文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美债利率异常波动的核心驱动事件是美国减税法案及日债需求走弱。 在二者的影响下，美债利率5月份 出现三次大幅异常上升。从根源上看，此次美债下跌源自减税引发的债务可持续担忧，但5月20日，日债 拍卖走弱大幅加速了美债利率上涨，导致美债与美元走势明显分化。 美债期限溢价升至新高，反应了财政、通胀、货币和交易的扰动。 美债期限溢价去年10月转正，至5月 22日升至0.9%，成为影响利率走势的主导因素。4月30日以来，10年美债利率上升37BP，其中期限溢价 上升28BP，短端实际利率预期上涨11BP，期限溢价贡献达七成。 （二）《美丽大法案》的进展及争议？2026年赤字率或挑战8%，但对经济的边际贡献有限 共和党在参议院仅有三个席位优势，《美丽大法案》能否按期通过存在不确定性。 法案现已递交参议 院，各委员会或在6月上旬进行审议，6月中旬前后举行全体投票。若参议院对法案进行较大修改，需众 议院再次投票、或与参院"协调"消除分歧——集中在医疗补助、SALT领域。 法案以延续TCJA减税为主体，经济影响可类比2010年奥巴马延长减税政策，增量提振效果或较为有限。 延长现 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite the limited marginal economic contribution [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential modifications could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with an estimated deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over ten years, which cannot be offset by the anticipated $2.5 trillion in new tariffs [3][40] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]