Group 1: Inflation Trends - In the US, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32% in July, aligning with expectations, with forecasts suggesting a monthly increase of 0.3%-0.4% in the coming months due to tariffs affecting core goods prices, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and clothing [1][2] - The forecast for core CPI/PCE inflation rates is projected to reach 3.2% by December, with expectations of a decline towards target levels next year as tariff impacts diminish and the labor market cools [1][2] Group 2: China's Economic Situation - In contrast to the US, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell into deep deflation, with a forecasted PPI inflation rate of -2.8% for this year and -1.0% for next year, attributed to severe overcapacity issues [2][3] Group 3: Economic Data Reliability - Concerns have been raised regarding the reliability of US economic data, with evidence of a slight decline in data quality over the long term, potentially impacting the information value of economic indicators [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin has generated skepticism in the market regarding its potential to significantly alter Russian gas supplies or lead to a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine, with natural gas prices remaining stable [7] - The meeting is not expected to result in substantial changes to Russian oil supply, as constraints are primarily due to OPEC+ quotas and investment levels rather than US sanctions [7] Group 5: UK Monetary Policy - Following hawkish signals from the Bank of England, the expected timeline for interest rate adjustments has been pushed back, with forecasts for the terminal rate now anticipated to be reached in April instead of March [8] - The GBP is expected to face depreciation risks, leading to revised forecasts for EUR/GBP and GBP/USD exchange rates [8] Group 6: Tariff Impacts - The US has announced higher tariffs on India and Switzerland, which are expected to negatively impact economic growth in these countries [9] Group 7: Economic and Market Predictions - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with specific forecasts for major economies including the US (1.7%), China (4.7%), and the Euro area (1.2%) [10] - Policy rates are expected to adjust, with the US rate forecasted at 3.13% for 2026 [10] Group 8: Commodity and Currency Markets - Predictions for commodity prices include Brent crude oil at $111 per barrel and natural gas prices at $3.90 per million British thermal units for 2025 [12] - Currency forecasts indicate a potential increase in the EUR/GBP exchange rate to 0.87 over the next three months [8]

联邦政府大裁员后，非农数据还依旧可靠吗？ 据纽约时报报道，近年来，公众对特朗普政府发布的经济数据产生怀疑，尤其是在劳工统计局削减用于 消费者价格指数的数据采集后。然而，经济学家和政府内部人士普遍认为，目前数据仍可信。真正的问 题在于统计数据质量的长期下滑。回应率下降、预算紧张，使得依赖调查的传统统计方法越来越难以维 持高质量。特朗普重返白宫后，解散统计顾问委员会、冻结招聘、推动员工买断，更加剧了人手短缺问 题，迫使统计机构减少采样工作。尽管目前数据尚可靠，但也警告未来波动性和修正幅度可能加大。 ...