美国财政部的数据很直白，2025年Q3末，国库账户还有约6700亿美元现金，社保和医疗这类大项支出照旧——"我们都在看TGA余额，没跌破警戒线，没人 慌。"一位基金经理小吴边喝咖啡边说，"只要不闹到极端，大家都当作假期。" 不过有意思的细节在于，负责政府采购的某小公司老板发朋友圈：本月账期延后，现金流紧张，晚上请客吃饭都改约下月了。金融圈的分析师们倒是提前准 备了"剧本"：如果停摆拖过两周，预计GDP影响0.18%，但没人会真关心小数点后第二位——这像极了炒股APP里的"风险提示"，总有人跳出来提醒，但大 多数人滑着手机继续看短视频。 换个角度，2025年10月2日，美联储的逆回购数据还在刷屏，市场流动性像提前准备好的备用粮仓，没到断粮的地步。隔壁银行的理财顾问张姐私下说："客 户问我会不会爆雷，我说你看美国国债利率，没涨，别自己吓自己。"她边说边把客户微信拉入群，群名叫"稳健投资不焦虑"，气氛比网购砍价群还佛系。 2025年10月1日凌晨三点，华盛顿市中心的路灯还亮着，国会山前的雕像像往常一样冷漠地盯着夜色，街边有外卖员在等订单，手机屏幕反射着蓝光，有人 刷到新闻说政府又关门了，评论区一片吐槽——"这都第几 ...

Core Insights - Since 2025, the London and Shanghai gold indices have increased by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively, with recent weekly changes of 1.61% and 1.39% [1] - The U.S. CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has since shown a downward trend, with a recent CPI of 2.4% in May 2023, slightly below expectations [1] - The balance of gold supply and demand remains tight, with increased investment demand contributing to a reduction in the global gold supply's looseness in 2024 [1] Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees increased by 0.3% in May 2025, remaining stable for three consecutive months [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential rate cut in September 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term while supporting short-term growth [1] - Central bank gold purchases, ETF investments, and a weak dollar are anticipated to support gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to factors such as a weakening dollar and geopolitical instability driving central bank purchases [1]