证券研究报告 固收视角 生产端有所收敛 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 | 张继强 | | --- | 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 12 月第三周，地产方面，地产成交热度小幅修复，但新房与二手房整体偏弱，叠加高基数影响，同比读数弱于前期， 房价有待改善，土地成交指标低位运行。生产端来看，工业方面，货运量韧性回落，生产开工率多数偏弱，地炼开工 率修复，焦化、高炉、汽车边际偏弱，基数对读数有扰动。建筑业方面，水泥与黑色供需偏弱运行，库存小幅去化， 沥青开工率 ...

报告导读： 中观景气延续分化， AI 产业链延续高景气，存储器继续涨价；服务消费需求 同比明显提升；工业金属价格大幅上涨；地产链和耐用品景气边际下滑。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强。 上周（ 12.01-12.07 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）全球 AI 基建持续带动电子产业链需求提升，高端存 储器 DRAM DDR4 价格延续上涨，国内 AI 模型和端侧 AI 手机陆续取得突破，后续仍需关注 AI 应用商业进展以及资本开支持续性； 2 ）服务消费和出行景 气边际有所回落，但 11 月以来景区出行、电影票房均明显好于 24 年同期，或表明传统内需偏弱下，居民更注重"吃喝玩乐"型的轻消费类型，多地实施秋假 也对服务消费景气 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The market is worried about the tight supply of copper ore due to Chile raising the premium on copper spot to China and CSPT members reducing the mine - copper production capacity load by 10% next year. The supply of refined copper in China is increasing as the smelters are operating well and the previously affected production capacity is gradually resuming. The high copper price in the short - term suppresses the downstream purchasing sentiment, and the downstream is more cautious, mainly replenishing goods based on rigid demand. The year - end sales rush of car companies and the rush work of the power system provide some demand resilience for Shanghai copper, and the social inventory is still slightly decreasing. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. The report suggests light - position volatile trading and attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 91,850 yuan/ton, up 760 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,613 dollars/ton, up 126 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 70 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 200,373 lots, down 10,199 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 44,609 lots, down 10,180 lots. The LME copper inventory is 165,675 tons, up 1,125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 88,905 tons, down 9,025 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 63,100 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 28,931 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 91,700 yuan/ton, down 515 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper is 91,675 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 42 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 1,275 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 0 dollars/ton, down 8.19 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.86 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars/kiloton. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 81,950 yuan/metal ton, down 600 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 82,650 yuan/metal ton, down 600 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,990 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 4,824.34 billion yuan, up 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.15%, up 0.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.17%, down 0.33%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 16.28%, down 0.0430%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, up 0.0131 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the retail industry should be the key focus for cultivating a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic cycle, promoting the industry to shift towards quality - driven and service - driven development. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third time with internal differences, and the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized that China's economy will maintain a steady and positive momentum, with the economic aggregate reaching a new level and industrial upgrading creating new development space. In November, the CPI decreased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. With inventory depletion and some steel mills' maintenance production, market enthusiasm was generally high, the fundamentals warmed up slightly, and raw material support remained strong, resulting in a relatively high bottom for steel prices. Looking ahead, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, inventory depletion continues at a relatively fast pace, and currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and the overseas expectation of interest rate cuts, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate widely at low levels [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of December 5th, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3326 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3511 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 38 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons (-1.01%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar steel mill inventory was 142.68 million tons, a decrease of 4.05 million tons (-2.76%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar social inventory was 361.13 million tons, a decrease of 23.62 million tons (-6.14%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 79.92 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons (2.44%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 320.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.45 million tons (-0.76%) compared to the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Views - The expectation of overseas interest rate cuts is strengthening, which may lead to a corresponding adjustment in domestic monetary policy. The reserve requirement ratio is expected to trend downward, positively impacting short-term steel prices. Historical data shows that after 10 instances of reserve requirement cuts since 2020, the average increase in rebar prices was 20, 42, 45, 41, and 26 CNY/ton in the first five trading days post-cut, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Steel inventory is being reduced smoothly, and there is a positive outlook for the real estate sector, leading to a slight increase in steel prices. However, the profitability of steel companies has not shown significant improvement due to sustained high prices of iron ore and coke. It is expected that steel production will continue to decline as companies proactively reduce inventory and conduct maintenance towards the end of the year. Demand may also weaken seasonally [4][5]. - The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.12% year-on-year but decreased by 0.81% month-on-month. The production of five major steel products decreased by 2.20% year-on-year but increased by 0.74% month-on-month, with daily molten iron production dropping to 2.3468 million tons [4][5]. Price Trends - Recent price trends show that Shanghai rebar has risen to 3,260 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled steel has reached 3,270 CNY/ton, up by 20 CNY/ton. The estimated profit for rebar is -134 CNY/ton, with a lagging cost profit of -99 CNY/ton [5]. Long-term Outlook - The renewed overseas interest rate cut cycle is expected to stabilize medium-term demand expectations for manufacturing. Although direct export demand for steel is limited, there is significant indirect demand through downstream sectors such as machinery, automotive, and home appliances. If overseas manufacturing recovers, it could stabilize steel manufacturing demand. The demand side for steel is expected to remain stable in 2026, driven by reduced production and improved cost structures [7][8].

对于未来铜价走势，广发期货分析称，随着供应的逐步紧缺得到共识，下游对铜价的心理价位上限逐步上移。 自由港公司预计Grasberg Block Cave地下矿将于2026年Q2陆续复产，短期铜矿供应紧缺格局不变，关注年末长 单TC谈判及副产品价格走势，0及以下的长单TC以及副产品价格走弱或引发市场对未来减产的担忧。中长期的 供需矛盾支撑铜价底部重心逐步上移，关注海外降息预期等宏观驱动。 周三，因为市场普遍预期美联储将在下个月降息，伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜显著走高，连续四个交易日上 涨，触及近一个月来的最高水平。本月迄今伦铜上涨0.77%，今年迄今上涨24.88%。 据外媒报道，智利国家铜业公司提出以每吨335美元的溢价，向部分买家供应2026年年度合同所需铜材，该溢 价是伦敦金属交易所价格之上计算的。 国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有4.1万吨盈 余。 荷兰国际集团(ING)大宗商品分析师表示，铜价上涨风险正在增长，在供应挑战、库存低迷和持续的贸易扭曲 的影响下，2026年供需平衡将趋紧。 | 今开:10965.00 | 昨结: 10975.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened. In the short term, as the overseas interest rate cut expectation rebounds, the market risk appetite increases, and the price forms a certain support at a low level. At the same time, the market expectation of real estate stabilization policies has increased, but the specific situation remains to be observed. The short-term steel price trend is relatively firm and operates in a range [3][9]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened [9]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities showed an upward trend, and the prices of imported iron ore also increased slightly. The prices of coking coal decreased, while the prices of coke remained stable. In terms of futures contracts, the prices of some contracts increased, while others decreased. The positions of long and short sides in some contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The weekly production of rebar blast furnaces was 207.96 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 316.01 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased, while the electric furnace production decreased [13][16][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 82.19% (a week-on-week decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 0.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.13% (a week-on-week increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils both weakened on a week-on-week basis. The profit of rebar was -30 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 1 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 94 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -57 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 16 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 121 yuan/ton) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.66% and a year-on-year increase of 2.41%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 324.42 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.73%) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The total inventory of rebar was 553.34 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.32%). The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory remaining stable. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 402.11 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.05% and a year-on-year increase of 27.56%) [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both improved on a week-on-week basis. In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles in October continued to increase both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, setting a new high for the same period in history [46][49][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrival volume at ports increased. The iron ore price index was 103.71 (a week-on-week increase of 0.62% and a year-on-year increase of 0.94%). The shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2637.4 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 9.32% and a year-on-year increase of 3.52%), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2817.1 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 24.16% and a year-on-year increase of 22.63%) [54][58]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased on a week-on-week basis, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 236.28 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.48 million tons), the port clearance volume of 45 iron ore ports was 329.92 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year increase of 0.90%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.86 days (a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%) [59][63]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises also decreased slightly. The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 15054.65 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.50% and a year-on-year increase of 0.05%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.65 days (a week-on-week decrease of 5.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.05%) [64][69]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.94% (a week-on-week increase of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.09%), and the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 18.82 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 5.45% and a year-on-year increase of 12.42%) [71][75]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased on a week-on-week basis. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was +37.3% (a week-on-week decrease of 35.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.64%), and the weekly transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 59% (a week-on-week decrease of 17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%) [76][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was +19 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 53 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 7 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 71.71% (a week-on-week increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased on a week-on-week basis, and the inventory of coking plants also decreased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 888.87 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 18.02%), the coking coal inventory of steel plants was 797.30 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 6.89%), and the port inventory of coking coal was 291.5 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 37.82%) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory of coke decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.44 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 20.17% and a year-on-year increase of 7.87%), the coke inventory of steel plants was 622.34 million tons (remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year increase of 4.48%), and the port inventory of coke was 193 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.93%) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the price remained stable for the time being, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 80 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke was 1540 yuan/ton (in Handan, remaining stable on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton) [97][102]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1-5 spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar widened slightly, and the 1-5 spreads of coking coal and coke continued to shrink [104][108].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on November 12, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a slight pullback [1] - The Tianhong Hong Kong Technology ETF (159128) was officially listed and traded, with a transaction volume exceeding 20 million yuan [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which consists of the top 30 Hong Kong stocks related to technology themes, covering areas such as AI, smart vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Market Performance - Among the constituent stocks, Baijia Shenzhou rose over 6%, while other notable gainers included Xinda Bio, Kangfang Bio, and WuXi Biologics [1] - As of November 11, the top 10 constituent stocks accounted for over 75% of the index, indicating a high concentration [1] Valuation Metrics - The current TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is at the 36th percentile over the past five years, suggesting a historically low valuation level [1] - The ETF also includes off-market linked funds (A: 024885, C: 024886) [1] Economic Outlook - Expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. are rising, with a 67.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December according to CME FedWatch [2] - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong stock market could reach new highs due to the influx of capital and the gathering of quality assets, with a focus on technology stocks [2] Market Sentiment - The foundation of the Hong Kong bull market remains intact, but the evolution is likely to be characterized by "volatile upward movement" rather than rapid increases [2] - The strong fundamental drivers in November highlight the importance of high-growth sectors, with opportunities emerging amid market fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks collectively surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rising 4.89% to HKD 14.15, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.54% to HKD 6.72, Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing 3.2% to HKD 32.92, and Zijin Mining (601899) climbing 2.68% to HKD 35.2 [1] - The recent landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has led Freeport-McMoRan, the operator, to invoke "force majeure" clauses, significantly impacting global copper supply [1] Group 2: Global Copper Supply Forecast - Following the Grasberg incident, Citigroup adjusted its global copper supply forecast, predicting a production of 23.15 million tons in 2025, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, and 23.46 million tons in 2026, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, both lower than previous estimates [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Copper Prices - Copper prices rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts this month, with overseas rate cut expectations being a dominant factor [2] - The labor market data remains a key influence on U.S. rate cut expectations, but delays in data publication due to government shutdowns may lead to fluctuating expectations [2] - As long as recession risks do not materialize, significant declines in copper prices are unlikely [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks collectively surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 4.89% to HKD 14.15, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.54% to HKD 6.72, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 3.2% to HKD 32.92, and Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.68% to HKD 35.2 [1] - The recent landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has led Freeport-McMoRan, the operator, to invoke "force majeure" clauses, significantly impacting global copper supply [1] Group 2: Global Copper Supply Forecast - Citigroup has revised its global copper supply forecast, predicting a production of 23.15 million tons in 2025, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, and 23.46 million tons in 2026, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Copper Prices - Following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting a potential interest rate cut this month, copper prices have rebounded, with overseas rate cut expectations being a dominant factor [2] - The labor market data remains a key influence on U.S. rate cut expectations, but delays in data release due to government shutdowns may lead to fluctuating expectations [2] - As long as recession risks do not materialize, significant declines in copper prices are unlikely [2]