本周，美元指数表现亮眼，尽管美国政府停摆进入第二周，美元走势依然稳如磐石。今日亚欧时段，美 元指数略有回落，仍接近周四创下的两个月高点99.55，本周迄今仍上涨1.7%，有望创下一年来最佳周 度表现。 周五（10月10日）欧洲时段，美元指数跌破99.50，美元近期的复苏态势受阻，在前一交易日触及两个 月高点后，美元指数小幅下跌，日内关注美国10月一年期通胀率预期初值，美国10月密歇根大学消费者 信心指数初值等数据。 在就业数据公布前，美元指数有望维持99-99.5区间震荡。若鲍威尔在即将召开的社区银行会议中释 放"鸽派"信号，可能引发回调；但若强调"通胀粘性"，则可能助推指数突破99.5阻力位。 周五(10月10日)共和党提出的为美国政府提供资金并结束停摆的议案还是未能在参议院获得通过所需的 票数。美国政府停摆已进入第九天，几乎没有任何进展迹象。 高市早苗在日本执政党党首选举中胜出，市场预期其政策将延续超宽松货币政策，导致日元承压。但高 市早苗最新表态称"无意引发日元过度疲软"，为日元提供喘息机会。 法国总统马克龙预计将于周五任命新总理，此举缓解了市场对法国提前举行大选的担忧，减轻了欧元压 力。 特朗普表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of "confidence" in the Chinese economy, likening it to a theatrical play titled "Waiting for Confidence," where confidence is a crucial yet elusive element for economic recovery [4][6]. Group 1: Importance of Confidence - Confidence is described as a "metaphysical" element that drives economic actions and decisions, transforming uncertainty into actionable expectations [6][8]. - The article emphasizes that confidence cannot be artificially created through policies or data alone; it exists in the collective consciousness of individuals [8][22]. Group 2: Case Study of Argentina - Argentina serves as a case study where confidence was temporarily restored through external intervention, specifically a $200 billion currency swap line from the U.S. Treasury, which provided a significant credit backing to the Argentine central bank [12][14]. - Historical parallels are drawn to past crises, such as the 1994-1995 Mexican Tequila Crisis, where similar confidence-boosting measures were effective [14][15]. Group 3: Challenges in Restoring Confidence - Despite temporary boosts in confidence, the article questions whether it can be sustained, highlighting that market participants remain skeptical and risk premiums are still high [21][22]. - The political landscape in Argentina poses a significant challenge, as any signs of failure in reforms can lead to a rapid loss of confidence among investors [21][22].

近年来，美国凭借美元霸权，主导了全球金融体系超过半个世纪，美元不仅是全球贸易的核心，也深深嵌入了美国的经济政策。 随着中国、俄罗斯等新兴经济体崛起，以及许多国家对美国政策的不满，去美元化的趋势正在加速。 42个国家正努力减少对美元的依赖，推动本国数字货币的发展。 美国靠美元当 "世界霸王"，印钱想让中国百姓买单？42国联手破局！ 美元能够成为全球经济的主导货币，并非一蹴而就。 其历史背景源于20世纪初，特别是在两次世界大战期间，全球经济的重心逐渐转移到美国。 美国的地理位置和强大的生产能力，使得其在战争期间成了唯一没有直接遭受大规模破坏的工业大国。 在此期间，尤其是第二次世界大战，全球约75%的黄金储备被美国所吸纳。 战后，美国为了巩固自己的经济优势，提出了建立布雷顿森林体系的计划，并成功地推行。 布雷顿森林体系的核心思想就是将美元与黄金挂钩，美元成为全球唯一的储备货币。 在这一体系下，各国的国际贸易和结算都需要使用美元，这为美国提供了巨大的经济优势。 在此背景下，世界各国的金融体系和贸易都变得与美元息息相关。 美国通过美元不断扩大自己的影响力，其他国家也逐渐形成了依赖美元的局面。 这一体系维持了多达数十年， ...

Economic Development - The 2025 Policy Address emphasizes "improving people's livelihoods" and "economic development" as its main themes, proposing several breakthrough policies to consolidate Hong Kong's status as an international financial center[6] - The government aims to foster emerging industries such as advanced manufacturing, life sciences, new energy, artificial intelligence, and data science to create high-quality jobs and enhance overall economic efficiency[5][7] Capital Market Initiatives - The government plans to assist mainland tech companies in financing through the "Tech Enterprise Channel" and improve the main board listing system and issuance mechanisms for structured products[8] - Initiatives include optimizing regulations for "same share, different rights" listings and exploring a T+1 settlement cycle to attract more overseas companies to list in Hong Kong[8] Currency and Bond Market Development - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will introduce a new "Renminbi Business Funding Arrangement" to enhance liquidity in the offshore RMB market, supported by a currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China[11] - Plans to upgrade financial infrastructure and promote offshore Chinese government bonds as collateral to expand the application of RMB assets in the bond market[9] Financial Technology Advancements - The HKMA will continue to advance the Ensemble project, promoting tokenized deposit products and facilitating the issuance of tokenized bonds[13] - The report highlights the importance of regulatory sandboxes to encourage banks to strengthen risk management capabilities and the establishment of a risk prevention system in the digital asset sector[13]

Economic Growth and Financial System - Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by 2% to 3% this year, marking a positive turnaround since the current administration took office [1] - The government aims to strengthen Hong Kong's financial system, regaining its position as the third global financial center according to the Global Financial Centers Index [1] Stock Market Enhancement - The Hang Seng Index has risen over 20% since the beginning of the year, with average daily trading volume nearing 250 billion HKD, almost doubling from last year [2] - New stock fundraising has reached over 130 billion HKD by the end of August, representing a nearly sixfold year-on-year increase, making Hong Kong the top global market for new listings [2] - Initiatives include assisting mainland tech companies in financing through a "Tech Enterprise Line," optimizing the main board listing mechanism, and exploring a T+1 settlement cycle [2] Bond Market Development - The government plans to solidify Hong Kong's status as a bond center by enhancing financial infrastructure and creating a centralized platform for managing various assets [3] - Collaboration with international markets, including Switzerland and the UAE, is being pursued to expand the bond market [3] - The Securities and Futures Commission is exploring the feasibility of an electronic bond trading platform and promoting a commercial repo market [3] Currency Market Growth - Hong Kong is the largest offshore RMB business hub, with plans to enhance liquidity and global reach through new RMB financing arrangements [5] - The government will issue more RMB bonds and explore using RMB for government expenditures [5] Gold Market Expansion - The government has accepted recommendations to develop Hong Kong into a regional gold storage hub, aiming to exceed 2,000 tons in three years [6] - Initiatives include establishing a central clearing system for gold transactions and promoting the issuance of gold investment products [7] Insurance and Asset Management - The government will revise regulations to lower capital requirements for infrastructure investments, promoting insurance participation in financing [8] - Hong Kong is expected to become the largest cross-border wealth management center, with significant growth in investment accounts from mainland investors [9] Financial Technology Advancement - The Monetary Authority is advancing the Ensemble project to support the development of tokenized markets and improve risk management [10] - Legislative proposals are being developed for digital asset trading and custody services [10] Sustainable Finance Initiatives - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange launched an international carbon trading platform, aiming to enhance cooperation with the Greater Bay Area on carbon market development [11] International Trade and Infrastructure - The government is focused on enhancing international trade networks and infrastructure connectivity, including cross-border railway projects to improve regional integration [12]

Summary of Key Points on RMB Internationalization Industry Overview - The report discusses the internationalization of China's Renminbi (RMB) and its current status in global finance, highlighting the contrast between China's economic significance and the RMB's limited global use [3][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Current Status of RMB**: Despite China's growing economic power, the RMB's share in global finance remains low, at just 2.6 in an index of international currency usage compared to 66.6 for the USD [4][36]. 2. **Internationalization Process**: The typical steps for currency internationalization include increased trade settlement, broader use in trade financing, and higher central bank reserve allocations. The RMB is seeing growth in trade invoicing and financing, but its overall financial market presence remains limited [3][17][30]. 3. **Geopolitical Influences**: Recent geopolitical shifts, such as the sanctions on Russia, have increased the desire among emerging market (EM) central banks to diversify away from the USD, potentially accelerating RMB internationalization [13][49]. 4. **Challenges to RMB Internationalization**: Major challenges include balancing government control with the need for openness in financial markets, as well as the impact of innovations like stablecoins on traditional currency systems [78][79]. 5. **Unique Features of RMB Internationalization**: The Chinese government may focus on expanding the offshore CNH market while maintaining the onshore CNY market, and foreign direct investment (FDI) may play a more significant role compared to portfolio investment due to strict capital controls [69][70]. Additional Important Insights 1. **China's Economic Growth**: China's GDP share in the global economy has increased significantly, from 6% to 19% since 2000, while the US and Euro area shares have declined [8][12]. 2. **Trade Dynamics**: China has become the largest contributor to global goods trade, with 33% of global manufacturing value-added, indicating a strong position for RMB in trade [8][12]. 3. **Historical Context**: The transition to a dominant currency is rare and typically takes a long time, as seen in the historical shift from the British Pound to the USD [53][54]. 4. **Central Bank Reserve Management**: Central banks prioritize factors like economic size, market depth, and geopolitical stability when allocating reserves, which currently favors the USD [36][49]. 5. **Future Outlook**: If China can continue to grow its economy and promote RMB use in trade, there is potential for the RMB's share in official reserves to increase significantly from its current level [60][61].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Shigeru Ishiba has led to increased political instability in Japan, causing fluctuations in the yen and impacting market volatility [2][4][6]. Political Developments - Ishiba announced his resignation during an emergency press conference, stating he would take responsibility until a new president is elected, expressing regret over not meeting public expectations and addressing issues like the "black money" scandal [6][7]. - The LDP is expected to hold a presidential election soon, with candidates having 1-2 weeks for campaigning. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second round will be held [7][8]. - Key contenders for the new LDP president include Sanae Takaichi and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, with Takaichi currently leading in polls [7]. Market Reactions - Following Ishiba's resignation, the yen depreciated sharply, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising by 0.79% [4][6]. - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.81%, indicating a positive market response despite political uncertainty [6]. US-Japan Trade Agreement - The details of a significant trade agreement between the US and Japan, involving a $550 billion strategic investment, have been revealed, with the US retaining final decision-making authority over investment projects [10][11]. - Japan faces the risk of new tariffs from the US if it refuses to fund selected projects, highlighting the power dynamics in the agreement [10]. - The profit-sharing structure of the investment is notable, with Japan receiving 10% of profits after recovering its initial investment, while the US retains 90% thereafter, resembling a debt-like investment rather than traditional equity [11][12]. Strategic Investment Focus - The $550 billion investment will target key strategic sectors identified by Washington, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, shipbuilding, energy, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing [12].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China aims to enhance the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery in a complex market environment [1] Group 1: Policy Coordination - The joint working group emphasizes the importance of fiscal and monetary policy synergy as a strong guarantee for economic recovery [1] - The next steps include deepening cooperation and enhancing collaboration to ensure effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [1] Group 2: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China has introduced new monetary policy tools, including the buying and selling of government bonds, to improve liquidity management [1] - The first official meeting of the joint working group highlighted the significance of these operations in enriching the monetary policy toolkit [1] Group 3: Debt Issuance - The Ministry of Finance reported a record high in the issuance scale of government bonds in the first half of 2025, supported by collaboration with relevant departments and the underwriting team [1] - The Ministry plans to complete the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds as scheduled to support key projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Trump Dilemma" is pushing the global economy towards a new monetary paradigm, with the Trump administration facing conflicting goals regarding the U.S. dollar's strength and its implications for trade and manufacturing [1][23]. Group 1: Dollar Policy and Economic Impact - Since Trump's second term began, the U.S. dollar index has dropped by 10.7%, falling below the 97 mark, reflecting a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy [1]. - The Trump administration is caught between weakening the dollar to reduce trade deficits and attract manufacturing back to the U.S., versus maintaining the dollar's global dominance [1][23]. - A weaker dollar could benefit U.S. exports and manufacturing, aligning with Trump's policy goals of reducing trade deficits and revitalizing domestic industries [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context of Dollar Policies - Historically, U.S. administrations have favored a strong dollar policy, viewing it as essential for maintaining the country's global status and credibility [3]. - The Clinton administration established a strong dollar policy in the 1990s to combat inflation and attract foreign investment, a stance that has been echoed by subsequent administrations [3][6]. - Trump's approach marks a significant departure, as he has openly criticized the strong dollar, arguing that a weaker dollar would benefit U.S. businesses [3][8]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Challenges - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a transition period, with high interest rates and tariffs negatively impacting manufacturing and consumer purchasing power [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, which could further influence the dollar's strength and the overall economic landscape [11]. - The U.S. federal debt has ballooned from $4 trillion to $37 trillion over 30 years, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the implications for dollar policy [12]. Group 4: Global Dollar Dynamics - The dollar's share in global reserves has decreased from approximately 72% in 2000 to 57.74% in early 2025, indicating a trend towards diversification in the international monetary system [20]. - Various countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade settlements, including bilateral agreements for local currency transactions and the use of gold [20][21]. - The Trump administration is attempting to reinforce the dollar's dominance through policies that promote the "petrodollar" system and threaten tariffs on countries that pursue de-dollarization [21][22]. Group 5: Future Implications - The conflicting goals of the Trump administration may accelerate the "de-dollarization" process, as trade protectionism could disrupt the traditional flow of dollars to emerging economies [24][25]. - As the U.S. reduces its dollar output while maintaining a strong stance against alternatives, countries may increasingly seek to use non-dollar currencies, undermining the dollar's global status [25]. - The erosion of dollar dominance could have profound implications for the U.S. economy, potentially leading to a decline in its global economic influence and stability [25].

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the Renminbi (RMB) from an obscure currency to a globally recognized one reflects China's rise in economic power and influence [1][30]. Historical Context - Decades ago, the RMB had little presence internationally, with China playing a minor role in global trade [4][10]. - In the past, Chinese travelers had to exchange RMB for more widely accepted currencies like USD or HKD, highlighting its limited international usability [6][10]. - The RMB was not recognized as a significant currency due to China's weaker economic status at the time [11][10]. Currency Recognition - The name of a currency signifies international recognition, which the RMB lacked in earlier decades [8][10]. - The RMB's absence from the global financial system meant it could not function as a hard currency in international trade [10][24]. Economic Transformation - With China's economic growth, the RMB's status has significantly improved, becoming more accepted in international transactions [13][24]. - The RMB's international standard name is "CNY," which is recognized globally, while "RMB" is more of a domestic abbreviation [16][18]. Offshore Market - The offshore version of the RMB, known as "CNH," emerged to facilitate international transactions, particularly in markets like Hong Kong [18][20]. - The distinction between CNY and CNH reflects different regulatory environments and trading conditions for the RMB [20]. Global Financial Integration - The RMB's inclusion in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket marks a significant milestone in its internationalization [24]. - More countries are incorporating RMB into their foreign exchange reserves, indicating its growing acceptance as a store of value [24][26]. Future Prospects - The trend shows an increasing willingness among countries to accept RMB, with more platforms for RMB transactions being established [28]. - The potential for RMB to become a global currency is evident, as it may one day allow Chinese travelers to use it directly abroad without needing to exchange for other currencies [28][30].