2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，站在新旧年更替的此刻，也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，制约 居民消费的核心矛盾是什么？如何看待促消费政策从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变？"十五五"后，货 币政策还有哪些发力空间？后续黄金走势将如何演绎？围绕上述问题，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊近日 接受了北京商报记者的专访。 2026年提升消费率是主线索之一 北京商报：2025年，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优 化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期可 持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 郭磊：中央经济工作会议指出"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"，正是在这一判断基础上，政策进一步指出"必 须充分挖掘经济潜能"，消费作为需求端的主要组成部分，在政策框架中的位置自然是十分重要的。 2026年作为"十五五"首年，提升消费率毫无疑问是主线索之一。 政策侧重点可能会有所变化，这两年我们的"以旧换新"集中于耐用消费品，这一部分需求 ...

| 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4326.22 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 975.90 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 979.30 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 979.90 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)周四数据，美国11月CPI通胀降至2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普周三表示，下任美联储主席将是一位相信大幅降低利率的人。他进一步表示， 将很快宣布现任美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的继任者。 根据CME FedWatch工具，在美联储最近三次会议上每次降息25个基点后，金融市场目前仅定价26.6% 的概率，认为美联储将在1月下次会议上降息。 在本周末美国与俄罗斯官员会晤之前，美国总统特朗普表示，他相信结束俄乌冲突的谈判"正在接近某 种结果"。一位白宫官员说，特朗普特使威特科夫和库什纳计划于本周末在迈阿密会见一个俄罗斯代表 团，他们将继续努力促使俄乌双方达成协议，以结束冲突。分析师指出，如果周末谈判取得进展，下周 金价将面临大幅低开的可能性。 摘要北京时间周五(12月19日)欧洲 ...

来源：张扬超说 黄金很快将会突破历史前高，而一旦突破4380前高，那么短期下一站将会是4500，内盘黄金1000，然后是1010，当 然，这个价格也并非终点。 做趋势的朋友，你只需要在正确的方向里跟随并耐心持有即可！ 有人说四季度 的黄金不会有大单边行情，理由是今年黄金已经涨的太多了，现在价格太高了！但是我想说的是，回顾历年来的黄金 走势，每一次的历史性新高，都在不断刷新人的认知！ 近期黄金etf持续大手笔增持黄金，地缘危机跌宕起伏， 美联储年内连续三次降息之后，并且很快将会在未来几个月换任新的美联储主席，2026年的美联储政策或许比今年更 加鸽派！ 总之一句话，黄金的上涨周期还将会持续很长时间！ 大家应该记得我们最近一次上车的位置是在 902或者910附近，再之后就是我们反复强调的950以及945上车的，也就是4100，以及4200下方。所以，在正确的趋势 里做时间的朋友，你可以实现躺赢！ 而对于本周的黄金走势来讲，短期下方4280至4265是一个非常关键的防守 区域，也就是965附近，极限在960这样！短期如果有机会给到，仍然可以去考虑上车，但是这里上车的话就只能是短 线进行。 而之前在950下方以及91 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision indicates a potential for three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year, with one additional cut expected next year [2] - The newly appointed member, Milan, advocates for a total cut of 150 basis points this year and was the only one to vote against a 25 basis point cut, supporting a 50 basis point reduction instead [2] - Fed Chairman Powell describes the rate cut as a risk management decision, emphasizing that the current policy has been on the right track this year despite rising inflation and slowing job growth [4] Group 2 - Following the Fed's decision, gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to around 3650 before spiking to a historical high of 3707.5, then closing at approximately 3659 [4] - The market sentiment around gold is expected to adjust rather than reach a peak, with a mid-term expectation that gold will not fall below the 3500 USD mark [6] - Short-term analysis suggests that if gold prices break below the 3646 support level, they may decline further towards 3625 and 3262, while resistance is noted around the 3670-75 range [8]

Core Viewpoint - Weak non-farm payroll data may act as a catalyst for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on the US dollar while potentially supporting US stocks. Conversely, strong non-farm data could undermine rate cut expectations, leading to market volatility [1]. Summary by Categories Non-Farm Payroll Performance - Non-farm payroll additions below 75,000 are expected to strengthen the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a potential increase to 50 basis points [2]. - An unemployment rate above 4.3% would reinforce the expectation of a 25 basis point cut, while a rate below 4.3% would weaken this expectation [2]. - Year-over-year average hourly earnings growth below 3.7% would support the case for a 25 basis point cut, while stronger growth would diminish rate cut expectations [2]. Impact on the US Dollar - A weak non-farm report would lead to a bearish outlook for the US dollar, while a strong report would result in a bullish sentiment [2]. - The dollar is expected to resume a downward trend with weak data, while strong data may lead to a consolidation phase [2]. Impact on US Stocks - A weak non-farm report is likely to boost stock prices due to lowered rate expectations, while strong data may lead to a bearish outlook for stocks [4]. - The market reaction to a weak report could result in a slight increase in stock prices, while strong data may cause a decline [4]. Impact on Gold - Weak non-farm data is expected to drive gold prices higher, while strong data could lead to a bearish sentiment for gold [4]. - A weak report may push gold prices to new highs, while a strong report could result in a slight decrease in gold prices [4].

Group 1 - Since late April, the gold market has regained upward momentum, with COMEX gold prices surpassing $3640 per ounce and London gold nearing $3580 per ounce, marking historical highs and a year-to-date increase of over 30% [1] - Several gold stocks, including Western Gold, have seen significant price increases, with Western Gold's stock closing at a limit-up price of 26.51 yuan per share, marking three consecutive days of limit-up trading [1] - Western Gold reported a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 69.01%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94% year-on-year, driven by increased sales prices and volumes of gold products [1] Group 2 - A total of 10 listed gold companies in A-shares reported growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with Zhaojin Gold showing the largest increase, achieving a revenue of 196 million yuan and a net profit of 44.69 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 98.27% and 181.36% respectively [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar and bonds, leading to increased demand for gold [2][3] - The domestic gold ETF market has seen a significant increase in holdings, with a net inflow of 84.771 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 173.73%, and total assets exceeding 140 billion yuan, up over 92% since the beginning of the year [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The gold market has become a focal point for global investors, with spot gold prices trading around $3536.79 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 34.5% [1] - Spot gold prices recently surpassed the historical high of $3500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3539.88, driven by concerns over a weak U.S. economy, trade policy uncertainties, and global geopolitical risks [1] - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including July factory orders and JOLTs job openings, along with speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, are expected to significantly impact the gold market [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market is currently in a bullish trend, with the last wave of upward movement identified between the $3475-$3470 range, and key support and resistance levels at $3450 and $3500-$3508 respectively [2] - Investors are advised to focus on low long positions while being cautious with high short positions, paying close attention to critical support and resistance levels [2] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - The oil market is also under scrutiny, with Brent crude and WTI prices holding steady at $69.13 and $65.63 per barrel respectively, supported by sanctions and declining inventories [4] - Economic data weakness poses a risk to demand outlook, and future price movements will depend on OPEC+ policy decisions and the pace of global economic recovery [4] - Technical analysis indicates a downward subjective trend in the medium term for oil, while the short-term trend appears upward, with key support and resistance levels identified at $64.0-$63.0 and $67.0-$68.0 [4] Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The company emphasizes the importance of practical trading and advice over flashy rhetoric, advocating for sound risk management and good investment returns to enhance the investment experience for retail investors [4] - The company highlights the significance of having a knowledgeable mentor and technical team to guide investors, as external perspectives can lead to better decision-making [4][5] - Investors are reminded to prioritize safety and authority when selecting platforms and mentors, as well as to consider operational risks before focusing on profitability [5]

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 959.92 tons, with an increase of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day [5] - On August 26, spot gold surged, reaching a peak of $3393.67 per ounce, closing near this high at $3393.62, marking an increase of $28.02 or 0.83% [5] - The increase in gold ETF holdings marks the second consecutive day of growth, indicating a rising interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid market uncertainties [5] Group 2 - Recent comments from former President Trump regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, contributing to the rise in gold prices [6] - Analysts are focusing on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is expected to provide insights into the Fed's interest rate decisions [6] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for gold, with potential resistance levels at $3438 and $3450, while key support is identified at $3350 [6]

Group 1: Global Economic Impact of Tariffs - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% in 2023, significantly higher than the 2.4% in 2024, which may increase inflation and weaken corporate profitability [3] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes a slowdown in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and potential restructuring of global supply chains [3] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts by June 2024, amounting to 100 basis points [6][7] - High tariffs may hinder the Fed's ability to cut rates due to rising inflation and weakening corporate earnings [6] Group 3: Precious Metals and Investment Strategies - Gold prices are expected to rise, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by geopolitical risks and increased central bank gold reserves [8] - The market may see a correction in gold prices due to reduced uncertainty from tariff policies and a historical high price level [8] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - U.S. economic and stock market pressures may lead to a decline in trust in dollar assets, while European stocks may attract investment due to lower valuations [10] - A-shares and H-shares are expected to benefit from policy support and improved fundamentals, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology growth sectors [10] Group 5: Sector Focus in Chinese Market - The market is showing a "high-low" switching characteristic influenced by infrastructure policies and trade risks, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology sectors [13] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor and technology index stocks [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [22]. Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [11]. - The U.S. tariff policy is likely to slow global trade flows, reduce investment and consumption growth, and reshape global supply chains, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" and "multilateralization" of trade among non-U.S. economies [11]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged as long as the U.S. economy and labor market remain robust, with market expectations for rate cuts cooling down [14]. - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates four times by June next year, totaling 100 basis points [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to increase their allocation to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus plan [20]. - A focus on Chinese A-shares and H-shares is recommended, as they are likely to attract international capital inflows due to policy support and improving fundamentals [20]. Group 4: Sector Focus in China - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technology events [23]. - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is projected to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [23].