投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 淡季去库，钢价低位形成支撑 ——周报20251124 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢高炉周产量207.96万吨（环比+3.98%，同比-11.06%），全国热卷 | | | | | 周产量316.01万吨（+环比0.75%，同比+1.33%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费230.79万吨（环比+6.66%，同比+2.41%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 324.42万吨（环比+3.45%，同比+1.73%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存553.34万吨（环比-3.96%，同比+24.32%），热卷总库存 | 区间震荡 | | | | 402.11万吨（环比-2.05%，同比+27.56%）。 | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 宏观超 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on November 12, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a slight pullback [1] - The Tianhong Hong Kong Technology ETF (159128) was officially listed and traded, with a transaction volume exceeding 20 million yuan [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which consists of the top 30 Hong Kong stocks related to technology themes, covering areas such as AI, smart vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Market Performance - Among the constituent stocks, Baijia Shenzhou rose over 6%, while other notable gainers included Xinda Bio, Kangfang Bio, and WuXi Biologics [1] - As of November 11, the top 10 constituent stocks accounted for over 75% of the index, indicating a high concentration [1] Valuation Metrics - The current TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is at the 36th percentile over the past five years, suggesting a historically low valuation level [1] - The ETF also includes off-market linked funds (A: 024885, C: 024886) [1] Economic Outlook - Expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. are rising, with a 67.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December according to CME FedWatch [2] - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong stock market could reach new highs due to the influx of capital and the gathering of quality assets, with a focus on technology stocks [2] Market Sentiment - The foundation of the Hong Kong bull market remains intact, but the evolution is likely to be characterized by "volatile upward movement" rather than rapid increases [2] - The strong fundamental drivers in November highlight the importance of high-growth sectors, with opportunities emerging amid market fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks collectively surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rising 4.89% to HKD 14.15, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.54% to HKD 6.72, Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing 3.2% to HKD 32.92, and Zijin Mining (601899) climbing 2.68% to HKD 35.2 [1] - The recent landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has led Freeport-McMoRan, the operator, to invoke "force majeure" clauses, significantly impacting global copper supply [1] Group 2: Global Copper Supply Forecast - Following the Grasberg incident, Citigroup adjusted its global copper supply forecast, predicting a production of 23.15 million tons in 2025, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, and 23.46 million tons in 2026, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, both lower than previous estimates [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Copper Prices - Copper prices rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts this month, with overseas rate cut expectations being a dominant factor [2] - The labor market data remains a key influence on U.S. rate cut expectations, but delays in data publication due to government shutdowns may lead to fluctuating expectations [2] - As long as recession risks do not materialize, significant declines in copper prices are unlikely [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks collectively surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 4.89% to HKD 14.15, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.54% to HKD 6.72, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 3.2% to HKD 32.92, and Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.68% to HKD 35.2 [1] - The recent landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has led Freeport-McMoRan, the operator, to invoke "force majeure" clauses, significantly impacting global copper supply [1] Group 2: Global Copper Supply Forecast - Citigroup has revised its global copper supply forecast, predicting a production of 23.15 million tons in 2025, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, and 23.46 million tons in 2026, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Copper Prices - Following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting a potential interest rate cut this month, copper prices have rebounded, with overseas rate cut expectations being a dominant factor [2] - The labor market data remains a key influence on U.S. rate cut expectations, but delays in data release due to government shutdowns may lead to fluctuating expectations [2] - As long as recession risks do not materialize, significant declines in copper prices are unlikely [2]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观不确定性干扰 关注库消走势 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位运行。宏观美国总统特朗普的措辞有所转变，缓和 了持续紧张的贸易关系，但不确定性仍强，关注情绪扰动。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 ...

医药股今日普遍重挫，截至发稿，三叶草生物-B(02197)跌14.43%，报2.49港元；荣昌生物(09995)跌 11.54%，报105.4港元；诺诚健华(09969)跌11.48%，报16.65港元；歌礼制药-B(01672)跌9.16%，报10.51 港元；泰格医药（300347）(03347)跌7.08%，报43.86港元。 国盛证券指出，过节期间，辉瑞和特朗普达成协议，部分解除了海外MNC的政策担忧，海外MNC迎来 修复，同时也带动港股医药情绪有所修复，对CXO带来正面影响，在这个影响下，中小市值创新药-B 公司尤其是未进通的表现弹性较大。这段时间CXO确实表现相对强势，有业绩期比较优势，也有降息 预期影响，也有行业趋势拐点向上预期影响，几点共振，中长期值得期待。创新药近期因为缺少催化， 借势消化筹码，也有企稳迹象，看好十一后，尤其是Q4创新药表现。 消息面上，中泰证券（600918）认为，9月板块延续震荡调整，主要由于3月以来医药板块超额明显，短 期内板块催化相对较少，板块缺少持续上行强动力；此外创新药板块年初以来涨幅较大，资金有兑现收 益的需求。该行认为阶段的震荡调整是相对良性的，且基本面来看创 ...

Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the copper price corrects, long positions can be considered for mid - term layout below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, pay attention to demand. Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Indonesian forestry department's takeover of part of the nickel mine [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamental situation remains weak, and it is affected by the Indonesian incident and macro - anti - involution expectations [6]. - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand will be in a tight balance in September and October, and the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan this week and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream is in the stage of consuming finished - product inventory [1]. - **Premium**: The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive arbitrage has room [1]. - **Macro**: Copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and attention should be paid to the possible realization of short - term bullish factors after the FOMC meeting next week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices declined slightly this week. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream开工 improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic supply is affected by smelter maintenance and high - volume imported zinc ore. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has production resistance [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fluctuated slightly this week. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehousing [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak [3]. - **News**: The Indonesian parade subsided, and the Indonesian forestry department took over part of the nickel mine [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices were stable this week. The inventory in Xijiao and Wuxi remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to recover, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6]. - **Cost**: The price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices rose this week. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to be tight, and demand is in the peak season but not prosperous [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Domestic inventory fluctuated, and LME inventory rebounded from a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is short - term tight, and demand has limited elasticity [9]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon changed this week, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance in September and October [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. The futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week, and the basis strengthened slightly [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by compliance disturbances, and the demand is in the peak season but the destocking amplitude is small [12]. - **Price Elasticity**: The price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the alumina industry are in a relatively stable supply - demand stage, with stable production and improved spot market transactions. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of the electrolytic aluminum industry may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand, with overseas interest - rate cut expectations driving the price up. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is also recommended to trade with a light position within a range, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of the cast - aluminum industry may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and recovering demand, with a dull spot market. It is suggested to trade with a light position within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 20,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 65 yuan, down 25 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 16,514 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,712 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars [2]. - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 2,937 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 42 yuan, up 3 yuan. The main contract position increased by 38,407 lots. The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 1,500 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the main cast - aluminum alloy contract was 20,460 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 40 yuan, down 25 yuan. The main contract position increased by 2,154 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The basis of cast - aluminum alloy was 590 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 40 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. - The SHFE aluminum premium/discount in Shanghai Wumaomao was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 15.98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was 28 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 4,900.05 tons, and the export volume increased by 15.06 tons [2]. - China's alumina export volume was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons. The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance decreased by 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.6 million tons to 58.6 million tons. The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 55,884.22 tons to 248,198.71 tons; the export volume increased by 21,416.99 tons to 40,987.71 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 98.11%, up 0.33 percentage points. The aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 53.4 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, unchanged. The national real - estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. - The aluminum alloy output was 153.6 million tons, down 13.3 million tons. The automobile output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum was 6.63%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.18%, down 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 11.12%, up 0.0002 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.15, down 0.033 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, covering cross - border cooperation, sports events, and market access in multiple fields [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing by 2.1% year - on - year, which may influence the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [2]. - Pan Gongsheng pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence and competition among a few sovereign currencies, and new technologies will drive the evolution of cross - border payment systems [2]. - As of the end of August, the national passenger - vehicle inventory decreased by 130,000 vehicles month - on - month, with rational production control by car companies from May to August [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina contract weakened in a volatile manner, with increased positions, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of bauxite was affected by the rainy season in Guinea, but domestic alumina production was stable. The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants was good, and the overall supply - demand was stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main SHFE aluminum contract declined in a volatile manner, with decreased positions, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of alumina was stable, and the profit of smelters was good, resulting in high - level production. The demand from downstream processing plants improved, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased. The option market was bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The main cast - aluminum alloy contract declined in a volatile manner, with increased positions, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, restricting production. The demand from downstream die - casting plants improved, but the spot market was dull. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with a slight upward trend, driven by macroeconomic policies and demand performance [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Current steel inventory is above seasonal accumulation levels, leading to pressure on material de-stocking despite strong expectations for demand during peak season [1] - The raw material sector shows strong support, with iron ore performing well and coking coal trending positively due to low domestic production and expectations of reduced competition [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Positive factors include domestic expectations of reduced competition, strong demand for hot-rolled coils, expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, and favorable signals from US-China talks [1] - Negative factors consist of weak demand for rebar, excessive seasonal inventory accumulation, and significant inventory pressure, particularly for rebar with high warehouse receipt pressure [1]