Group 1: Global Economic Impact of Tariffs - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% in 2023, significantly higher than the 2.4% in 2024, which may increase inflation and weaken corporate profitability [3] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes a slowdown in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and potential restructuring of global supply chains [3] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts by June 2024, amounting to 100 basis points [6][7] - High tariffs may hinder the Fed's ability to cut rates due to rising inflation and weakening corporate earnings [6] Group 3: Precious Metals and Investment Strategies - Gold prices are expected to rise, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by geopolitical risks and increased central bank gold reserves [8] - The market may see a correction in gold prices due to reduced uncertainty from tariff policies and a historical high price level [8] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - U.S. economic and stock market pressures may lead to a decline in trust in dollar assets, while European stocks may attract investment due to lower valuations [10] - A-shares and H-shares are expected to benefit from policy support and improved fundamentals, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology growth sectors [10] Group 5: Sector Focus in Chinese Market - The market is showing a "high-low" switching characteristic influenced by infrastructure policies and trade risks, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology sectors [13] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor and technology index stocks [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [22]. Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [11]. - The U.S. tariff policy is likely to slow global trade flows, reduce investment and consumption growth, and reshape global supply chains, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" and "multilateralization" of trade among non-U.S. economies [11]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged as long as the U.S. economy and labor market remain robust, with market expectations for rate cuts cooling down [14]. - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates four times by June next year, totaling 100 basis points [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to increase their allocation to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus plan [20]. - A focus on Chinese A-shares and H-shares is recommended, as they are likely to attract international capital inflows due to policy support and improving fundamentals [20]. Group 4: Sector Focus in China - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technology events [23]. - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is projected to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [23].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global capital market continues to exhibit a complex and volatile trend as of July, with macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and monetary policies influencing the market outlook for August [1] - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [8][12] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes potential slowdowns in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and a reshaping of global supply chains [8] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The trade agreements reached have prevented the implementation of higher tariffs, which is generally favorable for the market; however, the tariffs already in effect since April have led to a notable decline in U.S. imports and affected consumer confidence [8][11] - The tariffs have a more pronounced effect on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum, with significant declines in revenue and profitability for companies heavily exposed to the U.S. market [8][11] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [9] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts anticipated by June next year, amounting to 100 basis points [11][13] - High tariffs may constrain the Fed's ability to lower rates, as they could lead to increased inflation and weakened consumer and investment activity in the U.S. [12] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The outlook for gold prices is positive, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks increasing gold reserves [14] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus [18] - Chinese equity assets are projected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and improved fundamentals [20] Group 5: Sector Focus - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technological advancements [21] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to pay attention to semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [21] - For low-risk investors, there are opportunities in undervalued stocks with cash value and liquidation reassessment potential, particularly in sectors that have lagged since last year [22]

Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current challenges facing gold prices, indicating that the recent rebound is encountering resistance [1] - There is anticipation regarding the impact of the upcoming ADP non-farm employment data on market volatility [1] - Lucia, a full-time trader from an institution, is providing live analysis on the gold market trends [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the insufficient momentum behind the rebound of gold prices and questions whether this weakness will continue [1] - It highlights the need for specific catalysts to support a trend reversal in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current downward trend in gold prices and questions whether a short-term rebound is possible [1] - It highlights the dominance of bearish sentiment in the market and the potential for this trend to strengthen further [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by a full-time trader, Lucia, to provide insights on the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant setback in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, with both Israel and the U.S. recalling their delegations for urgent consultations due to Hamas's lack of sincerity in the talks [2] - The humanitarian situation in Gaza is deteriorating, with severe food shortages, lack of medical resources, and damaged infrastructure, prompting international concern and calls for urgent humanitarian aid [2] - The U.S. is reassessing its strategy to ensure the safety of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza [2] Group 2 - The current trading of London gold is showing a slight bearish trend, with prices around $3364.80 per ounce, reflecting a 0.09% decrease [1] - The gold market is experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, maintaining support levels, and showing signs of potential short-term rebounds [3] - Technical analysis indicates that after a period of narrow fluctuations, there may be some upward movement in gold prices, with key resistance levels to watch around $3384-5 [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current upward potential of gold trends, indicating that there is still a possibility for price increases despite recent fluctuations [1] - It highlights that the recent upward movement in gold prices has not been sustained, raising questions about the future trajectory of the market [1] - The live analysis by Richard focuses on key levels of gold prices, suggesting that viewers can gain insights into potential market movements [1]

Group 1 - The current trend of gold prices is upward, but the momentum appears to be lacking [1] - There is a discussion on how to interpret the alternating rise and fall in gold prices [1] - Richard is providing a live analysis to explain the situation [1]