过去几天，美股的大涨、以及全球股市的狂欢，似乎都在为庆祝一件事情，那就是因为不及预期的CPI数据，或者说美联储内部对降息的分歧，市场存在另 外一种预期，那就是9月份不仅仅降息25个基点，可能出现大幅度降息。 香港恒生指数 最新:25519.320 25778 25737 25696 25655 25614 25573 25532 25491 25450 3.32 2.21 1.11 亿 09:30 10:30 10:00 当然这个事情也有背后的呼吁者，美国财长贝森特在接受采访的时候表示，觉得未来会进行一系列降息，9月份先降息50个基点，这让市场有些震惊，还有 就是贝森特觉得不管参考哪种模型，利率未来可能都应该降低到150至175个基点。 我感觉昨天A股调整，多少与此有些关联度，包括港股在下午的回落，当然主要原因还是在市场自身，因为核心蓝筹的大幅度拉升，使得市场资金的分歧开 始加大，特别是最终造成了4000多只个股下跌，一般而言当大部分个股下跌的时候，仅仅有少部分个股上涨的路也不会太长，这对A股来说如此情形已经演 绎了很多次。 所以接下来的走势，我大概率觉得市场震荡几天，拉升指数的蓝筹股短期内该休息了，因为任务 ...

Group 1 - Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods stems from a belief that the US is being taken advantage of, with a trade deficit exceeding $2.5 billion annually [2][3] - The EU's refusal to accept a "10% baseline agreement" has stalled negotiations, prompting Trump to use tariffs as leverage [3][4] - The likelihood of the EU compromising on tariffs is high due to its reliance on US military support, suggesting that the final tariff will likely exceed 10% but not reach the proposed 50% [5] Group 2 - The proposed 25% tariff on Apple products led to a significant drop in Apple's stock price, with a single-day decline of over 3% [6] - If Apple were to relocate all iPhone production to the US, it could face a cost increase of over 150%, potentially reducing its profit margin to below 20% [6] - The market perceives Trump's tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than a genuine intent to harm Apple, with Apple likely to seek alternative production locations to mitigate risks [8] Group 3 - The US debt situation is characterized by a looming peak in debt repayments, with nearly $9 trillion due in 2025, including $2.2 trillion in June alone [10] - The current concern is not about short-term repayment but rather the long-term ability to refinance debt, with the national debt exceeding $36 trillion and interest payments approaching $1 trillion [12] - The demand for US Treasury bonds is decreasing due to reduced purchases from major holders like Japan and China, which could lead to higher interest rates [16][17][19] Group 4 - The potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is increasing as the bond market faces pressures similar to those seen in the UK in 2022 [21] - The US's need for foreign investment in its debt could lead to more favorable trade negotiations, as countries with significant dollar reserves may leverage their position [22] - Investors are advised to adopt a global perspective for asset allocation, as the traditional reliance on US dollar assets is becoming less viable [23][24]