关税因素导致前两月赶港 以美国西海岸第三大集装箱港奥克兰港为例，其9月进口空箱同比下降12.8%，出口重箱下降3.5%。 10月末，有关美国集装箱吞吐量数据陆续出炉，数据显示美国9月份集装箱进口量继续同比下跌。 来自供应链技术和数据提供商笛卡尔（Descartes）的数据显示，受到特朗普政府全球关税政策影响，美国9月份集装箱货物进口量同比下降8.4%，降至230.8 个20英尺标准箱（TEU），此次下降是近年来月度最大跌幅。 来自行业重要报告《麦考恩美国10大港口报告》的数据也显示，9月，美国10大港口进口集装箱吞吐量同比下降6.6%，与前几个月的趋势截然相反，该报告 作者行业分析师约麦考恩（JohnMcCown）预测，"持续且更为显著"的下滑趋势将持续到2026年。 笛卡尔方面将9月的进口量下降归因于季节性需求疲软和关税相关谨慎情绪的双重影响。 第一财经记者采访的贸易专家、航运业专业人士也认为，关税因素导致的动荡和美国国内需求疲软构成了美国港口当前吞吐量不旺的主因。 道岳法律咨询反倾销财务专家严光普对第一财经记者表示，从目前广大的外贸商反馈来看，除了关税因素之外，通胀的确导致美国国内需求下降，简而言之 就是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP data may appear strong on the surface but is likely misleading, driven by a reduction in trade deficits while core areas like consumer spending and business investment show signs of weakness [1][2]. Economic Growth and GDP - UBS predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6%, a significant rebound from Q1's contraction of 0.5%, primarily driven by net exports contributing up to 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth [2][5]. - The sharp decline in imports, expected to drop over 25% annually, has reversed the negative impact of net exports from Q1, which had reduced GDP by 4.6 percentage points [2][5]. - Domestic demand and real personal consumption growth have slowed from 2.5%-3% over the past two years to approximately 1.1% in the first half of this year [2]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence remains fragile, with the World Federation of Large Enterprises' index rising only 2.0 points to 97.2 in July, still significantly below the 2024 average of 104.5 [7]. - The labor market's perception of job availability has declined, indicating potential challenges for consumer spending moving forward [7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings decreasing by 275,000 in June to 7.44 million, and the job vacancy rate falling to 4.4% [8]. - The hiring rate has dropped to 3.3%, nearing the low point of the current expansion cycle, suggesting a slowdown in labor market activity [8]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy faces structural challenges, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the "Big Beautiful" Act will increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with only a 0.5% average boost to inflation-adjusted GDP [10].