Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised its gold price forecast upwards, expecting prices to reach new highs due to deteriorating U.S. economic outlook and rising inflation concerns, with a target price increase from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce [1][3]. Economic Outlook and Inflation Concerns - The report indicates that the worsening U.S. economic outlook and inflation fears will drive gold prices to historical highs, contrasting sharply with previous bearish predictions [3][4]. - The anticipated economic growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are expected to persist into the second half of 2025, contributing to a moderate increase in gold prices [3][4]. Employment Data and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed weak performance, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below expectations, leading to renewed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with an 81% probability [3][4]. Geopolitical Risks and Tariff Policies - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The recent imposition of high tariffs by the Trump administration on multiple trade partners has also been a significant factor in Citigroup's upward revision of gold price expectations [5][10]. Strong Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over one-third, with prices expected to nearly double by the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong investment demand, moderate central bank purchases, and resilient jewelry demand despite rising prices [6]. - Gold typically performs well during periods of political and economic uncertainty and becomes more attractive in low-interest-rate environments, which is expected to be the case as Fed rate cut expectations rise [6]. Market Price Update - As of Monday's Asian trading session, the spot gold price was recorded at $3,356.37 per ounce [7]. Shift in Predictions - Citigroup's latest forecast represents a stark contrast to its previous outlook, which anticipated gold prices would fall below $3,000 in the coming quarters due to improving global growth confidence and a shift in U.S. trade policy [10]. - The rapid adjustment in Citigroup's stance reflects the swift changes in the global macroeconomic environment and a reassessment of inflation risks and economic uncertainties [10].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup predicts that U.S. economic growth and inflation concerns related to tariffs will continue to escalate in the second half of 2025, alongside a weakening dollar, driving gold prices moderately higher to reach historical highs [2] Group 1: Economic Factors - In the second quarter of 2025, weak U.S. employment data will raise concerns about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical data [2] - Geopolitical risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also expected to rise [2] Group 2: Gold Demand and Price Projections - Gold demand has increased by over one-third since mid-2022, with prices projected to nearly double by the second quarter of 2025 [2] - Strong investment demand, moderate central bank purchases, and robust jewelry demand despite rising gold prices are driving the strong demand for gold [2]