证券研究报告 宏观 广义财政支出降幅有所收窄 ——12 月财政数据点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日│中国内地 动态点评 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅继续收窄，而修正后的广义财政支出（季调后） 环比增长略有放缓，显示高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力度偏紧、广义财政自 去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金储备。具体看，12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11 月的 1.7%继续 收窄至 0.7%，剔除注资特别国债和用于化债的"特殊专项债"后同比降幅亦较 11 月的 3.8%收窄至 0.8%；然而，修正后的（季调后）广义财政支出环比增 长从 11 月的 33.8%放缓至 10.9%、可能反映高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力 度偏紧、广义财政自去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金 储备（参见《财政能否助力"开门红"?》，2025/12/28）。具体看， ▪ 支出端而言， 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅边际收窄，而季调后剔除 注资特别国债和"特殊"专项债的广义财政支出增长环比有所放缓。12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11月的 ...

Economic Indicators - As of January 4, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is 49.83%, also down 0.01 percentage points[9] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is 49.93%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from November, and the demand index is 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[10] - The ECI investment index is 49.85%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.64%, down 0.02 percentage points[9] Consumer Behavior - During the New Year holiday from January 1-3, 2026, an estimated 590 million people traveled, averaging 198 million per day, which is lower than the May Day and National Day holidays[2] - The average daily box office revenue during the New Year holiday was 245 million yuan, lower than 306 million yuan in 2025 and 512 million yuan in 2024[2] Investment Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.47% week-on-week, indicating a marginal recovery in the real estate market[33] - The supply of land in 100 major cities decreased by 9.06% week-on-week, totaling 10.28 million square meters[33] Export and Trade - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 6.80%, down 1.30 percentage points from November, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[38] - The Shanghai export container freight index increased by 103.40 points to 1656.32 points, reflecting a recovery in export prices[43] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 4, 2026, is -0.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[15] - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 1,171 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 13,236 billion yuan[50]