Group 1 - The July FOMC meeting lacked suspense regarding interest rate cuts, as recent inflation and employment data indicated a strong likelihood of maintaining rates, with a consensus among Fed officials leaning towards a wait-and-see approach [1][4] - The meeting revealed significant internal divisions within the Fed, with two members voting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, highlighting concerns over economic slowdown and political pressures [4][5] - Powell's remarks indicated a shift in focus towards labor market performance, acknowledging a slowdown while emphasizing the need to monitor unemployment and wage growth as indicators of potential risks [5][6] Group 2 - The Fed's decision-making process has been simplified by the recent trade agreements, which have clarified the target tariff ranges, allowing for better assessment of inflationary pressures [12][19] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has decreased, but the overall tariff rates remain higher than before Trump's administration, which may still impact inflation transmission over time [12][17] - The upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment, will be crucial for the Fed's decisions in the September meeting, with expectations of moderate inflation growth [17][19]

民生证券：鲍威尔展示了既"鹰"又"鸽"的一面 金十数据7月31日讯，民生证券研报称，7月议息会议是一次重要的尝试。鲍威尔展示了既"鹰"又"鸽"的 一面，"鹰"在于对于降息仍不松口，对于压力也不低头；"鸽"在于美联储政策转向的门槛降低了——未 来两个月（9月议息会议前）的数据若不佳，也能成为降息的理由，而这在之前几年是不够的。不过从 目前看，市场更看重"鹰"派的一面，隔夜美元指数大涨一度接近100；但值得注意的是让预期反转，可 能只需要一次不及预期的非农数据。展望未来，如何客观评估后续的美国宏观基本面，对于联储和市场 都至关重要。对于9月FOMC，我们和市场观点一致，降息是基准情形。 美元指数 ...