证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #海外经济 《大美丽法案》：内容、影响与策略启示 2025 年 07 月 14 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《关税豁免期延长或带动二次"抢转 口"》 2025-07-13 《特朗普"对等关税 2.0"威胁延期至 8 月 1 日》 2025-07-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：《大美丽法案》快速落地，由于法案存在较显著的分配效应， 且剔除延长及扩展减税法案以外的条款给财政带来的是收紧效果，因此 其对美国增长的拉动较为有限。法案"增赤在前、减赤在后"的特点， 也隐含 2028 年前后"财政悬崖"的风险。短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a rebound in the US dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the long term, despite potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index outperformed European stock markets in June, reversing a trend of underperformance over the previous five months [1] - The yield premium on long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased from high levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - The current market order is perceived as more stable compared to the period following the large-scale tariff policies introduced in April [1] - Investors seem to believe that the impacts of US policies may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar over the next 12 months, although there is room for further short-term corrections [1]