Core Viewpoint - The current atmosphere in the US stock market appears unsettling, with signs of institutional investors pulling out despite the market's apparent stability [1][3]. Market Conditions - As of mid-July 2025, the S&P 500 has risen over 18% for the year, largely driven by the performance of major tech companies, with Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft contributing over 70% to the index's gains [3]. - The market's upward momentum is not supported by the real economy but rather by the Federal Reserve's signals regarding future interest rate cuts [3]. Investor Behavior - Notably, investor Rogers has liquidated all his US stock positions, indicating a strategic retreat due to perceived systemic risks [6][4]. - Historical precedents show that Rogers has successfully exited markets before major downturns, raising concerns about the current market's stability [6]. Sector-Specific Risks - The commercial real estate sector is facing significant challenges, with the national office vacancy rate reaching a historical high of 21.4%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [8]. - Many commercial properties are unable to refinance, leading to potential technical defaults that could impact regional banks heavily tied to these assets [8]. Broader Economic Concerns - State-level fiscal deficits are expanding, with over 20 states facing budget shortfalls for the 2025 fiscal year, including California's projected deficit of over $50 billion [8]. - The reliance on debt issuance by these states raises the risk of defaults if interest rates do not decrease [8]. Market Sentiment - The current market structure is heavily reliant on a few tech stocks, making it vulnerable to shocks if any part of this structure falters [10]. - Investor confidence is eroding, leading to budget cuts and hiring freezes across various sectors, indicating a shift towards a more conservative financial strategy [10].

Group 1 - Global market downturn triggered by geopolitical uncertainties, including US tariff policies and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.2% to 22,778 points and a trading volume of HKD 883.9 billion [1] - Analysts predict a potential second "slight" pullback in the market from late May to July, influenced by increased market supply from numerous financing projects in Hong Kong [1] - The performance of the A-share market, which is currently closed, may impact the Hang Seng Index due to a lack of support from mainland funds, with expectations of a strong performance upon reopening [1] Group 2 - Increased IPO pressure in the Hong Kong market has led to greater market supply, with high-profile companies engaging in large-scale placements, resulting in valuation pressures [2] - Structural bubbles are forming in the new consumption sector, where companies are experiencing a divergence between high valuations and underwhelming performance, necessitating market correction [2] - Analysts foresee opportunities in undervalued sectors in the second half of the year, while previously heavily financed sectors may face challenges [2]