文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 法案以延续TCJA减税为主体，经济影响可类比2010年奥巴马延长减税政策，增量提振效果或较为有限。 延长现有减税措施占比约80%，于2026年生效；新减税措施占比约20%，立即生效。奥巴马2010年12月及 2012年12月的减税延长措施，均未改变经济的既定轨迹。 法案或将使美国财政赤字明显扩大，即使加征全球关税也难以对冲。 法案将导致减税前置、减支后置， 进而大幅提升近年的赤字率。根据CBO测算，2026年的赤字率增量约为1.8个百分点。十年内，关税或可 带来约2.5万亿美元收入，不足以弥补法案的3.3万亿左右的赤字增量。 （三）美债利率及风险展望？利率或将进一步走高，风险因素仍可能积累扩大 5月，美国众议院通过《美丽大法案》，加剧了美国财政可持续性的担忧，10年美债利率升破4.5%，风险 资产再度承压。如何看待美债的异常波动，减税法案或将如何影响赤字与利率？ 热点思考： 美债"风暴"将至？ （一）美债市场为何再次异动？内因是通胀和财政赤字问题，叠加了日债的"外溢效应" 美债利率异常波动的核心驱动事件是美国减税法案及日债需求走弱。 在二者的影响下，美债利率 ...

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation[2] - Since April 30, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 37 basis points (bps), with the term premium contributing 28 bps to this rise[2] - The term premium reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors[2] Group 2: Tax Legislation Impact - The "Beautiful Act" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the deficit rate to approximately 8% by 2026, although its marginal economic contribution is limited[3] - The Act extends existing tax cuts, with about 80% of its provisions aimed at prolonging the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) measures, effective from January 1, 2026[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate due to the Act is estimated at 1.8 percentage points, with a total deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over the next decade[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has witnessed a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the Nasdaq down 2.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 8 bps to 4.51%[5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.12, while gold prices surged by 5.0% to $3,351.0 per ounce amid market volatility[5] - The correlation between the U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit leading to an approximate 78 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield[3]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普宣布"对等关税"后，美国股、债、汇市场在4月中下旬一度呈现非常罕见的"三杀"局面，标普500最高回撤10%，10年美债利率快速抬升50bp逼 近4.5%，美元指数也一度回落至98。究其原因，除了政策不确定性带来的短期波动和恐慌外（《 大超预期的"对等关税" 》、《 "对等关税"的冲击会 有多大？ 》），市场更为担心的是，"对等关税"除了破坏美国"例外论"和相对优势的同时（大财政、科技优势与资金再平衡，是美国"例外论"的三个 核心支柱，《 美国"例外论"与"东升西落"的内核 》），是否也动摇了全球投资者对美元资产作为长期安全资产的信心和信任感。近期市场有所企 稳，美股甚至已经完全修复此前跌幅，但上述的担忧情绪依然挥之不去。历史上是否出现过类似的情形？发生的背景是什么，最终是如何收场的？本 文中，我们将讨论历史上"股债汇三杀"出现时的共性，以及对当下的启示。 图表：回顾1970年以来10次典型的"股债汇三杀"阶段，我们将触发因素分为滞胀或类滞胀担忧、货币紧缩 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations after a strong opening, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.35 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market [1] - The defense, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors performed well, while real estate, electronics, and retail sectors lagged [1] Macroeconomic Outlook - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are seen as constructive, with significant progress reported [2] - China's exports in April increased by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly above the expected 1.9% [2] - The impact of tariffs on domestic CPI is limited, with April's consumer prices down 0.1% year-on-year [3] - Industrial producer prices fell by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating pressure on corporate profits [3] Market Sentiment and Future Trends - The market is expected to remain volatile until substantial breakthroughs in tariffs, domestic policies, or A-share liquidity occur [5] - A rebound window may open if any of these factors show significant improvement [5] - The current environment is characterized by a recovery in risk appetite alongside weak fundamentals, favoring TMT sectors [5] Investment Strategy - A "value dividend + TMT theme" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality, high-dividend assets for stability [6] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain momentum, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and robotics [6]

❑ 五一假期期间全球股票市场行情突出 5 月 1 日至 2 日内地金融市场休市，全球其他金融市场正常进行交易，整体来看： 科技股主线行情表现突出，恒生科技与纳斯达克分别领涨港股及美股市场，带动 欧洲及其他亚洲股票市场整体收涨。债券市场行情分化，2 年美债、10 年美债收 益率分别上行 23BP 及 16BP，日债收益率下行，德债收益率基本持平。美元指数 有所反弹，兑日元、欧元、英镑等主要货币均有所升值，但美元兑离岸人民币出 现一定幅度贬值迹象。商品市场黄金、白银价格再度出现较大幅度下跌。 ❑ 五一假期要闻汇总 美国 4 月 PCE 同比增长 2.3%，为 2024 年 10 月以来新低，小幅超过预期值 2.2%， 环比零增长持平预期。更为市场关注的核心通胀层面，4 月核心 PCE 同比增长 2.6% 持平预期，环比零增长低于预期，指向核心通胀边际进一步降温，关税冲击对美 国通胀的影响暂未显现。4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13 万人，4 月失业率 录得 4.2%，与前值及预测值持平，平均时薪同比及环比增速均较前值出现放缓迹 象，显示美国劳动力市场依旧保持较强韧性。抢出口效应带动下，美国 2025 ...