委内瑞拉局势剧变以来，该国金融市场跟随剧烈波动！今天，委内瑞拉股指IBC指数大幅上涨，涨幅高 达74%，报3896.77。自美军空袭委内瑞拉，并抓捕该国总统马杜罗后，委内瑞拉股市竟然出现暴涨， 从1600点左右涨到约3900点，几天时间狂拉2300点。此外，委内瑞拉政府债券5日飙升近30%，国有石 油公司——委内瑞拉国家石油的企业债也大幅拉升。分析师估计，如果将未付利息计算在内，该国政府 债和国家石油公司债券可能占到其总外债的1000亿美元，占比过半。 ...

【12月23日金融市场短线波动：美元、美债升，黄金降，美股期货平稳】12月23日，美元指数短线拉升 约10点，现报97.99。 美股期货短线波动不大，纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.15%左右的跌幅。 美国10 年期国债收益率短线拉升，现报4.149%。 现货黄金短线走低约4美元，现报4485.51美元/盎司。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 在联合国举办的新闻发布会上，联合国秘书长发言人迪雅里克（Stéphane Dujarric）在回答21世纪经济 报道记者提问时表示："我们目前重点推动的是加强国际合作，更多利用现有的国际贸易协定。主要经 济体在维护全球经济健康方面必须承担领导责任。" （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 联合国贸易和发展会议近日发布《2025 年贸易与发展报告》，指出金融市场的波动正在成为决定全球 贸易走向和经济前景的关键力量，使世界经济处于愈发脆弱的状态。报告预计，2025 年全球经济增速 将放缓至 2.6%，较 2024 年的 2.9% 小幅回落。 ...

报告特别强调，全球超过九成的贸易依赖银行融资，美元流动性在国际支付和贸易结算中仍占据绝对中 心地位。因此，主要金融中心的利率变化或投资者情绪转变，都可能迅速传导至全球贸易体系。对于融 资渠道有限的发展中国家而言，冲击更为明显。 金融化趋势也正在改变大宗商品市场的生态。一些大型粮食贸易企业超过七成收入来自金融业务，而非 实物贸易，这使得全球粮食体系更容易受到金融市场波动影响，脆弱性进一步增加。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 联合国贸易和发展会议近日发布《2025 年贸易与发展报告》，指出金融市场的波动正在成为决定全球 贸易走向和经济前景的关键力量，使世界经济处于愈发脆弱的状态。报告预计，2025 年全球经济增速 将放缓至 2.6%，较 2024 年的 2.9% 小幅回落。 贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，当前的金融环境已经深刻改变了全球贸易的运行逻辑。她强调，贸易体 系并不是单纯的物流链条，而是一套由信贷、支付体系、货币流动和资本市场共同支撑的复杂网络。随 着全球金融条件收紧，贸易增长越来越受到金融变量的影响。 报告显示，2025 年初全球贸易增长约 4%，部分源自企业提前进口以应对关税调整，也得益于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the fundamental raw material segment, copper concentrate processing fees remain in the negative range, and the continuous tight supply of raw materials still supports copper prices. On the supply side, after the previous concentrated maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity to some extent, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season for consumption is gradually emerging, and the relatively high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption. In this context, downstream purchasing sentiment may be more cautious. In terms of inventory, the overall social inventory remains at a medium - low level, but there may be some inventory accumulation due to the off - season. In terms of consumption, the year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis and the green bars are contracting. The overall view is to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,253 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the open interest of the main contract is 223,984 lots, down 1,622 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34,929 lots, down 7,914 lots; the LME copper inventory is 161,800 tons, up 2,375 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 28,969 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 88,980 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 89,085 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 39 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the CU main contract is - 230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 69.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.08 US dollars; the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 US dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,020 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 79,720 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons; the weekly social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 60,840 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons; the cumulative monthly investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan; the cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.96%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.20%, down 0.09%; the at - the - money implied volatility is 17.45%, down 0.0114; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie said in a signed article that the "15th Five - Year Plan" will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and developing emerging and future industries, and accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy; US President Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, and it is reported that he has "pre - selected" White House National Economic Council Director Hassett; the OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, with the US economy growing 2% and 1.7% and the eurozone economy growing 1.3% and 1.2%; the UNCTAD predicts that the global economic growth will slow to 2.6% in 2025, lower than 2.9% in 2024, and emphasizes the impact of financial market volatility on global trade [2].

Core Insights - The price of gold has experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a high of $4,360 per troy ounce on October 20, before dropping to $3,970 and then rebounding to around $4,260 recently, indicating ongoing volatility in the market [2][3][7] - Analysts suggest that despite the end of the federal government shutdown, the demand for gold remains strong due to economic uncertainty and potential political risks, with UBS projecting a possible price increase to $4,700 if risks escalate [3][4][7] Investment Demand - There has been a notable increase in investment demand for gold, particularly from North American exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have significantly boosted trading volumes [3][8] - U.S. gold trading volume reached a record high of $208 billion per day in October, with a 59% increase in September and a further 51% rise in October, driven primarily by ETF demand [8] Market Environment - The current market environment remains uncertain, with potential for further government shutdowns and legal challenges to tariff policies, which could sustain support for gold prices [9][10] - UBS anticipates that global gold demand could reach its highest level since 2011 due to factors such as potential interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and high levels of global government debt [11] Retail Demand - Retail demand for gold has shown improvement, particularly for gold bars in the U.S., with reports of strong sales from retailers like Costco, driven by consumer trust and stable pricing in a rising market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Slovak National Bank, Peter Kazimir, indicates that inflation risks in the Eurozone are currently moderate, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) should avoid frequent adjustments to monetary policy to prevent increased volatility in financial markets [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Kazimir notes that while the market expects the Eurozone inflation rate to fall below 2% next year due to base effects from energy prices, there are still risks associated with core inflation and wage growth exceeding expectations [1] - Investors currently see a very low probability of an ECB rate cut in December, but maintain a 40% probability for a rate cut before mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Guidance - Kazimir emphasizes that a data-driven approach implies that future policy adjustments could go in either direction, highlighting the need for careful consideration in monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Insights - UBS reported a significant increase in third-quarter net profit, which surged 74% to $2.5 billion, exceeding market expectations [1] - The revenue growth was attributed to financial market volatility driven by global tariff issues [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for UBS in the third quarter reached $2.5 billion, marking a 74% increase compared to previous periods [1] - The performance was notably strong, as it handily beat analysts' expectations [1] Market Conditions - The revenue increase was linked to the volatility in financial markets, which was influenced by ongoing global tariff turmoil [1]

Group 1: Tesla and Market Reactions - Tesla's stock price dropped significantly, losing over 500 billion RMB, despite reporting higher-than-expected third-quarter delivery numbers [1] - Concerns about the expiration of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies and increased competition are contributing to the stock decline [1] - In contrast, Chinese stocks, particularly those listed in the U.S., such as Alibaba and NIO, saw gains, indicating optimism about the Chinese economy [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown due to a lack of bipartisan agreement, which could lead to many government departments closing [3] - The shutdown has also affected financial regulatory bodies, halting IPO processes, yet the U.S. stock market experienced gains, possibly due to a perceived increase in the value of existing stocks [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Developments - Speculation is high regarding a potential change in the Federal Reserve chair, with the current Treasury Secretary interviewing candidates [5] - The selection of the new chair is critical as it will have a direct impact on the U.S. and global economy [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Reactions - There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, leading to declines in safe-haven assets like gold and silver [4] - The financial market is characterized by volatility, with rapid changes in stock values reflecting broader economic sentiments [6]

#报告 瑞银：美国政府关门迫在眉睫。关注关门前后媒体报道以及金融市场波动情况。None (@None):None ...