Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US labor market and economic outlook, particularly in relation to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Softening**: The US labor market has shown signs of softening, with weak employment reports for July and August and a significant negative benchmark revision. Job growth is now estimated at just 25,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [3][6][11]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points in the last two months, reaching 4.3%. A broader measure of labor market slack indicates further softening [7][9]. - **GDP Growth Expectations**: GDP is expected to grow at a below-potential pace in the second half of 2025, with a forecasted unemployment rate of 4.5%. A rebound towards potential growth is anticipated in 2026 as tariff effects diminish and fiscal measures provide support [11][24]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is viewed as a two-part story, with a moderate tariff effect and an underlying trend expected to decrease towards the target. Core inflation is projected to modestly increase to 3.2% by December [14][15]. - **FOMC Rate Cuts**: The FOMC is expected to implement three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with potential for a 50 basis point cut if labor market conditions worsen more rapidly than anticipated [4][33]. Additional Important Details - **Future Rate Projections**: The median dot plot is expected to show two cuts in 2025 to a rate of 3.875%, with further cuts projected in subsequent years [28][29]. - **Economic Projections**: The FOMC's economic projections from June are likely to remain largely unchanged, with GDP growth at 1.4%, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and core PCE inflation at 3.1% for 2025 [24][26]. - **Market Reactions**: The FOMC's acknowledgment of labor market softening in its statement may signal to investors the likelihood of further cuts, as historical patterns suggest consecutive cuts are often implemented to address immediate economic issues [18][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC preview, highlighting the current state of the US labor market, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and anticipated monetary policy actions.

Group 1 - The annualized GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the second quarter is reported at 3%, a significant recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, primarily driven by net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP [1] - Following the GDP report, spot gold prices fell below $3320 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index rose over 10 points, and the euro dropped below 1.15 against the dollar [2] - Economists express concerns about the underlying economic conditions, noting that the overall GDP change does not reflect the true state of the economy, as growth was heavily influenced by volatile factors such as inventory and trade [2] Group 2 - Economists predict weak economic growth in the second half of the year, despite recent trade agreements announced by the White House, as the actual tariff rates remain among the highest since the 1930s [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting, with indicators showing a cooling labor market and only slight economic growth in several districts [3] - The U.S. may have passed the worst phase of the trade war, with recent agreements potentially easing some tariff burdens, but a full economic recovery will take time due to the high tariff environment affecting consumer and business confidence [3]

Core Insights - Wells Fargo has raised its S&P 500 index target range for the end of 2025 to 6300-6500, up from the previous forecast of 5900-6100 [1] - The forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 has been increased from 1% to 1.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP data may appear strong on the surface but is likely misleading, driven by a reduction in trade deficits while core areas like consumer spending and business investment show signs of weakness [1][2]. Economic Growth and GDP - UBS predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6%, a significant rebound from Q1's contraction of 0.5%, primarily driven by net exports contributing up to 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth [2][5]. - The sharp decline in imports, expected to drop over 25% annually, has reversed the negative impact of net exports from Q1, which had reduced GDP by 4.6 percentage points [2][5]. - Domestic demand and real personal consumption growth have slowed from 2.5%-3% over the past two years to approximately 1.1% in the first half of this year [2]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence remains fragile, with the World Federation of Large Enterprises' index rising only 2.0 points to 97.2 in July, still significantly below the 2024 average of 104.5 [7]. - The labor market's perception of job availability has declined, indicating potential challenges for consumer spending moving forward [7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings decreasing by 275,000 in June to 7.44 million, and the job vacancy rate falling to 4.4% [8]. - The hiring rate has dropped to 3.3%, nearing the low point of the current expansion cycle, suggesting a slowdown in labor market activity [8]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy faces structural challenges, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the "Big Beautiful" Act will increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with only a 0.5% average boost to inflation-adjusted GDP [10].

Group 1 - Economists have revised their outlook for the U.S. economy, expecting stronger growth and job creation, with a lower risk of recession and milder inflation compared to three months ago [1][2] - The average forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in Q4 is now 1%, up from 0.8% in April, but still half of the January expectation [1][2] - The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased to 33% from 45% in April, but is higher than the 22% in January [1][2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown resilience, with average job growth of 150,000 over the past three months and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [2][3] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-over-year in May, the lowest in four years, although still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - Economists expect that Trump's tariff policies will contribute 0.7 percentage points to inflation by Q4 2025, despite a lower average inflation forecast of 3% for December compared to 3.6% in April [3][4] Group 3 - The labor market outlook has improved since April, with an expected average monthly job increase of 74,070, up from 54,619 in April [4] - Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by December, down from the previous forecast of 4.7% [4] - The impact of immigration policy changes is expected to offset economic growth contributions from Trump's policies, with a reduction of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, anticipates that artificial intelligence (AI) spending may accelerate U.S. GDP growth within the next 12 to 24 months [1] Group 1 - AI spending is expected to significantly contribute to economic growth in the U.S. [1]

美国第一季度GDP季调后环比折年率初值为-0.3%，创2022年第二季度以来新低，预估为-0.2%，前值为2.4%。 此外，美国4月ADP就业人数增加6.2万人，为2024年7月以来最小增幅，大幅低于预期，预估为增加11.5万人，前值为增加15.5万人。 ...