"优化"是此次会议强调的关键之一，核心在于实施精准的结构性调控。财政政策领域，优化举措全面铺开。不仅在收入端提出优化税收优惠，支出端严肃财 政纪律，还对"两新"和"两重"政策的落地进行规范调整，确保投资于物和投资于人紧密结合。同时，调整专项债用途管理，通过债务重组等手段主动缓解地 方风险。中央适度增加预算内投资规模，推动投资止跌回稳。房地产政策则更加注重中长期"优供给"，致力于构建新发展模式，系统性稳定市场预期，为内 需稳定奠定基础。 近日，中央经济工作会议落下帷幕，此次会议为"十五五"开局年定下关键基调，将经济发展重心从"量"的扩张坚定转向"质"的提升，明确提出要"在质的有 效提升上取得更大突破"，一系列围绕"优化、深化、增效"的政策思路，勾勒出更具韧性、更可持续的高质量发展新路径。国联民生首席经济学家兼宏观首 席分析师陶川对此进行了深入解读。 政策导向：从"增长"到"质效"，精准务实转型 与2024年会议强调"能早则早、抓紧抓实"的"增长"导向不同，今年会议在目标设定上展现出"积极"与"务实"并重的智慧。在手段运用上，更注重结构性调控 和制度性改革，凸显出政策导向的精准务实。2026年经济工作将围绕"内需 ...

报告特别强调，全球超过九成的贸易依赖银行融资，美元流动性在国际支付和贸易结算中仍占据绝对中 心地位。因此，主要金融中心的利率变化或投资者情绪转变，都可能迅速传导至全球贸易体系。对于融 资渠道有限的发展中国家而言，冲击更为明显。 金融化趋势也正在改变大宗商品市场的生态。一些大型粮食贸易企业超过七成收入来自金融业务，而非 实物贸易，这使得全球粮食体系更容易受到金融市场波动影响，脆弱性进一步增加。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 联合国贸易和发展会议近日发布《2025 年贸易与发展报告》，指出金融市场的波动正在成为决定全球 贸易走向和经济前景的关键力量，使世界经济处于愈发脆弱的状态。报告预计，2025 年全球经济增速 将放缓至 2.6%，较 2024 年的 2.9% 小幅回落。 贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，当前的金融环境已经深刻改变了全球贸易的运行逻辑。她强调，贸易体 系并不是单纯的物流链条，而是一套由信贷、支付体系、货币流动和资本市场共同支撑的复杂网络。随 着全球金融条件收紧，贸易增长越来越受到金融变量的影响。 报告显示，2025 年初全球贸易增长约 4%，部分源自企业提前进口以应对关税调整，也得益于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy, but it remains in a value trap due to underlying economic challenges and structural issues in the capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - The current Chinese economy is in a downward cycle, with significant fiscal pressure on local governments and a severe employment situation, making it difficult for the fundamental economy to provide effective support [1]. - The total social financing in China is heavily reliant on bank loans, which amount to approximately 36 trillion yuan, indicating a low proportion of direct financing from the capital market [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Institutional Reforms - The coordination efficiency between the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has significantly improved, with the Central Financial Committee playing a key role in injecting ample liquidity into the market [2]. - Despite a rebound of about 800 points from the market's low, systemic optimization of institutional frameworks is necessary to avoid resistance to further market growth [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Behavior and Corporate Governance - Current large shareholders are focusing on cashing out rather than improving company operations, which undermines the original intent of the capital market to support the real economy [3]. - There are over 5,400 listed companies in A-shares with a total share capital of approximately 77 trillion shares, with more than 90% being tradable, leading to significant pressure for large shareholders to reduce their holdings [2]. Group 4: Proposed Institutional Innovations - Three key institutional innovations are proposed to address structural issues: 1. Setting a cap on the shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder in newly listed companies at 30% to control reduction pressure [4]. 2. Implementing a "minimum price for liquidity" mechanism that ties the reduction price to company performance and market index levels [4]. 3. Linking reduction qualifications to dividend distribution, requiring cumulative dividends to exceed total financing amounts before allowing reductions [4]. - The regulatory authorities are urged to adopt differentiated policies for existing and newly listed companies to prevent a potential market crash due to uncontrolled large shareholder reductions [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the sluggish recovery of consumer spending in China, indicating that while there is potential for growth, consumer confidence and willingness to spend remain low due to various underlying issues [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Data Analysis - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% but a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [3]. - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 34,931 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.3% [3]. - From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284,238 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.8% [4]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Willingness - The consumer confidence index was reported at 88.03 in June 2025, indicating a weak state compared to the historical average of 124.6 in 2019 [5]. - The increase in household savings, with a balance of over 160 trillion yuan, suggests that while consumers have the capacity to spend, they prefer saving due to uncertainties about the future [4][5]. - Factors such as inadequate social security, high living costs, and barriers to consumption (e.g., housing and vehicle purchase restrictions) contribute to the lack of consumer willingness [5][6]. Group 3: Unlocking Consumption Potential - China has a significant consumption potential, with 75% of it yet to be realized, necessitating reforms to enhance the ability, willingness, and ease of consumption [6][7]. - To improve the "ability to consume," reforms in income distribution and labor compensation are essential, alongside addressing wage arrears for migrant workers [7][8]. - Enhancing consumer confidence requires stable social security measures and government policies to reduce precautionary savings and encourage spending [8]. Group 4: Addressing Consumption Barriers - The article emphasizes the need to eliminate restrictive policies on purchasing homes and vehicles to unlock potential consumer demand [8]. - Improving product quality and service standards is crucial for meeting the unmet needs of middle and high-income consumers [8]. - Strengthening consumer rights protection and enhancing the legal framework to address issues like price transparency and counterfeit goods are necessary for fostering a secure consumption environment [8].