" TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融购评论 与此同时，美国财政赤字持续扩大，危机凸显。截至2025年10月21日，美国联邦债务已达38万亿美元，距离2025年8月突破37万亿美元仅间隔两个多月， 创历史最快万亿级增速。2024财年美国联邦债务利息支出已超1万亿美元，占当年GDP的3.6%，成为仅次于社会保障的第二大财政支出。此外，在美国反 复将美元当成金融制裁"武器"后，美元信用危机日益加深，2025年2月以来，美元、美股、美债"三杀现象"多次出现，揭示了美元和美债存在的内在问 题。 美元与美债存在相互支撑关系。美元维持霸权地位，美债就能持续受到各国和地区央行及金融市场的追捧；美债作为核心安全资产促成美元国际循环，是 维系美元霸权体系的关键制度安排。自布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元与石油挂钩，既巩固了美元的国际货币地位，也为美债扩张埋下伏笔。 前瞻美债与美元 文 / 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 当前，国际竞争特别是大国竞争极为激烈。美国作为全球第一大经济体，正竭尽全力维持其全球霸权地位，特别是维护美元的世界主要储备货币地位和美 国资本市场的特殊影响力。与此同时，美国经济结构中的一些问题逐渐 ...

Group 1 - The uncertainty of the U.S. government's tariff and fiscal policies has shaken investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [4][2] - As of October 2025, the U.S. national debt has exceeded $37.86 trillion, with a federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for FY 2025, remaining at historically high levels [4] - The net interest cost of U.S. public debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, reflecting an approximately 8% increase from FY 2024, driven by rising debt and high interest rates [4] Group 2 - Future U.S. Treasury yields may remain volatile at high levels, and the strong position of the dollar may gradually weaken [4][2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor U.S. government policy dynamics, economic data, and global market changes to assess risks and make informed investment decisions [4][2] - A call for submissions has been made by the editorial team of Tsinghua Financial Review, focusing on the long-term perspective of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [4][3]