 3.48% and net profit plummeted by 61.4% in Q1 2019, continuing a trend of financial decline [29]. - The company's market ranking fell from the second to the fifth largest electronics manufacturer globally, losing market share to competitors like BYD and Foxconn [31]. - Flextronics sold its Changsha factory at a loss and faced significant operational challenges, with a debt ratio reaching 78.4% [33][29]. Group 3: Huawei's Resilience - Huawei swiftly adapted by reallocating orders to domestic manufacturers like Foxconn and BYD, ensuring continuity in its supply chain [21][22]. - The company increased its investment in R&D, leading to the launch of products free from U.S. components, such as the Mate 60 Pro with self-developed 5G chips [24]. - Huawei's operating system, HarmonyOS, gained over 700 million users, establishing itself as the third-largest mobile operating system globally [27].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China reported that by the end of 2025, the telecommunications industry will maintain steady growth, achieving various development goals, including reaching 4.838 million 5G base stations, exceeding the "14th Five-Year Plan" target by 8.4 stations per 10,000 people [1] Group 1: Telecommunications Business Growth - By the end of 2025, the total telecommunications business volume is expected to grow by 9.1% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 1.75 trillion yuan, a 0.7% increase [1] - The revenue share from emerging businesses such as cloud computing, big data, IoT, and data centers has risen to 25.7% [1] - The global share of China's declared essential patents for 5G standards reached 42%, with significant progress in 6G system architecture and key technology validation [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The construction goals for 5G and gigabit optical networks have been exceeded, achieving gigabit access in all counties and 5G coverage in over 95% of administrative villages [1] - By the end of 2025, 5G-A will cover over 330 cities, with pilot deployments of 10-gigabit optical networks in 168 communities, factories, and parks [1] - The total length of the national optical cable network has reached 74.99 million kilometers, with data center racks provided by three major telecom companies totaling 938,000, and an addition of 108,000 racks expected in 2025 [1] Group 3: User Scale and Digitalization - By the end of 2025, the mobile phone user base is projected to reach 1.827 billion, with 5G mobile phone users accounting for 1.204 billion [2] - The fixed broadband access user base is expected to reach 691 million, while the number of mobile IoT terminal users will grow by 8.7% to 2.888 billion [2] - The mobile internet access traffic is anticipated to grow by 17.3% year-on-year, with deep integration of 5G and gigabit optical networks into 91 categories of the national economy, and the industrial internet achieving full coverage across 41 industrial categories [2]

Group 1: China Commercial Rocket - In 2026, China Commercial Rocket Company aims to achieve breakthroughs in reusable technology and successfully complete the maiden flight and recovery of its main rocket [1] Group 2: Goldman Sachs Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts an influx of 3.6 trillion yuan in new funds into the Chinese stock market, driven by profit growth [2] - Approximately 2 trillion yuan is expected from individual investors, while institutional investors, particularly insurance companies, are projected to contribute around 1.6 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: SK Hynix AI Investment - SK Hynix plans to invest 10 billion USD to establish an AI solutions company in the United States, aiming to create a new growth engine in artificial intelligence [3] - The company will restructure its California-based Solidigm subsidiary to form the new AI company while maintaining brand continuity [3] Group 4: Shanghai Gold Exchange - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted the margin level for silver forward contracts from 19% to 20% and increased the price fluctuation limit from 18% to 19% effective January 30, 2026 [4] Group 5: Solid-State Battery Demand - TrendForce estimates that demand for solid-state batteries from humanoid robots could exceed 74 GWh by 2035, growing over a thousand times from 2026 levels [5] Group 6: SK Hynix Financial Performance - SK Hynix reported record-high operating profit of over 47 trillion KRW (approximately 228.8 billion RMB) and sales exceeding 97 trillion KRW in 2025, with Q4 sales up 66.1% year-on-year [6] - The operating profit margin reached 58%, the highest since Q3 2018 [6] Group 7: New Listings in China - In 2025, 116 new companies were listed in the domestic market, raising a total of 134.141 billion yuan [7][8] Group 8: Shenzhen Robotics Company - Shenzhen-based Zhongqing Robotics has completed its share reform, changing its name to Shenzhen Zhongqing Robotics Technology Co., Ltd., to optimize its capital structure for future operations [9] Group 9: Telecom Infrastructure Growth - By the end of 2025, China's three major telecom operators are expected to provide 938,000 data center racks, an increase of 108,000 from the previous year [10] - The number of 5G base stations is projected to reach 4.838 million, with a net increase of 588,000 from the previous year, accounting for 37.6% of all mobile phone base stations [11]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that by the end of 2025, China's telecommunications industry will maintain steady growth, achieving various development goals [1] Telecommunications Business Growth - By the end of 2025, the total telecommunications business volume is expected to grow by 9.1% year-on-year, with telecommunications revenue reaching 1.75 trillion yuan, a 0.7% increase [1] - The revenue share from emerging businesses such as cloud computing, big data, IoT, and data centers has risen to 25.7% [1] 5G Infrastructure Development - By the end of 2025, the number of 5G base stations in China will reach 4.838 million, with an average of 34.4 5G base stations per 10,000 people, exceeding the target of 8.4 stations set in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The number of 5G standard essential patent declarations accounts for 42% of the global total [1] - The construction goals for 5G and gigabit optical networks have been exceeded, achieving gigabit access in all counties and 95% of administrative villages having 5G coverage [1] User Growth and Digitalization - By the end of 2025, the mobile phone user base is projected to reach 1.827 billion, with 5G mobile phone users numbering 1.204 billion [1] - Fixed broadband access users are expected to reach 691 million, while mobile IoT terminal users will grow to 2.888 billion, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase [1] - The mobile internet access traffic is anticipated to grow by 17.3% year-on-year, with deep integration of 5G and gigabit optical networks into the national economy across 91 major categories [1] - The industrial internet has achieved full coverage across 41 industrial categories, with over 23,000 "5G + industrial internet" projects demonstrating significant empowerment effects [1]