Revenue Analysis - In December, the year-on-year decline in general fiscal revenue widened to 18.5%, compared to a 5.2% decline in November[5] - The general public budget revenue growth rate fell to -25% in December from 0% in November, with tax revenue decreasing from 3.2% to -11.6%[5] - Non-tax revenue continued to show negative growth, with a year-on-year decline of 48.1% in December, worsening from 10.8% in November[5] Expenditure Analysis - The year-on-year decline in general fiscal expenditure narrowed to 0.7% in December from 1.7% in November, while the adjusted month-on-month growth rate slowed to 10.9% from 33.8%[1] - The general public budget expenditure growth rate improved to -1.5% in December from -4.2% in November, with the overall budget completion rate for the year at 96.8%, lower than the average of 98.9% from 2020 to 2024[8] - Government fund expenditure growth rate slightly decreased to 1.5% in December from 2.8% in November, supported by increased issuance of special bonds[8] Future Outlook - The government is expected to maintain fiscal support to achieve a strong economic start in 2026, with a focus on the execution pace of fiscal policies[2] - The issuance of government bonds has increased year-on-year, indicating a proactive fiscal stance to support economic growth[2] - The marginal improvement in the real estate market is expected to positively influence related tax revenues, although overall fiscal revenue remains under pressure[5]

Economic Indicators - As of January 4, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is 49.83%, also down 0.01 percentage points[9] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is 49.93%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from November, and the demand index is 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[10] - The ECI investment index is 49.85%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.64%, down 0.02 percentage points[9] Consumer Behavior - During the New Year holiday from January 1-3, 2026, an estimated 590 million people traveled, averaging 198 million per day, which is lower than the May Day and National Day holidays[2] - The average daily box office revenue during the New Year holiday was 245 million yuan, lower than 306 million yuan in 2025 and 512 million yuan in 2024[2] Investment Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.47% week-on-week, indicating a marginal recovery in the real estate market[33] - The supply of land in 100 major cities decreased by 9.06% week-on-week, totaling 10.28 million square meters[33] Export and Trade - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 6.80%, down 1.30 percentage points from November, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[38] - The Shanghai export container freight index increased by 103.40 points to 1656.32 points, reflecting a recovery in export prices[43] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 4, 2026, is -0.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[15] - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 1,171 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 13,236 billion yuan[50]