Group 1 - The government shutdown has become a routine occurrence, with citizens expressing a sense of resignation as their salaries remain unaffected [1][3] - The financial markets are largely unfazed by the shutdown, with the VIX index showing minimal fluctuations and traders maintaining a calm demeanor [4][10] - Companies reliant on government contracts, particularly in the defense sector, are experiencing slight stock price increases, while other sectors like banking are seeing net redemptions in ETFs [6][8] Group 2 - The impact of the shutdown on GDP is projected to be minimal, with estimates suggesting a 0.18% decrease if the shutdown lasts over two weeks [3] - Tech companies report little disruption, attributing their resilience to diversified revenue streams, while government-dependent firms are adjusting payment schedules [6][8] - Market sentiment remains stable, with investors confident that the Federal Reserve will intervene if the situation escalates [10]

Core Insights - Since 2025, the London and Shanghai gold indices have increased by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively, with recent weekly changes of 1.61% and 1.39% [1] - The U.S. CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has since shown a downward trend, with a recent CPI of 2.4% in May 2023, slightly below expectations [1] - The balance of gold supply and demand remains tight, with increased investment demand contributing to a reduction in the global gold supply's looseness in 2024 [1] Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees increased by 0.3% in May 2025, remaining stable for three consecutive months [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential rate cut in September 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term while supporting short-term growth [1] - Central bank gold purchases, ETF investments, and a weak dollar are anticipated to support gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to factors such as a weakening dollar and geopolitical instability driving central bank purchases [1]