智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通策略师表示，如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普成功任命一位关键成员进入美联 储，那么美国国债收益率曲线可能会从四年来最宽的水平进一步变陡。周四，美国5年期和30年期国债收益 率之差扩大，此前特朗普宣布，提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事一职，以填补美 联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒突然辞职留下的空缺。该任命需经参议院批准。此外有报道称，美联储理事克 里斯托弗·沃勒有望接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 由于上周就业数据不佳，货币市场加大了对美联储降息的押注力度。目前，掉期交易预计美联储9月份降息 25个基点的可能性为95%，并预计年底前至少还会再次降息一次。交易员们也在关注下周公布的美国通胀数 据。经济学家预计7月份通胀率将从6月份的0.3%降至0.2%。 以杰伊·巴里为首的摩根大通分析师团队周四晚些时候发布报告称："米兰一直认为，特朗普政府的贸易、移 民和放松管制政策都会抑制通胀。从这个角度来看，这支持了美联储采取更为鸽派的政策，也解释了今天 所观察到的收益率曲线陡化现象。" 周五，美国30年期国债收益率稳定在4.82%。 美债收益率曲线恐进一步趋陡 利差目前维持在略高于1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential removal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump could significantly impact the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 30-year yield, by over 50 basis points, while the 10-year yield may also begin to rise [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Recent discussions around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the possibility of leadership changes have heightened market uncertainty, which may result in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds trading at a discount [2][3]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly, from a projected 75 basis points to less than 50 basis points, due to resilient macroeconomic data and inflationary pressures from tariff policies [2][11]. - The yield spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its steepest level since 2021, indicating that the market is pricing in the risk of Powell's potential dismissal [3][8]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Allegations against Powell, including claims of perjury related to the Federal Reserve's renovation costs, have been made by Republican lawmakers, which could further complicate the political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - The Trump administration's push for a more accommodative monetary policy could lead to increased inflation expectations and market risk premiums, thereby affecting long-term Treasury yields [8][11]. - The ongoing concerns regarding the U.S. government's borrowing needs and budget deficits are reflected in the elevated term premium for 10-year Treasury bonds, which is at its highest level since 2014 [11].