医药股今日普遍重挫，截至发稿，三叶草生物-B(02197)跌14.43%，报2.49港元；荣昌生物(09995)跌 11.54%，报105.4港元；诺诚健华(09969)跌11.48%，报16.65港元；歌礼制药-B(01672)跌9.16%，报10.51 港元；泰格医药（300347）(03347)跌7.08%，报43.86港元。 国盛证券指出，过节期间，辉瑞和特朗普达成协议，部分解除了海外MNC的政策担忧，海外MNC迎来 修复，同时也带动港股医药情绪有所修复，对CXO带来正面影响，在这个影响下，中小市值创新药-B 公司尤其是未进通的表现弹性较大。这段时间CXO确实表现相对强势，有业绩期比较优势，也有降息 预期影响，也有行业趋势拐点向上预期影响，几点共振，中长期值得期待。创新药近期因为缺少催化， 借势消化筹码，也有企稳迹象，看好十一后，尤其是Q4创新药表现。 消息面上，中泰证券（600918）认为，9月板块延续震荡调整，主要由于3月以来医药板块超额明显，短 期内板块催化相对较少，板块缺少持续上行强动力；此外创新药板块年初以来涨幅较大，资金有兑现收 益的需求。该行认为阶段的震荡调整是相对良性的，且基本面来看创 ...

Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the copper price corrects, long positions can be considered for mid - term layout below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, pay attention to demand. Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Indonesian forestry department's takeover of part of the nickel mine [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamental situation remains weak, and it is affected by the Indonesian incident and macro - anti - involution expectations [6]. - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand will be in a tight balance in September and October, and the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan this week and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream is in the stage of consuming finished - product inventory [1]. - **Premium**: The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive arbitrage has room [1]. - **Macro**: Copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and attention should be paid to the possible realization of short - term bullish factors after the FOMC meeting next week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices declined slightly this week. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream开工 improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic supply is affected by smelter maintenance and high - volume imported zinc ore. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has production resistance [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fluctuated slightly this week. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehousing [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak [3]. - **News**: The Indonesian parade subsided, and the Indonesian forestry department took over part of the nickel mine [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices were stable this week. The inventory in Xijiao and Wuxi remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to recover, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6]. - **Cost**: The price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices rose this week. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to be tight, and demand is in the peak season but not prosperous [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Domestic inventory fluctuated, and LME inventory rebounded from a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is short - term tight, and demand has limited elasticity [9]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon changed this week, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance in September and October [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. The futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week, and the basis strengthened slightly [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by compliance disturbances, and the demand is in the peak season but the destocking amplitude is small [12]. - **Price Elasticity**: The price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the alumina industry are in a relatively stable supply - demand stage, with stable production and improved spot market transactions. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of the electrolytic aluminum industry may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand, with overseas interest - rate cut expectations driving the price up. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is also recommended to trade with a light position within a range, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of the cast - aluminum industry may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and recovering demand, with a dull spot market. It is suggested to trade with a light position within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 20,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 65 yuan, down 25 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 16,514 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,712 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars [2]. - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 2,937 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 42 yuan, up 3 yuan. The main contract position increased by 38,407 lots. The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 1,500 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the main cast - aluminum alloy contract was 20,460 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 40 yuan, down 25 yuan. The main contract position increased by 2,154 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The basis of cast - aluminum alloy was 590 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 40 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. - The SHFE aluminum premium/discount in Shanghai Wumaomao was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 15.98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was 28 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 4,900.05 tons, and the export volume increased by 15.06 tons [2]. - China's alumina export volume was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons. The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance decreased by 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.6 million tons to 58.6 million tons. The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 55,884.22 tons to 248,198.71 tons; the export volume increased by 21,416.99 tons to 40,987.71 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 98.11%, up 0.33 percentage points. The aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 53.4 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, unchanged. The national real - estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. - The aluminum alloy output was 153.6 million tons, down 13.3 million tons. The automobile output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum was 6.63%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.18%, down 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 11.12%, up 0.0002 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.15, down 0.033 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, covering cross - border cooperation, sports events, and market access in multiple fields [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing by 2.1% year - on - year, which may influence the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [2]. - Pan Gongsheng pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence and competition among a few sovereign currencies, and new technologies will drive the evolution of cross - border payment systems [2]. - As of the end of August, the national passenger - vehicle inventory decreased by 130,000 vehicles month - on - month, with rational production control by car companies from May to August [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina contract weakened in a volatile manner, with increased positions, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of bauxite was affected by the rainy season in Guinea, but domestic alumina production was stable. The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants was good, and the overall supply - demand was stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main SHFE aluminum contract declined in a volatile manner, with decreased positions, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of alumina was stable, and the profit of smelters was good, resulting in high - level production. The demand from downstream processing plants improved, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased. The option market was bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The main cast - aluminum alloy contract declined in a volatile manner, with increased positions, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, restricting production. The demand from downstream die - casting plants improved, but the spot market was dull. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with a slight upward trend, driven by macroeconomic policies and demand performance [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Current steel inventory is above seasonal accumulation levels, leading to pressure on material de-stocking despite strong expectations for demand during peak season [1] - The raw material sector shows strong support, with iron ore performing well and coking coal trending positively due to low domestic production and expectations of reduced competition [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Positive factors include domestic expectations of reduced competition, strong demand for hot-rolled coils, expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, and favorable signals from US-China talks [1] - Negative factors consist of weak demand for rebar, excessive seasonal inventory accumulation, and significant inventory pressure, particularly for rebar with high warehouse receipt pressure [1]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke is progressing rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of molten iron, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of recent environmental protection and production restriction measures by steel mills. The market is expected to fluctuate [2][3]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - Overseas interest rate cut expectations are strong, and there is a strong atmosphere of "anti - involution" in China. The prices of coking coal and coke futures showed a strong trend yesterday. After the market, there was news of an environmental protection and production restriction plan in Tangshan, causing the night session to open high and close low. Tangshan's steel and coking enterprises have started environmental protection and production restrictions. Steel mills have shut down 40% of their blast furnaces, and coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is around 75%. Steel mills have received the production restriction notice, but the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [2]. Coal Mine End - After some coal mines reduced prices, sales improved. The market still expects inventory replenishment before the National Day. Last week, coal production gradually recovered. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines was 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Due to the impact of production cuts and improved sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [3]. Demand Side - The resumption of production at steel mills is fast. Last week, the daily average molten iron output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before production restrictions. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of molten iron production, and the demand for raw materials will face a test in the later stage [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly overall yesterday and continued to rise at night due to the strong overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the strong domestic "anti - involution" atmosphere. The spot - end has completed 2 rounds of coke price cuts. The supply and demand sides of coal and coke are in a fast resumption process, especially the rapid recovery of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Coupled with the positive macro signals boosting market sentiment, the market is expected to run with an upward bias [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Logic - Overseas interest - rate cut expectation is strong, and the domestic "anti - involution" atmosphere is thick. The coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly yesterday and continued to rise at night. The mainstream steel mills adjusted the coke purchase price, and the coke price has completed 2 rounds of cuts [3] Coal Mine Situation - The coking coal market remains weak, with transaction prices mainly falling and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, some coal mines have better sales after price cuts, and the market still expects pre - National Day restocking. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 72.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 tons. Due to production cuts and better sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [4] Demand Situation - Steel mills are resuming production rapidly, with the daily average hot metal output last Sunday exceeding expectations and rising to 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons from the previous week, returning to the pre - restriction level. Currently, the steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. The finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the steel mill profits have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage [4]

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - rated research on the non - ferrous metals industry, including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient, with an increase in imported copper arrivals but no accumulation of domestic social inventories. Downstream开工 decreased, and they were in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, but the rigid purchasing ability was still good. Macroscopically, copper benefited from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and the overseas interest - rate cut expectation was further priced in. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the third and fourth quarters. If the short - term positive factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream开工 improved, with stable production schedules for photovoltaic modules, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory pattern, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC increased further. In September, due to concentrated maintenance, smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Overseas, the quarterly mine - end increment exceeded expectations, and China's zinc ore imports in July exceeded 500,000 tons, the highest in the past three years. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand was average, and some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventories continued to rise, while overseas LME inventories decreased, mainly flowing to Europe and the United States. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is about 1,000 - 1,200 yuan/ton away from opening. In terms of strategy, short - term unilateral positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [2] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level. Demand was generally weak, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, and the macro - level anti - involution sentiment rebounded. The Indonesian parade subsided, but it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, and follow - up attention is needed [3][4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually due to the military parade. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained generally weak, and the short - term macro - level followed the anti - involution expectation. The Indonesian parade subsided, and it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel [6] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year; the expansion of recycling plants led to a general shortage of waste batteries, and recycled lead maintained low - level operation under low profits. Demand had no obvious boost, and recyclers sold in small quantities; from April to August, the concentrate operation increased, but the smelting profit led to a supply shortage, and the TC quotation declined in a chaotic manner. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of batteries was high, the battery operation rate increased this week, but the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and there was an expectation of supply shortage. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. In September, the market had expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking intensity of terminal consumption and the purchasing intensity of lead ingots were both weak this week. The willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited intensity. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons. In August, the primary supply was flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production reduction and resumption of recycled lead occurred, and the supply is expected to be flat. The price rebound improved the recycled lead sales, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and the lead ingot spot was at a discount of 20. Demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level, and battery factories controlled production. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7][18] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee at the mine end was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Yunnan Tin started maintenance at the beginning of September for about 45 days. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was less than 200 metal tons, and the short - term raw material supply was tight, and the output may gradually increase after October; African tin mines have medium - and long - term increments but unstable short - term output; Indonesian exports are expected to resume in mid - to late September. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, the terminal electronic consumption had expectations of a peak season, but the expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth was strong, and the domestic inventory fluctuated; as Indonesia gradually resumed, the LME inventory rebounded from a low level. At the spot end, there was no obvious improvement in the consumption peak season, and the premium declined slightly. The domestic fundamentals remained in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the phased mismatch in supply in September and the expectation change of a non - prosperous peak season after the supply resumes in October, as well as the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals as a whole. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [11] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with 75 furnaces in operation. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some silicon factories in Xinjiang have plans to increase production later. In September, the balance is in a balanced state, and the increment space in the southwest at the current price is limited. The core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm in the southwest and Hesheng, the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, the operation rate is low, and the price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [12][14] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, due to the obvious de - stocking of lithium mines in the early stage, miners were not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also had a sentiment of holding up prices, and most scattered orders were pre - sold. In the spot market, the current basis level strengthened slightly, the large - discount goods decreased compared with the previous period, but the market supply was still abundant, and the quotes of new goods mostly fluctuated around par. The current contradiction is that in the context of an unfinished large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, the resource end faces periodic compliance disturbances. In the context of the current seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction has turned to continuous de - stocking, but the de - stocking amplitude is still small compared with the existing inventory level, and the demand performance has a greater impact on the de - stocking amplitude. In the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is high, and the price support is strong before the disturbances materialize [16]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜震荡整理 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价早盘探底回升，日内震荡上行，整体持仓量小幅上升， 主力期价尾盘再度触及 8.1 万关口。宏观层面，海外降息预期持续升 温，叠加 9 月议席会议临近，利好铜价。产业层面，周一库存小幅上 升，利空期价。技术上，关注 8.1 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘探底回升，日内震荡运行，持仓量变化不大。宏观 层面，海外降息预期持续升温，叠加 9 月议席会议临近，利好铝价。 产业层面，周一社库小幅上升，利空期价。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while supply of the five major steel materials is decreasing and demand is increasing, inventory levels are still accumulating, leading to a potentially weak fluctuation in steel prices [1] Group 2 - The hot-rolled coil shows a strong supply and demand dynamic, with inventory shifting from an increase to a decrease [1] - Rebar supply and demand are relatively weak, with demand falling short of expectations, continuing the trend of seasonal inventory accumulation [1] - Overall inventory of the five major materials is in a seasonal accumulation range, putting pressure on the basic steel market [1] Group 3 - On a macro level, expectations for overseas interest rate cuts are increasing, and domestic "anti-involution" policy expectations remain, creating a generally optimistic macro atmosphere that supports the market and limits price declines [1] - The current fundamental pressures are suppressing steel prices, with continuous inventory accumulation and significant shrinkage in steel mill profits, leading to negative feedback pressure [1] - It is anticipated that the market will continue to exhibit a weak fluctuation pattern, with future attention needed on macro policy trends and performance of demand during peak seasons [1] Group 4 - Positive factors include the ongoing expectations for domestic anti-involution policies and relatively good demand for hot-rolled coils [1] - Negative factors encompass poor demand for rebar, excessive seasonal inventory accumulation, and significant overall inventory pressure in steel materials [1] - Rebar futures contracts face substantial warehouse pressure, and steel mill profits are poor, increasing negative feedback pressure [1]