朋友们，今天带你们吃个惊天大瓜！谁能想到，堂堂超级大国的核心经济数据，竟然能像变魔术似的，"唰"一下就人间蒸发了？说的就是美国十月份那份让 全球翘首以盼的失业率报告！ 要搞懂这出好戏，得先明白美国是怎么统计就业的。他们有两套看家本领：一套是机构调查，就像清点仓库货品，随时都能数；另一套是家庭调查，这就像 问你上周三早餐吃了啥，过了半个月谁还记得？ 妙就妙在时机！政府停摆正好让家庭调查泡了汤，等复工时黄花菜都凉了。这时间点卡得，比偶像剧里的巧合还精彩！活像气象员在台风天把风速仪弄丢 了，然后信誓旦旦地说："今天风和日丽！" 现在美国经济什么状况大家都懂：物价坐火箭往上蹿，制造业半死不活，连金融大鳄都在预言明年要 recession。更绝的是，江湖传言十月份失业率要冲破 4%这条警戒线。就在这个关键时刻，最可能"炸雷"的数据居然不翼而飞了！ 这下可把美联储主席鲍威尔坑惨了！想象一下，主治医师正要开处方，结果心电图、X光片全没了，只能靠掐指一算来治病。鲍威尔现在就是这副惨状：加 息怕把经济掐死，不加息又怕通胀诈尸。没了失业率这个"经济听诊器"，他简直成了闭着眼睛开战斗机的飞行员。 华尔街更是上演全武行！交易员们盯着 ...

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In the US, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32% in July, aligning with expectations, with forecasts suggesting a monthly increase of 0.3%-0.4% in the coming months due to tariffs affecting core goods prices, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and clothing [1][2] - The forecast for core CPI/PCE inflation rates is projected to reach 3.2% by December, with expectations of a decline towards target levels next year as tariff impacts diminish and the labor market cools [1][2] Group 2: China's Economic Situation - In contrast to the US, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell into deep deflation, with a forecasted PPI inflation rate of -2.8% for this year and -1.0% for next year, attributed to severe overcapacity issues [2][3] Group 3: Economic Data Reliability - Concerns have been raised regarding the reliability of US economic data, with evidence of a slight decline in data quality over the long term, potentially impacting the information value of economic indicators [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin has generated skepticism in the market regarding its potential to significantly alter Russian gas supplies or lead to a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine, with natural gas prices remaining stable [7] - The meeting is not expected to result in substantial changes to Russian oil supply, as constraints are primarily due to OPEC+ quotas and investment levels rather than US sanctions [7] Group 5: UK Monetary Policy - Following hawkish signals from the Bank of England, the expected timeline for interest rate adjustments has been pushed back, with forecasts for the terminal rate now anticipated to be reached in April instead of March [8] - The GBP is expected to face depreciation risks, leading to revised forecasts for EUR/GBP and GBP/USD exchange rates [8] Group 6: Tariff Impacts - The US has announced higher tariffs on India and Switzerland, which are expected to negatively impact economic growth in these countries [9] Group 7: Economic and Market Predictions - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with specific forecasts for major economies including the US (1.7%), China (4.7%), and the Euro area (1.2%) [10] - Policy rates are expected to adjust, with the US rate forecasted at 3.13% for 2026 [10] Group 8: Commodity and Currency Markets - Predictions for commodity prices include Brent crude oil at $111 per barrel and natural gas prices at $3.90 per million British thermal units for 2025 [12] - Currency forecasts indicate a potential increase in the EUR/GBP exchange rate to 0.87 over the next three months [8]

Core Viewpoint - There is growing skepticism regarding the reliability of non-farm payroll data following significant layoffs in the federal government, despite economists and insiders believing the current data remains credible [1] Group 1: Data Reliability - Public trust in economic data from the Trump administration has declined, particularly after cuts to data collection for the Consumer Price Index by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1] - Economists and government insiders generally maintain that the current data is still trustworthy, but there are concerns about the long-term decline in data quality [1] Group 2: Statistical Challenges - Decreasing response rates and budget constraints are making it increasingly difficult to maintain high-quality traditional statistical methods [1] - The disbandment of the statistical advisory committee, hiring freezes, and employee buyouts under the Trump administration have exacerbated staffing shortages, leading to reduced sampling efforts by statistical agencies [1] Group 3: Future Implications - While current data is deemed reliable, there are warnings that future volatility and the magnitude of revisions may increase [1]