美国财政部的数据很直白，2025年Q3末，国库账户还有约6700亿美元现金，社保和医疗这类大项支出照旧——"我们都在看TGA余额，没跌破警戒线，没人 慌。"一位基金经理小吴边喝咖啡边说，"只要不闹到极端，大家都当作假期。" 不过有意思的细节在于，负责政府采购的某小公司老板发朋友圈：本月账期延后，现金流紧张，晚上请客吃饭都改约下月了。金融圈的分析师们倒是提前准 备了"剧本"：如果停摆拖过两周，预计GDP影响0.18%，但没人会真关心小数点后第二位——这像极了炒股APP里的"风险提示"，总有人跳出来提醒，但大 多数人滑着手机继续看短视频。 换个角度，2025年10月2日，美联储的逆回购数据还在刷屏，市场流动性像提前准备好的备用粮仓，没到断粮的地步。隔壁银行的理财顾问张姐私下说："客 户问我会不会爆雷，我说你看美国国债利率，没涨，别自己吓自己。"她边说边把客户微信拉入群，群名叫"稳健投资不焦虑"，气氛比网购砍价群还佛系。 2025年10月1日凌晨三点，华盛顿市中心的路灯还亮着，国会山前的雕像像往常一样冷漠地盯着夜色，街边有外卖员在等订单，手机屏幕反射着蓝光，有人 刷到新闻说政府又关门了，评论区一片吐槽——"这都第几 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the secondary market and ETF products from multiple perspectives. It presents the performance of major indexes and industries, and details the market performance, fund flows, trading volume, margin trading, and new issuance and listing of ETFs during the sample period from September 22 to September 26, 2025 [1][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Secondary Market Overview - **Index Performance**: During the sample period, the Science and Technology Innovation 50, SGE Gold 9999, and ChiNext Index ranked among the top in terms of weekly returns, with 6.47%, 3.32%, and 1.96% respectively. The PE valuation quantile of the S&P 500 was the highest at 99.20%, while that of the Nikkei 225 was the lowest at 85.66% [10]. - **Industry Performance**: In the sample period, the power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics industries ranked among the top in terms of returns, with 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51% respectively. The social services, comprehensive, and commercial retail industries ranked relatively low, with - 5.92%, - 4.61%, and - 4.32% respectively. In terms of valuation, the non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and electronics industries had the highest valuation quantiles, at 99.59%, 99.59%, and 98.36% respectively, while the non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and comprehensive industries had relatively low valuation quantiles, at 23.36%, 36.07%, and 42.42% respectively [14]. 2. ETF Product Overview 2.1 ETF Market Performance - **By Product Type**: Commodity ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of 3.19%, while style ETFs had the worst average performance, with a weighted average return of - 0.75% [18]. - **By Listing Plate**: ETFs related to the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 had better market performance, with weighted average returns of 5.81% and 4.32% respectively. The CSI 2000 and Hong Kong stock ETFs had relatively poor performance, with weighted average returns of - 1.14% and - 0.39% respectively [18]. - **By Industry Sector**: The technology sector ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of 3.29%, while the consumer sector ETFs had the worst average performance, with a weighted average return of - 2.81% [19]. - **By Theme**: Chip semiconductor and new energy ETFs had better performance, with weighted average returns of 8.94% and 4.53% respectively. Innovative drug and non - bank ETFs had relatively poor performance, with weighted average returns of - 1.62% and - 0.87% respectively [19]. 2.2 ETF Fund Inflows and Outflows - **By ETF Category**: Bond ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, reaching 780.27 billion yuan, while QDII ETFs had the smallest net inflow, at - 27.15 billion yuan [23]. - **By Tracking Index and Listing Plate**: ChiNext - related ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 5.49 billion yuan, while CSI 300 ETFs had the smallest net inflow, at - 38.82 billion yuan [23]. - **By Industry Sector**: Technology sector ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 168.58 billion yuan, while cyclical sector ETFs had the smallest net inflow, at - 16.01 billion yuan [25]. - **By Theme**: Chip semiconductor and robot ETFs had the largest net inflows of funds, at 100.50 billion yuan and 40.39 billion yuan respectively. New energy and central state - owned enterprise ETFs had the smallest net inflows, at - 9.15 billion yuan and - 5.19 billion yuan respectively [25]. 2.3 ETF Trading Volume - **By ETF Category**: QDII ETFs had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 0.86%, while bond ETFs had the largest decrease, at - 12.18% [28]. - **By Tracking Index and Listing Plate**: US stock ETFs had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 26.66%, while the CSI 1000 had the largest decrease, at - 26.70% [31]. - **By Industry Sector**: The technology sector had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 3.39%, while the biomedical sector had the largest decrease, at - 32.00% [34]. - **By Theme**: Non - bank and chip semiconductor ETFs had the largest average daily trading volumes in the past 5 days, at 185.49 billion yuan and 156.03 billion yuan respectively. Chip semiconductor and consumer electronics ETFs had the largest increases in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 23.15% and 12.23% respectively. Innovative drug and military industry ETFs had the largest decreases, at - 33.90% and - 24.21% respectively [36]. 2.4 ETF Margin Trading During the sample period, the net margin purchase of all stock - type ETFs was - 0.80 billion yuan, and the net short - selling was - 1.13 billion yuan. The E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF had the largest net margin purchase, and the GF CSI 1000 ETF had the largest net short - selling [42]. 2.5 ETF New Issuance and Listing During the sample period, 11 funds were established and 21 funds were listed [3][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the secondary market and ETF product situation from August 9th to September 12th, 2025, including index trends, ETF market performance, fund flows, trading volume, margin trading, and new fund launches [1][20] Summary by Directory 1. Secondary Market Overview - In the sample period, the weekly returns of the Science and Technology Innovation 50, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng Index ranked among the top, at 5.48%, 4.07%, and 3.82% respectively. The PE valuation quantile of the CSI 500 was the highest at 100.00%, and that of the Nikkei 225 was the lowest at 85.25% [10] - Among the Shenwan primary industries, electronics, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the highest returns, at 6.15%, 5.98%, and 4.81% respectively. The industries with relatively low returns were comprehensive, banking, and petroleum and petrochemicals, at -1.43%, -0.66%, and -0.41% respectively. The industries with the highest valuation quantiles were non-ferrous metals, real estate, and automobiles, at 100.00%, 100.00%, and 99.59% respectively. The industries with relatively low valuation quantiles were non-bank finance, household appliances, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, at 32.23%, 42.56%, and 46.69% respectively [16] 2. ETF Product Overview 2.1 ETF Market Performance - QDII ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of 2.92%. Bond ETFs had the worst average performance, with a weighted average return of -0.25% [20] - Among the ETFs classified by the listing sectors of the underlying indices and their constituent stocks, the ETFs related to the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Japanese stocks had better market performance, with weighted average returns of 5.46% and 3.92% respectively. The ETFs related to US stocks and the CSI 2000 had relatively poor performance, with weighted average returns of 0.73% and 1.46% respectively [20] - Among the industry sectors, technology sector ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of 6.08%. Biomedical sector ETFs had the worst average performance, with a weighted average return of -1.08% [21] - Among the themes, chip semiconductor and artificial intelligence ETFs had better performance, with weighted average returns of 7.68% and 6.13% respectively. Innovative drug and bank ETFs had relatively poor performance, with weighted average returns of -2.95% and -0.70% respectively [21] 2.2 ETF Fund Inflows and Outflows - From the perspective of different types of ETFs, industry-themed ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 328.62 billion yuan, while broad-based ETFs had the smallest net inflow, at -231.98 billion yuan [25] - From the perspective of the listing sectors of the underlying indices and their constituent stocks, Hong Kong stock ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 232.46 billion yuan, while ETFs related to the Science and Technology Innovation Board had the smallest net inflow, at -117.21 billion yuan [25] - From the perspective of industry sectors, financial and real estate sector ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 115.88 billion yuan, while technology sector ETFs had the smallest net inflow, at -62.35 billion yuan [26] - From the perspective of themes, non-bank and new energy ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 101.71 billion yuan and 78.60 billion yuan respectively. Chip semiconductor and artificial intelligence ETFs had the smallest net inflow, at -84.66 billion yuan and -28.26 billion yuan respectively [26] 2.3 ETF Trading Volume - From the perspective of different types of ETFs, commodity ETFs had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 22.52%, while broad-based ETFs had the largest decrease, at -13.77% [31] - From the perspective of the listing sectors of the underlying indices and their constituent stocks, Japanese stock ETFs had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 15.15%, while the CSI 500 had the largest decrease, at -27.66% [34] - From the perspective of industry sectors, biomedical sector ETFs had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 8.64%, while financial and real estate sector ETFs had the largest decrease, at -14.80% [37] - From the perspective of themes, non-bank and innovative drug ETFs had the largest average daily trading volume in the past five days, at 258.16 billion yuan and 141.33 billion yuan respectively. New energy and innovative drug ETFs had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 65.65% and 12.15% respectively. Military and chip semiconductor ETFs had the largest decrease in the average daily trading volume change rate, at -43.10% and -22.85% respectively [40] 2.4 ETF Margin Trading - In the sample period, the net margin purchase of all equity ETFs was -1.629 billion yuan, and the net short sale was 398 million yuan. Among all equity ETFs, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF had the largest net margin purchase, and the Southern CSI 1000 ETF had the largest net short sale [2][46] 2.5 ETF New Launches and Listings - In the sample period, a total of 8 funds were established and 4 funds were listed [3][48]

Core Insights - The report from Saxo Bank indicates that Bitcoin has reached a three-week high due to easing macroeconomic concerns and continued inflows into ETFs, boosting cryptocurrency sentiment [1] - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam has enhanced market optimism, with tariffs being lower than previously feared [1] - A weak ADP private employment report has increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, further supporting risk appetite [1] - Institutional demand for cryptocurrencies remains strong, driven by the rise of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF and the new iShares Ethereum ETF [1] Group 1 - Bitcoin has risen to a three-week high as ETF inflows increase and macroeconomic concerns ease [1] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement has contributed to a more optimistic market outlook [1] - The weak ADP employment report has bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, enhancing risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is strong, highlighted by the performance of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF and the new iShares Ethereum ETF [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF fund flow situation at the beginning of Trump's second term in 2025 is showing similarities to the first term, with significant inflows but a notable decline in investor preference for stocks compared to 2017 [2][5]. Group 1: ETF Fund Flow Trends - As of March 7, 2025, ETF fund inflows have reached $200 billion, marking a record high for the year [2]. - In 2017, the initial fund inflow was $101 billion, indicating a strong start for that year as well [2]. - Despite the overall market asset growth, the preference for stocks has decreased, with only 56% of investors favoring stocks in 2025 compared to 73% in 2017 [2]. Group 2: Performance of Top ETFs - The top 100 ETFs from 2017 are experiencing mixed results in 2025, with only half showing an increase [5]. - The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which rose by 87% in 2017, has seen a decline of 15% in 2025 [5]. Group 3: Investor Risk Appetite - In early 2025, investors displayed a stronger risk appetite, with a record difference in fund flows between high Beta and low Beta ETFs [6]. - The S&P 500 index has experienced 14 days with declines exceeding 1% in the past 100 days, a significant increase compared to the previous year [6]. - In contrast to Trump's first term, where the S&P 500 did not experience any single-day declines over 1%, the current market shows a higher volatility [6].