摘要1月4日欧洲时段，尽管2025年白银以近150%的涨幅领跑贵金属，铂金亦上涨超126%，钯金上涨约 80%，但铂族金属整体表现仍滞后于贵金属板块。 机构分析师指出，全球向"战时经济"靠拢将激励关键矿物囤积，相关政策调查及"即时生产"向"以防万 一"库存模式转变，将持续阻止全球库存回升，加剧市场极端紧张。 技术分析 市场对2026年价格展望存在分歧，看涨观点预计铂金有望触及每盎司2000美元，下半年均价约1800美 元，因结构性短缺可能推动价格逐步走高。 主要风险在于若美国未对铂族金属加征关税，可能导致铂钯流入美国市场，增加交易所库存，从而改变 供需平衡，甚至使市场从短缺转为少量过剩。 【要闻速递】 分析师认为，投资者在2026年应将关注点从金银拓宽至铂金及潜在钯金，因收紧的供应条件与坚韧的需 求有望在年内支撑其价格。⑶铂钯需求约80%来自汽车行业的催化转化器，但电动车普及加速曾构成长 期逆风；随着电动车增长预期被适度下调，内燃机汽车需求在美国等地保持强劲，为铂族金属需求提供 持续支撑。 除汽车领域外，铂金在玻璃制造和电子行业也扮演重要角色，需求预计保持稳健，但供应能否跟上存 疑，世界铂金投资协会指出市场在 ...

1. 大家好，欢迎阅读本期的国际观察。今天，小锐将关注欧洲多个国家高调组建志愿联盟并派遣军队支 持乌克兰的这一重大变化。 2. 曾几何时，欧洲各国在考虑是否提供5000顶防弹头盔时，经过了近半个 月的深思熟虑，保持着谨慎的姿态。可是，现在，多个国家却主动集结军队，直面俄罗斯，这种迅速转 变的态度，简直是地缘政治格局中的一场惊天逆转。 3. 表面上看，这些举动是对俄乌战争局势的军事回应，但实质上，它早已超越了战争本身，正在引发全 球权力结构的深刻变化。 4. 在这种背景下，人民币的国际化是否会迎来前所未有的契机？为何欧洲突 然采取如此强硬的姿态与俄罗斯对抗？全球资本流动将如何改变我们日常生活的格局？这些问题都值得 我们深入探讨。 5. 多国派兵的背后，可能成为新一轮金融危机的导火索。 6. 要想理解欧洲此次军事介入的深层动机， 我们必须掌握一个基本的规律：资本天生趋向安全，避开风险。它们会流向那些安全、可预见、制度稳 定的区域。 17. 对美国来说，这是控制战略成本；但对欧洲而言，这无异于一场系统性灾难的开端。 18. 过去两 年，欧盟及其成员国已经向乌克兰提供了接近2000亿美元的援助、贷款和财政担保，然而， ...

#第一批免签去俄罗斯的中产傻眼了#免签俄囧：当中国中产的"说走就走"撞上俄罗斯的"伏特加式粗 粝"2025年12月的莫斯科机场，一群中国游客拖着行李箱，脸上还挂着免签政策的兴奋劲儿——直到他 们掏出手机，发现流量图标像被冻住一样纹丝不动。这场"说走就走"的浪漫之旅，开场就是一场全方位 的"伏特加式暴击"。落地第一坑，手机秒变板砖。新入境的境外卡被强制"安全静默"24小时，翻译软 件、导航APP集体罢工，游客们站在机场出口，像被扔进陌生星球的宇航员。有人试图用肢体语言拦出 租车，司机比划的手势比红场阅兵方阵还复杂，最后只能咬牙花三倍价钱坐上"黑车"，心里默念"这波 血亏"。更绝的是GPS定位，人在红场拍洋葱头教堂，地图却显示"您已抵达谢列梅捷沃机场"，自由行 瞬间变成"盲走挑战赛"，路牌上的西里尔字母像天书，游客们边走边猜"这是往克里姆林宫还是往西伯 利亚"。支付系统更是大型翻车现场。微信支付宝在这片土地彻底"失联"，Visa/Master卡因制裁成了废 塑料卡片，银联覆盖率不到三成，90%的商户只认现金。游客们每天像会计对账似的清点卢布，有人买 杯咖啡找零时手抖，差点把钱包当筹码押给店员。更魔幻的是隐性风险— ...

以下文章来源于旅界 ，作者theodore熙少 旅界 . 跟踪时代浪潮，讲述文旅商业好故事。 本文来自微信公众号： 旅界 ，作者：theodore熙少，原文标题：《第一批免签去俄罗斯的中产，傻 眼了》，头图来自：视觉中国 最近，俄罗斯对华免签消息一出，给不少身边朋友整激动了。 毕竟早在9月中国对俄免签后，普京曾给出对等免签承诺，这让很多人苦等了3个月后，一度以为只 是张口惠而实不至的空头支票。 现在俄罗斯对中国免签真的来了，这对于很多早已厌倦了东南亚海岛、又因为日本航班取消而头疼的 中国游客来说，显然是天降喜讯。 家在广东做外贸生意的90后阿豪，是免签后第一批踏上莫斯科的中国游客。 他对俄罗斯想象，完全建立在过去十年的全球旅行经验之上，落地，插卡，打车，入住，这应该是一 套行云流水的标准动作。 但现实给了他狠狠一记耳光。 阿豪落地谢列梅捷沃机场的那一刻，习惯性地掏出手机准备连网报平安，他提前在国内买好的漫游包 显示已激活，信号格那个位置，却始终是个令人心慌的圆圈。 一 阿豪开始以为是机场屏蔽，拖着行李箱走了两公里，依然是一座孤岛，才发现事情不对，只好斥巨资 上了辆黑车。 千辛万苦到酒店，阿豪好不容易连上酒店W ...

Core Insights - Ukraine's large-scale drone attacks on Russian energy facilities aim to weaken Russia's energy supply and military capabilities, impacting global oil prices and energy security [1][19][20] - The attacks have targeted critical infrastructure, including refineries, petrochemical plants, and fuel storage, indicating a systematic approach to disrupt Russia's wartime economy [16][18] Summary by Sections Attack Scale and Impact - Ukraine launched a significant drone assault involving hundreds of drones across multiple regions, including Moscow and Crimea, leading to the closure of 13 airports for safety checks [3][4][8] - The frequency and scale of these attacks have escalated, with Russia's defense systems intercepting a substantial number of drones, yet some still managed to hit key targets [4][6] Targeted Infrastructure - Key targets included energy facilities such as oil refineries and meat production plants, which are vital for Russia's economy and military logistics [11][13][16] - The attacks on food supply facilities highlight the importance of food security alongside energy supply in modern warfare [11] Economic Consequences - Damage to energy infrastructure, such as the NS-Oil refinery, could lead to fuel supply shortages and increased domestic fuel prices, affecting both civilian and military transportation costs [13][19] - The disruption of industrial production in regions like Stavropol could impact Russia's export capabilities, further straining its economy [11][16] Global Energy Market Implications - The attacks have raised concerns about the stability of Russia's energy supply, which is crucial for global energy markets, potentially leading to fluctuations in international oil prices [20][22] - China's energy security may be at risk due to its reliance on Russian energy imports, necessitating a reevaluation of its energy strategies [19][22] Strategic Considerations - The systematic targeting of critical infrastructure suggests a strategic intent to undermine Russia's military flexibility and economic stability [8][16] - The ongoing conflict may lead to increased geopolitical tensions and a shift in global energy trade dynamics, emphasizing the need for countries to enhance their energy security measures [22]

Group 1 - The core issue facing Russia is the financial burden of the prolonged war, leading to increased taxes and rising costs for citizens [1][3][9] - The Russian government plans to raise the value-added tax from 20% to 22% starting January 2026, which will significantly impact consumer spending [3][6] - Each Russian household is expected to incur an additional annual cost of 82,000 rubles (approximately 7,100 RMB) due to tax increases and rising energy prices [7][10] Group 2 - Energy prices are set to rise significantly, with natural gas increasing by 9.4%, electricity by 10.9%, and transmission fees by 14.3%, further straining household budgets [5][6] - The Russian economy heavily relies on energy exports, with revenue from resources decreasing by 21% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year [10][12] - Military spending has surged, with 2024 expenditures projected at $149 billion and 2025's first half spending reaching $106 billion, accounting for over 40% of the federal budget [10][12] Group 3 - The war has led to a depletion of military resources, forcing the use of unconventional means such as horses for transportation on the battlefield [12][14] - The reliance on outdated military assets and the mobilization of livestock for combat illustrate the dire state of the Russian military [12][16] - The ongoing conflict is causing significant societal strain, with ordinary citizens bearing the brunt of the financial and social costs [16]

Group 1 - The U.S. is pressuring the EU to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, with potential increases up to 100%, which could lead to a united front of 28 countries against China [1][3] - China has not yielded to U.S. pressure, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasizing that excessive tariffs harm all parties involved and warning against unilateral trade restrictions [3][5] - Russia has unexpectedly made concessions to the U.S. regarding energy cooperation, indicating a willingness to discuss projects like Sakhalin-1, which could signal a shift in geopolitical dynamics [5][7] Group 2 - Russia's economic situation is dire, with a projected GDP growth of only 1.5% for 2025 and a second-quarter growth rate of just 1.1%, prompting the need for concessions to the U.S. [7][8] - The potential for U.S.-Russia energy cooperation could create internal divisions within the EU and NATO, which aligns with Russia's strategic interests [8][10] - The U.S. is currently an energy-exporting nation, with projected oil exports reaching 10 million barrels per day in 2024, suggesting that any cooperation with Russia may be more opportunistic than strategic [10]

Core Viewpoint - Hungary's EU Affairs Minister, Janos Borkai, emphasized that the EU should focus on enhancing competitiveness rather than adopting a wartime economy, stating that high energy prices must be addressed for this goal to be achieved [1] Group 1: Energy Prices and Economic Policy - Borkai criticized the EU's sanctions and trade policies, arguing that high energy prices are not solely due to purchasing Russian oil and gas, but rather stem from flaws in the EU's sanctions, trade, industrial policies, and the green transition [1] - He asserted that without improvements in these areas, energy prices will not decrease [1] Group 2: EU's Involvement in Ukraine - Borkai expressed skepticism regarding the EU's increased involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as suggested by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, highlighting the need for the EU to address internal issues such as competitiveness, high energy prices, and housing difficulties [1] - He stated that Ukraine cannot bypass legal and political processes to join the EU, as this would contradict EU treaties, despite member states being able to discuss matters with non-EU countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe economic consequences of the ongoing war in Russia, highlighting the increasing financial strain on various sectors, the rising military expenditures, and the paradox of low unemployment amidst widespread business failures [6][9][10]. Group 1: Economic Impact of the War - As of mid-2024, 141,000 legal entities in Russia declared bankruptcy, with manufacturing, construction, and trade accounting for over 70% of these failures [10]. - By the end of 2024, 66% of the labor population had personal debts totaling 38.5 trillion rubles, with a household overdue loan rate of 10.5% in Q1 2025, indicating growing financial pressure [7]. - Despite the collapse of numerous small and medium enterprises, the unemployment rate remained at a historical low of 2.2% in June 2025, raising questions about the accuracy of employment data [9]. Group 2: Military Expenditures - In 2024, Russia's direct defense spending surged to 10.8 trillion rubles, tripling compared to 2021, with total military expenditures reaching at least 13.85 trillion rubles, accounting for 38% of the budget and 7.7% of GDP [10][11]. - The military budget for 2025 is projected to increase by 25% to 13.5 trillion rubles, with total war-related expenditures expected to exceed 16.55 trillion rubles [10][11]. - The total salary expenditure for the military in 2025 is estimated to be at least 39 trillion rubles, reflecting the significant financial burden of maintaining military personnel [13][14]. Group 3: Resource Depletion and Economic Strain - The war has led to a drastic reduction in Russia's arms exports, plummeting from a stable level of $14-15 billion to below $1 billion since 2023, while military equipment imports have surged [20][23]. - The procurement of military equipment from abroad is expected to rise from 180 billion rubles in 2021 to 440 billion rubles by 2025, indicating a reliance on foreign supplies due to domestic production limitations [23]. - The overall military spending in 2025 is projected to exceed 35 trillion rubles, with additional costs for repairs, weapon supplies, and logistics, compounding the economic challenges faced by the country [26]. Group 4: Inflation and Public Sentiment - Inflation in Russia has decreased to 8.8% in 2025, but real wages have declined, with essential food prices rising significantly, leading to a decrease in purchasing power for the populace [36]. - The government has introduced a "war tax" on businesses with annual revenues exceeding 1 billion rubles, alongside increased income tax rates, reflecting the financial strain on the economy [38]. - Public sentiment is shifting as the war drags on, with increasing casualties and declining living standards potentially undermining support for the conflict [44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Europe's strategic preparations for potential conflict with Russia, particularly through the readiness of key ports like Rotterdam for military logistics [1][3] - The European infrastructure is transitioning into a wartime mode, indicating a shift from theoretical discussions to practical implementations of a wartime economy, as emphasized by French President Macron [1][3] - There is a growing consensus among European leaders, including Macron and German Chancellor Merz, advocating for a robust military response and increased defense spending to counter Russian aggression [3][5] Group 2 - Eastern European leaders express concerns that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is merely a precursor to broader Russian expansion, urging NATO to prepare adequately [3][5] - Despite Russia's current military and economic struggles, European nations perceive an opportunity to strategically weaken Russia by providing military aid to Ukraine and enhancing their own military capabilities [5][6] - The long-term objective for Europe is to systematically diminish Russia's ability to project power externally, aiming to reduce it to a regionally focused state that cannot influence European security dynamics [6]