Core Viewpoint - The current liquidity level in the US remains healthy, but the focus should shift to the effectiveness of monetary policy stimulus, particularly the transmission of interest rate cuts to long-term rates, which is crucial for the recovery of the real economy [2][4][22] Group 1: Liquidity Status - Following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, there has been no large-scale financial risk exposure in the US, and the stock market has recovered and reached new highs [4] - The US liquidity stock level is healthy, with concerns not stemming from insufficient liquidity but from potential mismatches and increased risk exposure due to further liquidity injections [4][11] - The current excess reserves in the US are approximately $900 billion, significantly higher than the $80 billion level during the 2019 repo market crisis [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating the real economy is under scrutiny, as the transmission to long-term rates remains weak, limiting recovery in sectors like manufacturing and real estate [22] - The average duration of assets on bank balance sheets is increasing, raising concerns about interest rate sensitivity and liquidity risks [22][18] - The low supply of non-bond assets, such as commercial loans and residential mortgages, has led banks to allocate more to bond assets, further increasing average duration and interest rate risk [18] Group 3: Structural Changes in Financial System - The proportion of US Treasury securities in banks' loanable assets has increased by nearly 8 percentage points to 53%, primarily due to an increase in held-to-maturity assets [13] - The overall losses in the US banking sector amount to $410 billion, with approximately $260 billion stemming from held-to-maturity assets, which limits banks' credit supply capabilities [17] - The distribution of reserves has become more even, with the largest banks bearing the brunt of the Fed's balance sheet reduction, indicating a more resilient financial system [8][10]

宏观经济点评报告 宏观经济组 分析师:宋雪涛(执业 S1130525030001) songxuetao@gjzq.com.cn 美国流动性新解: 宽货币，弱信用，促泡沫 基本内容 硅谷银行危机至今,美国再无大规模的金融风险暴露。尤其是４月初解放日１.0 的冲击后,美股不仅收复全部失地, 还屡创新高;彼时快速跳升的国债利率和走廊的美元货币互换基差引发的流动性担忧已烟消云散。这背后固然有TACO 和 FOMO 等交易层面的情绪驱动,但美元流动性的充裕是这一切背后的核心支撑。 随着联储进入缩表末期,流动性的走势变得越发重要;叠加约5000 亿美元的 TGA 回补需求,近期市场对流动性的担 忧也越发增加。 我们认为美国流动性存量水平依然健康。风险并不来自于流动性不足，而来自于流动性进一步补充之后，(被迫) 脱 实向虚带来的更大幅度错配,以及更大风险敞口的暴露。 硅谷银行危机至今,美国再无大规模的金融风险暴露。尤其是４月初解放日1.0的冲击后,美股不仅收复全部失地. 还屡创新高;彼时快速跳升的国债利率和走廓的美元货币互换基差引发的流动性担忧已烟消云散。这背后固然有 TACO 和 FOMO 等交易层面的情绪驱动,但美元 ...

基本内容 硅谷银行危机至今，美国再无大规模的金融风险暴露。尤其是 4 月初解放日 1.0 的冲击后，美股不仅收复全部失地， 还屡创新高；彼时快速跳升的国债利率和走廓的美元货币互换基差引发的流动性担忧已烟消云散。这背后固然有 TACO 和 FOMO 等交易层面的情绪驱动，但美元流动性的充裕是这一切背后的核心支撑。 随着联储进入缩表末期，流动性的走势变得越发重要；叠加约 5000 亿美元的 TGA 回补需求，近期市场对流动性的担 忧也越发增加。 我们认为美国流动性存量水平依然健康，风险并不来自于流动性不足，而来自于流动性进一步补充之后，（被迫）脱 实向虚带来的更大幅度错配，以及更大风险敞口的暴露。 基于此，现在更应关注的是信用创造效率的问题：如果降息依然难以传导到长端利率，美国将面临一个流动性充裕， 但信用需求不足的宏观组合。这将加剧银行系统的资产负债表长久期化趋势，进一步推升资产价格泡沫化水平；两者 都将放大资产对利率的敏感程度、同时积聚更大的流动性风险。 风险提示 1）特朗普的政策不确定性加大，带来金融市场更明显的动荡和海外资金更快逃离美元。2）全球经济在关税越发明确 的情况下受到更大影响，下半年全球同步宽松 ...