Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, is betting that the cryptocurrency industry will become a key buyer of U.S. government debt in the coming years, as Washington seeks support for a massive increase in government debt [2] - Yellen has indicated that stablecoins are expected to become an important source of demand for U.S. government bonds, and discussions with major stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle have taken place [2][3] - The recent passage of the "Genius Act" establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring them to be backed by a limited number of highly secure and liquid assets, including short-term Treasury bills [2][3] Group 2 - The stablecoin market is valued at approximately $250 billion, which is small compared to the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, but Yellen expects the stablecoin market to grow to $2 trillion in the coming years [3] - The Treasury Department is closely monitoring structural market developments and will continue to reference various opinions in its issuance plans, including feedback from investors and primary dealers [3][4] - Increased communication frequency between the Treasury and financial industry participants has been noted, with Treasury officials expressing more concerns about U.S. government debt demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins reflects the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency rather than being a driving factor for increased demand for US Treasury bonds in the short term [1][2][5] Group 1: Stablecoin Growth and US Treasury Demand - Citigroup's report indicates that the growth of stablecoins will not significantly boost the demand for US Treasuries in the short term [1][5] - The demand for US Treasuries may actually decrease due to the diversion of funds from bank deposits and money market funds to stablecoins [5][8] - If stablecoins begin to offer interest, it could lead to larger growth but may also divert funds from existing holders [5][8] Group 2: Sources of Stablecoin Growth - The source of stablecoin growth is crucial; if it comes from the transfer of funds from money market funds or other US Treasury holding instruments, it does not constitute net new demand for Treasuries [5][8] - Citigroup estimates that the potential long-term size of the stablecoin market could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, with only a portion contributing to net new Treasury demand [8] Group 3: Dollar Dominance and De-dollarization Trends - Citigroup believes that the dominance of the US dollar as a reserve currency will continue, independent of stablecoin developments [9] - The euro is seen as the only potential long-term competitor to the dollar, but the dollar is expected to maintain its dominant position until at least 2070 [9] - The relative issuance trends of non-US stablecoins will serve as an interesting indicator of changes in the dollar's dominant status [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that legislation on stablecoins may be completed by mid-July, which could create a new source of demand for U.S. Treasury securities [1] Group 1 - The potential completion of stablecoin legislation is expected to influence the demand dynamics for U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The introduction of stablecoins could provide an alternative investment vehicle, thereby impacting the overall market for government securities [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：将观望评级下调对美国国债需求的影响。 ...