特朗普新关税政策出台，或推高美债 期限溢价并令财政可持续性承压 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 美国联邦最高法院裁定特朗普政府部分关税政策超出其法定权限，不仅导致"对等关税" 及"芬太尼关税"等核心举措即时失效，还对特朗普政府的贸易政策行政权造成较大制约 特朗普政府迅速援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条款对全球进口商品实施临时关税，虽然援 引条款的适用条件并未实质性满足，但司法程序的"时间窗口"为特朗普政府提供战略缓 冲机遇 未来特朗普政府关税政策可能会从普遍性征税转为更聚焦于供应链核心节点，旨在通过切 断关键产业链的外部依赖，重构以美国为核心的封闭型工业体系 特朗普政府关税政策的重新调整，不仅重塑了美国的关税政策框架，还对供应链迁移、贸 易规则调整等方面产生连锁反应，新关税政策的长期化和结构化将重塑资产定价逻辑，或 推高美债期限溢价并令财政可持续性承压 当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国联邦最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的关税政策超出其法定权限。裁决结果公布后，特朗普 政府迅速宣布自 2 月 24 日起 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" has been implemented rapidly, but its impact on U.S. growth is limited due to significant distribution effects and a tightening fiscal effect from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts. The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][6][29] - The legislative process was expedited due to Trump's strong influence within the Republican Party and effective utilization of legislative rules, allowing the act to be signed into law just 45 days after its introduction [7][10] - The act primarily extends existing tax cuts, leading to an estimated additional $3.85 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, while incremental policies result in a marginal tightening effect, with a projected surplus of $0.49 trillion [12][18][23] Group 2 - The budget and economic effects of the act raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, with the potential for a "fiscal cliff" risk emerging around 2028 due to the act's structure of increasing deficits initially [29][32] - The economic impact of the act is assessed as limited, with various institutions estimating its cumulative effect on U.S. GDP over ten years to be around 0.1% to 0.3%, indicating a long-term neutral effect with significant distributional impacts [37][41][43] - Tariff revenues are expected to partially offset the act's budgetary and economic effects, with projections suggesting that tariff income could reduce the fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, potentially covering 68% of the act's total cost [45][50][53] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. Treasury supply shocks post-implementation of the act are analyzed across three time dimensions, indicating that the immediate impact on market liquidity and long-term yield premiums is manageable [54][56] - The act raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue additional bonds, which may lead to short-term liquidity tightening but is expected to be controlled in the third quarter of the year [56][58] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. debt sustainability remains a challenge, with the act's passage indicating a strong path dependency on debt expansion, suggesting that long-term Treasury yields may face upward pressure [60]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the U.S. term premium is expected to decline, leading to a slight decrease in sovereign bond yields across most developed markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - The anticipated decline in the U.S. term premium is linked to easing trade tensions, which may reduce the compensation investors require for holding long-term bonds [1] - The report indicates that if the predicted decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium occurs, it would not be surprising to see a moderate decrease in the term premiums of other high-rated 10-year government bonds [1]

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite the limited marginal economic contribution [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential modifications could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with an estimated deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over ten years, which cannot be offset by the anticipated $2.5 trillion in new tariffs [3][40] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]