上周，美国总统特朗普就美元有关问题作出回应，被市场视为"对外释放容忍美元贬值"。其言论看似是 对短期汇率波动的轻描淡写，实则反映出美国政府对美元国际价值的态度发生转变。美国"唱衰"美元， 不仅会直接加剧美元长期跌势，影响全球资本流向，也牵动着全球金融体系传导机制的重塑。 责任编辑：栎树 有分析认为，在美联储独立性受疑、关税举措不确定、财政赤字高企、全球去美元化趋势暗流涌动等背 景下，这种表态不啻为对美元结构性弱势的政策确认，"尽管风险资产表现良好，但美元可能承压"。此 番发言后，衡量美元对6种主要货币的美元指数加速下跌至交易日低点95.566，创下自2022年2月以来的 新低。 本届美国政府释放容忍美元贬值的信号，其短期内提升美国出口竞争力的意图十分明显，这也符合特朗 普一贯的"美国优先"经济逻辑。然而，美元作为全球储备货币，在享受交易与结算便利的同时，也需要 维系各方对美元价值长期的基本信任。容忍美元贬值的策略会进一步削弱美元国际地位。当国际储备货 币的发行国政府明确表露出对货币价值漠不关心，甚至乐于见到其贬值时，国际持有者的信心势必遭受 根本性动摇。这可能导致全球官方与私人投资者重新评估其资产配置中的美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is maintaining a strong oscillating trend against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policies, commodity prices, and inflation data between Australia and the US [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has indicated rising uncertainty regarding the sufficiency of current restrictive policies, with expectations for at least two rate hikes in 2026, potentially starting as early as February, depending on the upcoming CPI report [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has already cut rates by 75 basis points in 2025, with increasing internal disagreements on the pace of future cuts, leading to a cautious approach among officials [1]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Economic Outlook - The Australian dollar benefits from its status as a commodity currency, with rising prices for key exports like gold and iron ore, and the Australian government has raised its forecasts for commodity export revenues [2]. - The weakening US dollar index provides additional support for the AUD, with expectations of continued declines due to factors like interest rate cuts and fiscal deficits [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently in a strong upward trend, supported by technical indicators such as the 9-day moving average and a relative strength index of 64.22, indicating strong momentum without entering overbought territory [2]. - Key resistance is identified at the 14-month high of 0.6727, with potential for further upward movement towards 0.6840 if this level is breached [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The AUD is expected to maintain a strong trend in the medium to long term, supported by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, and structural weaknesses in the USD [3]. - Short-term risks include potential economic outperformance in the US, slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts, or a slowdown in the Chinese economy affecting commodity demand, which could lead to a temporary pullback in the AUD [3].