Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have not led to a significant decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which is contrary to historical trends where such cuts typically result in lower yields [1][3][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - Over the past 50 years, there have been 12 interest rate cut cycles, which can be categorized into two distinct types: "preventive rate cuts" and "recessionary rate cuts" [3][6]. - Preventive rate cuts, such as those in 1995 and 2019, occur before economic downturns and typically result in smaller, short-lived declines in 10-year Treasury yields, averaging a drop of 167 basis points [6][7]. - Recessionary rate cuts, like those during the 2007 financial crisis, are more aggressive and prolonged, leading to larger declines in yields, but the rebound in rates occurs much later [7][9]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current situation is influenced by three main factors that are hindering the expected decline in long-term yields: limited rate cut capacity, rising term premiums, and reduced foreign investment demand [12][21]. - The long-term neutral interest rate in the U.S. has increased to 3%-3.5%, limiting the number of potential rate cuts to about 3-4 times, while the market anticipates 4-5 cuts [13][15]. - The term premium, which compensates for the risks of holding long-term bonds, has risen from negative to 0.9%, partly due to a significant increase in Treasury issuance [17][19]. - Foreign investors, particularly from Japan and Europe, are less inclined to purchase U.S. Treasuries due to competitive yields in their own markets, which diminishes demand for U.S. debt [19][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields suggests a likelihood of narrow fluctuations, with limited potential for significant declines or sharp increases [21][22]. - Key indicators to watch include the downward potential of yields, which may be constrained by the neutral rate and weak foreign demand, and the upward risks associated with increased political intervention and inflation pressures [23][24]. - Investors should focus on two critical timeframes: the outcomes of the upcoming rate cuts and the early 2024 Treasury issuance plans, as these will directly influence the term premium [27][28].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25%, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year [1] - The Fed's statement indicated a shift in focus from inflation to employment, noting a slowdown in job growth and an increase in unemployment, while also acknowledging that inflation remains high [2] - The Fed raised its growth and inflation forecasts, predicting growth rates of 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and adjusting the inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.6% [3] Group 2 - Market reactions included a temporary sell-off followed by a V-shaped recovery, with the S&P 500 initially dropping 0.5% before recovering most of its losses [4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be further compromised, as the White House seeks to exert more control over Fed appointments, potentially leading to higher inflation risks and a decline in the dollar's credibility [5][6]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 9 月 18 日，美联储降息 25bp，至 4.0-4.25%。资产表现方面，获利盘一度止盈离场，但多数资产出现 V 型 走势，除贵金属外基本收复此前跌幅。点阵图显示年内继续降息 50bp，基本符合预期。数据预测对明年的通胀 担忧略有升温，同时对增长较 6 月更为乐观。 第一，美联储降息幅度及年内降息节奏基本符合预期。对比会议 FOMC 声明与 7 月的差别，主要是对劳动 力市场措辞调整为"就业增长已经放缓，失业率略有上升，不过仍维持在较低水平"，同时在双重使命方面，提 到"就业下行风险已经增加"。通胀方面，在"通胀某种程度上依然高企"的基础上加入"通胀上升"。此外，删 除了净出口波动对数据产生影响的表述。美联储此次降息 25bp 后，点阵图显示年内的 10 月、12 月两次会议合 计降 50bp（其中一人支持再降息 125bp，可能是新晋理事米兰），与市场预期较为接近。 鲍威尔在记者会上表示将政策重点从通胀转向就业。关于关税传导的表述明显缓和，表示"关税向通胀的 传导已经放慢且变小，对核心 PCE 贡献 0.3-0.4 个百分点"。而对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示，劳动力需求已经 减 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.9.11 美国公布新增非农就业远低于预期，降息预期提升，沪深300领涨全球 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 7月全球资产价格回顾：美国就业数据不及预期提示了美国经济的衰退风险持续上升，降息预期推动下，全球风险偏好提升明显，8月全球权益类和商品类资产表现较好，而中国的创业板 以及沪深300领涨全球股市。1）权益方面，8月在中国股市走势本身的强动量下，各路资金纷纷被吸引入市，推动股市不断上涨，8月来说，创业板上涨24.4%，沪深300上涨10.9%，相 比之下，标普500仅上涨3.6%，而发达国家股市上涨3.5%；2）固收层面，美国就业数据的恶化推动降息预期提升，7月31日到8月29日，10年美债收益率下行14BPs，美元指数从 100.03下行到97.85；3）商品层面，降息预期下，贵金属涨幅上涨明显，COMEX黄金上涨3.4%，铜上涨2.07%；原油 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite the limited marginal economic contribution [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential modifications could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with an estimated deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over ten years, which cannot be offset by the anticipated $2.5 trillion in new tariffs [3][40] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation[2] - Since April 30, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 37 basis points (bps), with the term premium contributing 28 bps to this rise[2] - The term premium reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors[2] Group 2: Tax Legislation Impact - The "Beautiful Act" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the deficit rate to approximately 8% by 2026, although its marginal economic contribution is limited[3] - The Act extends existing tax cuts, with about 80% of its provisions aimed at prolonging the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) measures, effective from January 1, 2026[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate due to the Act is estimated at 1.8 percentage points, with a total deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over the next decade[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has witnessed a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the Nasdaq down 2.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 8 bps to 4.51%[5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.12, while gold prices surged by 5.0% to $3,351.0 per ounce amid market volatility[5] - The correlation between the U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit leading to an approximate 78 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield[3]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普宣布"对等关税"后，美国股、债、汇市场在4月中下旬一度呈现非常罕见的"三杀"局面，标普500最高回撤10%，10年美债利率快速抬升50bp逼 近4.5%，美元指数也一度回落至98。究其原因，除了政策不确定性带来的短期波动和恐慌外（《 大超预期的"对等关税" 》、《 "对等关税"的冲击会 有多大？ 》），市场更为担心的是，"对等关税"除了破坏美国"例外论"和相对优势的同时（大财政、科技优势与资金再平衡，是美国"例外论"的三个 核心支柱，《 美国"例外论"与"东升西落"的内核 》），是否也动摇了全球投资者对美元资产作为长期安全资产的信心和信任感。近期市场有所企 稳，美股甚至已经完全修复此前跌幅，但上述的担忧情绪依然挥之不去。历史上是否出现过类似的情形？发生的背景是什么，最终是如何收场的？本 文中，我们将讨论历史上"股债汇三杀"出现时的共性，以及对当下的启示。 图表：回顾1970年以来10次典型的"股债汇三杀"阶段，我们将触发因素分为滞胀或类滞胀担忧、货币紧缩 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations after a strong opening, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.35 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market [1] - The defense, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors performed well, while real estate, electronics, and retail sectors lagged [1] Macroeconomic Outlook - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are seen as constructive, with significant progress reported [2] - China's exports in April increased by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly above the expected 1.9% [2] - The impact of tariffs on domestic CPI is limited, with April's consumer prices down 0.1% year-on-year [3] - Industrial producer prices fell by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating pressure on corporate profits [3] Market Sentiment and Future Trends - The market is expected to remain volatile until substantial breakthroughs in tariffs, domestic policies, or A-share liquidity occur [5] - A rebound window may open if any of these factors show significant improvement [5] - The current environment is characterized by a recovery in risk appetite alongside weak fundamentals, favoring TMT sectors [5] Investment Strategy - A "value dividend + TMT theme" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality, high-dividend assets for stability [6] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain momentum, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and robotics [6]

❑ 五一假期期间全球股票市场行情突出 5 月 1 日至 2 日内地金融市场休市，全球其他金融市场正常进行交易，整体来看： 科技股主线行情表现突出，恒生科技与纳斯达克分别领涨港股及美股市场，带动 欧洲及其他亚洲股票市场整体收涨。债券市场行情分化，2 年美债、10 年美债收 益率分别上行 23BP 及 16BP，日债收益率下行，德债收益率基本持平。美元指数 有所反弹，兑日元、欧元、英镑等主要货币均有所升值，但美元兑离岸人民币出 现一定幅度贬值迹象。商品市场黄金、白银价格再度出现较大幅度下跌。 ❑ 五一假期要闻汇总 美国 4 月 PCE 同比增长 2.3%，为 2024 年 10 月以来新低，小幅超过预期值 2.2%， 环比零增长持平预期。更为市场关注的核心通胀层面，4 月核心 PCE 同比增长 2.6% 持平预期，环比零增长低于预期，指向核心通胀边际进一步降温，关税冲击对美 国通胀的影响暂未显现。4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13 万人，4 月失业率 录得 4.2%，与前值及预测值持平，平均时薪同比及环比增速均较前值出现放缓迹 象，显示美国劳动力市场依旧保持较强韧性。抢出口效应带动下，美国 2025 ...