2026年是"十五五"开局之年，也是全球宏观格局从"高波动"走向"弱平稳"的过渡年。 二、增长动能：从"外需超预期"到"内需再平衡" 2025年前三季度净出口对GDP贡献高达1.5个百分点，成为拉动增长的最大黑马；但2026年这一红利将 显著衰减。笔者预期，2026年出口增速将从2025年的4%-5%回落至3%左右，净出口对GDP的贡献降至 0.4个百分点，经济必须回归"内需再平衡"。 1.消费：政策"三箭齐发"撬动4.7%-4.8%增速 首先，以旧换新额度维持3000亿元左右，但品类由汽车、家电扩展至消费电子、家装、适老化产品；其 次，中央财政首次安排"育儿补贴"与学前教育免费试点，预计带动居民可支配收入增速提高0.3-0.4个百 分点；最后，地方层面通过"消费券+数字人民币红包"组合，重点撬动服务消费，2026年社会消费品零 售总额增速有望回升至4.7%-4.8%，服务消费增速或高于商品消费2-3个百分点。 本文在其最新论述基础上，结合多家机构展望，试图勾勒一幅2026年经济全景图：增长目标仍锚定5% 左右，但实际增速可能温和回落至4.5%-4.7%；通胀自底部抬升却仍在0%-1%区间"浅抬头"；政策主 ...

Group 1 - The event "2025 China Fund of Funds Conference" was successfully held in Suzhou, gathering over 200 representatives from government, industry associations, and leading investment institutions to discuss the future of the Chinese fund of funds industry [1] - The keynote speech by Guan Qingyou highlighted the current economic situation and industry opportunities, emphasizing the significant changes in both internal and external environments [2][3] Group 2 - The concept of "great contention" reflects the profound changes in the global landscape, with the VC/PE industry facing unprecedented challenges and complexities [3][4] - The U.S. bond market has seen significant sell-offs, while global central banks, including China's, are increasing gold reserves, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] - China is becoming a crucial hub for global manufacturing, with a unique industrial ecosystem that integrates various sectors [5] Group 3 - The "polarization effect" is intensifying, leading to extreme disparities in wealth and opportunities, with only a small percentage of entities benefiting from economic growth [6][7] - The VC/PE industry is undergoing deep adjustments, with state-owned capital now accounting for two-thirds of the total limited partners, reflecting a survival of the fittest scenario [6][7] Group 4 - Structural prosperity is emerging in specific sectors, presenting significant opportunities for those with foresight and high cognitive abilities [8][9] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal turning point, particularly in technology sectors such as AI, military, and robotics, which are expected to experience substantial growth [8][9] Group 5 - Three types of companies are identified as key investment opportunities: rainforest-type enterprises (large internet platforms), oasis-type enterprises (smaller innovative firms), and meadow-type enterprises (resilient companies with core technologies) [9]

Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The national real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with real estate development investment from January to August amounting to approximately 6.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [3] - New residential sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to 573 million square meters, with sales revenue dropping by 7.3% to 5.5 trillion yuan [3] - In August, the sales prices of residential properties in 70 major cities continued to decline, indicating an ongoing adjustment phase in the real estate market [3] Group 2: Shanghai Luxury Market Performance - Despite the overall market downturn, Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with the average price of the Shanghai Yihua Courtyard reaching 198,000 yuan per square meter during its fifth batch of sales [5] - A luxury property in Shanghai sold for over 73 million yuan, with all units being sold out within an hour of opening [5] - The average price of a luxury property in the second phase increased from 189,000 yuan to 205,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting an increase of over 8% [6] Group 3: Structural Factors Influencing Market Divergence - The rapid urbanization process is attracting high-net-worth individuals to core cities, creating strong demand for luxury properties [11] - Income disparity in China has led to a group of affluent buyers who view luxury homes as a preferred asset allocation, especially in the context of "asset scarcity" [13] - The divergence in the market reflects economic structural adjustments and is changing perceptions of wealth and investment [13] Group 4: Future Outlook for the Real Estate Market - Although the national real estate market remains sluggish, there are signs of improvement, such as a continuous decrease in unsold housing inventory over the past six months [15] - The traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to be crucial for stabilizing the market [16] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are adjusting housing policies to stimulate demand, which could revitalize the market [18]