证券研究报告 工业/能源 霍尔木兹变局可能助推能源转型加速 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 美国与以色列 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动联合军事打击，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹 海峡，我们认为这将通过三种路径影响能源供给及价格：1）供应中断风险 （途径霍尔木兹海峡的原油、天然气规模较高）；2）航线绕行增加运输时 间和成本；3）市场预期放大价格波动幅度。我们认为此次事件也将提升全 球各国对于能源安全与自主的紧迫性认知，加速能源转型从而减少对于中东 油气进口的依赖。我们推测： • 发电对 LNG 进口依赖度高的国家短期将先增加煤炭采购以应急，并 快速部署光储系统（包括户用光储），推升煤化工用煤需求； • 中长期则需要走向风光储+核电、绿氢制甲醇的自主可控解决方案。 我们重申推荐电新和煤炭板块，看好宁德时代 A/H、阳光电源、亿纬锂能、 天赐材料、华明装备、特变电工、伊顿、福斯特、Enphase、中国神华 H。 冲突或带来能源供给受阻及价格高企，储能需求有望得到拉动 光储系统可快速部署解燃眉之急，能源价格高企更显经济性；且自主可控。 能源保供诉求下，冲突将拉动受影响地区需求（参照俄乌冲突后欧洲储 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the launch of CIMC Enric's 50,000-ton green methanol project in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, marking it as the first large-scale production project of biomass methanol in China, amidst a growing interest in the green methanol sector [1] - The green methanol market is characterized by high prices and profits but low production rates, with production costs around 4,000 RMB per ton and selling prices reaching 1,000 USD per ton, indicating a significant profit margin that has not yet translated into widespread production [2] - The production of green methanol primarily relies on two main routes: biomass methanol and green hydrogen coupled with carbon dioxide, each facing distinct challenges in development [2][5] Group 2 - Biomass methanol production is currently the mainstream direction in the industry, with CIMC Enric adopting a pressurized circulating fluidized bed route, which is advantageous due to its compatibility with the complex composition of biomass [2][3] - The project has achieved stable production, overcoming common issues such as equipment blockage due to impurities in biomass, which has historically hindered similar projects [3] - The supply chain for biomass raw materials is a significant challenge, with CIMC Enric implementing a strategy of diversified sourcing and standardized processing to ensure stable supply and improve gasification stability [4] Group 3 - The green hydrogen route for methanol production is seen as a future trend for carbon reduction, but it currently faces high costs and challenges in storage and transportation, limiting its immediate application [5][6] - The demand for green methanol is primarily driven by international markets, particularly in Europe, where strict carbon tax policies are pushing for decarbonization in shipping [8] - The global fleet of methanol-powered ships is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a demand of 7 million tons by 2026 and over 14 million tons by 2030, highlighting the market potential for green methanol [9][10] Group 4 - China's green methanol market is still in its infancy, with projected production capacity increasing from 5.5 million tons in 2024 to 33.8 million tons by the end of 2025, as the number of production units expands from 2 to 9 [9][10] - Despite the rapid construction of green methanol facilities in China, the industry faces challenges such as initial technology maturity, stable raw material supply, and market demand, which may keep the average operating rate low in the early stages [10]

Report Information - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Methanol [1] - Research Analysts: Li Jin (Methanol), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Li Jie (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil), Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract decreased with a reduction in positions. The 09 main contract also reduced positions. The weighted contract showed a trend of opening low and moving lower, with a large - bodied negative candlestick having a long lower shadow, and an overall decline of 4.68% [6]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Geopolitical factors, such as the temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran, led to a sharp drop in WTI crude oil and a limit - down in domestic crude oil, which dragged down the methanol price. The short - term price fluctuation of methanol exceeded the fundamental range [7]. - Technically, in the hourly cycle, the RSI indicator entered the oversold area after a third entry into the overbought area and then a correction. The MACD fast and slow lines started to run below the zero - axis with the green bars continuously lengthening. In the daily cycle, the MACD red bars continued to shorten, and the RSI indicator fell from the overbought area. The short - term adjustment continued, and the short - term trend was regarded as a wide - range oscillation [7]. Industry News - The core device of Goldwind Science & Technology's 500,000 - ton green methanol project using green hydrogen was successfully hoisted, marking the project's entry into the full - scale equipment installation phase and starting Xing'an League's acceleration in the hydrogen energy field [15]. - A 500,000 - ton/year methanol - to - ethanol project in Yulin, with a total investment of 6.868 billion yuan, held a progress meeting. The project consists of four parts and includes multiple production units, with the 250,000 - ton/year vinyl acetate and auxiliary devices to be built and put into operation first [15]. Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price | Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Speculation Degree | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2501 | 2480 | 2407 | 2491 | 2350 | - 3.41% | 241,821 | 237,560 | - 5,280 | 1.02 | | MA2505 | 2403 | 2321 | 2407 | 2284 | - 3.53% | 4,601 | 5,316 | 88 | 0.87 | | MA2509 | 2488 | 2379 | 2495 | 2336 | - 4.99% | 2,891,579 | 896,735 | - 96,724 | 3.22 | [6]