Economic Growth and Inflation - Russia's GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 1%, a slowdown from 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, primarily due to measures aimed at reducing inflation [2] - The inflation rate in Russia has decreased to 5.6% in 2025, down from 9.5% in 2024, with a year-to-date annualized inflation rate of 6.4% as of January 26 [3] - The Central Bank of Russia has adjusted the benchmark interest rate, which peaked at 21% in the first half of 2025 and was reduced to 18% in the second half, maintaining a "moderately tight" stance to prevent inflation rebound [3] Factors Contributing to Economic Decline - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted financial resources towards military spending, limiting investments in production and technology [4] - Long-term impacts of Western sanctions have led to technological blockades, hindering industrial upgrades and weakening the industrial base [4] - High borrowing costs, reduced demand, and increased military expenditures have tightened fiscal conditions, contributing to economic slowdown [5] Sectoral Performance - Key sectors such as transportation, construction, and certain extraction industries, particularly coal, oil, and gas, have underperformed due to the Central Bank's interest rate hikes [5] - Investment growth in Russia has stagnated, with fixed asset investment projected to show zero growth by the end of 2025, marking the end of rapid growth driven by state spending and import substitution [5] Future Economic Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainty poses significant challenges for Russia's economy, with energy exports constrained and international oil prices declining [6] - The government plans to increase the value-added tax rate from 20% to 22% starting in 2026, which is expected to impact consumer prices and inflation [6] - Experts suggest that the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely lead to sustained economic decline unless significant changes occur [7]

俄罗斯近日交出了2025年的经济答卷。据央视新闻报道，俄罗斯总统普京3日表示，俄罗斯2025年国内 生产总值增长1%，增速放缓符合预期。 普京当天在莫斯科就经济问题召开会议时说，2025年，俄罗斯经济增长率低于2023年的4.1%和2024年 的4.3%，主要是因为采取了旨在降低通胀的专项措施。 2025年12月，普京曾在"年度盘点"活动上表示，过去三年累计增长率达9.7%。 为什么下滑 其次，在韦进深看来，美欧经济制裁的长期影响逐渐显现，俄罗斯遭遇技术封锁，产业升级受阻。比 如，美西方对俄罗斯在关键技术领域的出口管制，限制了俄罗斯获取先进技术和设备，导致其产业升级 进程放缓，工业基础进一步削弱。 再者，韦进深认为，俄罗斯传统优势产业面临巨大压力，石油天然气出口受限，国有能源企业调整战略 重心增加了成本。此外，俄罗斯金融体系与国际金融市场的联系减弱，也是俄经济增速下滑的因素之 一。"俄罗斯金融市场的流动性下降，融资成本上升。"他说。 普京给出的数据显示，俄罗斯2025年通胀率已经下降到5.6%，低于2024年的9.5%。另外，截至1月26 日，俄今年年化通胀率为6.4%。普京预计，今年俄通胀率有望降至5%。 ...