12月的金融市场刚稳了没几天，就被特朗普的一句话搅翻了天。他在12月2日的内阁会议上明确表示，2026年初会公布下任美联储主席人选，消息一出美元 指数立刻跳水，黄金价格反倒踩着上涨曲线一路走高。这不是单纯的人事变动消息，更像一颗投向全球金融池的石子，激起的涟漪里，藏着美元信用、美债 安全和大国资产布局的大文章。 美联储的"独立性"从来都是美元的压舱石，现在这块石头要被撬动了。过去美联储制定政策，核心是盯着2%的通胀目标和充分就业，不用看白宫脸色。但 哈塞特的表态很清楚，他要是上任，货币政策得跟着特朗普的产业政策、减税政策走。市场立刻就算出了后果：美联储可能不管通胀目标，跟着政府的意思 滥发货币，用美元贬值来稀释美债压力，顺便让美国商品在国际上更便宜。这种操作说白了就是悄悄赖账，债权国肯定不会坐视不理。 "大空头"迈克尔·伯里早就看穿了这层风险。这位曾经精准预言次贷危机的投资人，最近打破多年沉默发声，他觉得美国可能根本不需要美联储了，货币政 策早晚要被财政部接手，这两个部门现在已经快分不清界限。伯里直言，美联储干了上百年，没少捅娄子，要是特朗普真把美联储攥在手里，这家全球央行 的公信力就彻底完了，到时候没人会再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House indicated that the decision to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair is not imminent, which has led to a significant decline in the dollar's value [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - The White House stated that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair will not be made immediately, despite President Trump's potential plans to announce a new nominee this summer [2] - Trump has reportedly identified "three to four" candidates to replace Powell, expressing frustration over Powell's performance [2] - Potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, with Waller recently supporting a rate cut in contrast to Powell's cautious stance [2] Group 2: Dollar Value and Economic Implications - The dollar fell by 0.7% against a basket of currencies, reaching its lowest level since early 2022, influenced by speculation regarding the Fed Chair nomination [2][3] - The dollar has declined over 10% this year amid concerns about trade wars, debt sustainability, and threats to the Fed's independence [4] - Analysts suggest that if a nominee more aligned with Trump's desire for rate cuts is appointed, it could further weaken the dollar [3][4] Group 3: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Concerns are raised about the potential political influence on the Federal Reserve, which could undermine its independence and lead to economic instability [5] - Historical precedents indicate that political pressure on the Fed can result in negative economic outcomes, as seen during Nixon's presidency [5] - A recent OMFIF survey revealed that 70% of central bank reserve managers are reducing their dollar holdings due to the current political environment in the U.S. [5]