期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 沪铜增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜持续增仓上行，尾盘逼近 9.3 万关口，日内增仓约 3 万 张。宏观层面，美元指数维持弱势，有色普涨。产业层面，伦铜和 沪铜升水持续走强，短期非美地区现货紧张预期升温。技术层面， 铜价增仓突破 9 万关口，短期上行动能较强。 沪铝 今日铝价维持昨夜强势格局，持仓量持续上升。宏观层面，美元 弱势，有色普涨。产业层面，国内外电解铝库存均低位持稳运行，随 着铝价走高，下游畏高，按需采购，现货贴 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market maintained strong performance with a slight increase in open interest. Favorable domestic and overseas macro - factors, such as rising overseas interest - rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar index, along with a decline in Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory, may keep copper prices strong [5]. - The Shanghai aluminum market oscillated upward with a slight decrease in open interest. Although the domestic market atmosphere was favorable, the downstream off - season led to inventory accumulation, and it is expected that the futures price will show a moderately strong oscillation [6]. - The nickel price oscillated upward with little change in open interest, and the main futures price broke through the 122,000 - yuan mark. Supported by the improved domestic macro - environment and stable nickel ore operations with rising port inventories, the nickel price is expected to follow the macro - trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 11, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,200 tons, a decrease of 210 tons compared to August 4 and 110 tons compared to August 7 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 571,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 4 and 22,000 tons compared to August 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 11, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2509 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton with a price of 124,160 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton with a price of 122,460 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton with a price of 125,160 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton with a price of 124,510 yuan/ton [11]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warrant inventory, etc. [12][14][15] Aluminum - Charts involve aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, alumina inventory, etc. [35][31][27] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [38][44][40]