特朗普对美元主导地位的根本基础的侵蚀，可能是一个非常缓慢、长期的过程，但它仍然让参与者感到 沉重。 2025年末，美元指数即将录得2017年以来最大的年度跌幅。 结合衍生品市场情况，市场预计，明年伴随美联储继续降息、特朗普干预美联储等因素，美元还将继续 走弱。 8年来最差年度走势 美联储明年将再次降息，而包括欧洲央行在内的其他主要央行将保持利率水平不变，甚至加息。荷兰国 际集团（ING）首席国际经济学家奈特利（James Knightley）表示，"就全球央行而言，美联储正在逆势 而行 ，它仍处于宽松状态。如此的货币政策前景分化，将推动美元继续走低。" 交易员预计，到2026年底，美联储将降息两到三个25个基点。相比之下，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉 加德本月表示，"所有选择都应该摆在桌面上"，因为央行保持利率不变，但提高了增长和通胀预测。华 尔街投行们预计，到2026年底，欧元将走强至1.20美元，英镑将从目前的1.33美元升至1.36美元。 由于美元仍然是世界主导货币之一，美元疲软表现对企业、投资者和全球央行都有影响。比如，美元今 年的疲软对美国出口商来说是一个利好，但对许多在美国销售的欧洲企业来说是一种拖 ...

Core Insights - The "Big Beautiful" bill is projected to add up to $2.8 trillion in deficits over the next decade, but its short-term economic stimulus effect is minimal, with only a 0.2 percentage point increase in growth expected by 2026, turning negative by 2028 [2][16] - The bill features a "discriminatory tax" clause (Section 899) that introduces significant uncertainty for foreign investors holding U.S. assets, potentially increasing their investment costs [7][17] - Morgan Stanley is bearish on the U.S. dollar, predicting a 4-5% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2025, as the era of U.S. economic exceptionalism comes to an end and capital inflows face risks [7][29][31] Fiscal Impact - The bill's deficit growth is front-loaded, with two-thirds of the total deficit occurring between 2025 and 2029 [6] - Additional tax relief measures are concentrated in the early years and will expire by 2028 [10] - Spending cuts will not begin until 2027, with Medicaid cuts peaking only in 2032 [13] Debt Market Implications - The combined effects of tariff revenues and spending cuts have led to a reduction in deficit expectations, alleviating concerns about oversupply in the U.S. Treasury market [18] - The U.S. Treasury has significant flexibility in financing, relying on short-term bills due to low issuance levels and high demand for short-term debt [23] - Risks remain regarding foreign investor behavior, particularly the impact of Section 899 on different maturities of U.S. Treasuries [26] Investment Environment - The investment climate in the U.S. is facing deterioration risks, with the dollar expected to weaken [29] - The end of U.S. economic exceptionalism suggests that future growth will align more closely with the rest of the world, complicating financing for large deficits [29] - The reliance on foreign capital to cover the current account deficit is significant, with portfolio inflows projected to exceed the deficit by 125% in 2024, making the implications of Section 899 particularly concerning for European investors [31][33]