Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised its gold price forecast upwards, expecting prices to reach new highs due to deteriorating U.S. economic outlook and rising inflation concerns, with a target price increase from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce [1][3]. Economic Outlook and Inflation Concerns - The report indicates that the worsening U.S. economic outlook and inflation fears will drive gold prices to historical highs, contrasting sharply with previous bearish predictions [3][4]. - The anticipated economic growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are expected to persist into the second half of 2025, contributing to a moderate increase in gold prices [3][4]. Employment Data and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed weak performance, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below expectations, leading to renewed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with an 81% probability [3][4]. Geopolitical Risks and Tariff Policies - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The recent imposition of high tariffs by the Trump administration on multiple trade partners has also been a significant factor in Citigroup's upward revision of gold price expectations [5][10]. Strong Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over one-third, with prices expected to nearly double by the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong investment demand, moderate central bank purchases, and resilient jewelry demand despite rising prices [6]. - Gold typically performs well during periods of political and economic uncertainty and becomes more attractive in low-interest-rate environments, which is expected to be the case as Fed rate cut expectations rise [6]. Market Price Update - As of Monday's Asian trading session, the spot gold price was recorded at $3,356.37 per ounce [7]. Shift in Predictions - Citigroup's latest forecast represents a stark contrast to its previous outlook, which anticipated gold prices would fall below $3,000 in the coming quarters due to improving global growth confidence and a shift in U.S. trade policy [10]. - The rapid adjustment in Citigroup's stance reflects the swift changes in the global macroeconomic environment and a reassessment of inflation risks and economic uncertainties [10].

花旗还强调，2025年第二季度美国就业数据走弱，对美联储和美国统计数据的机构可信度担忧加剧，以 及与俄乌冲突相关的地缘政治风险上升。 该行表示："美国经济增长和与关税相关的通胀担忧将在2025年下半年继续加剧，加上美元走软，将推 动金价适度走高，达到历史新高。" 该行补充称，黄金需求强劲是受强劲的投资需求、温和的央行买入，以及尽管金价上涨，但珠宝需求依 然强劲等因素推动的。 传统上被视为政治和经济不确定时期避险资产的黄金，往往在低利率环境下走势强劲。 花旗估计，自2022年年中以来，黄金总需求已增长逾三分之一，到2025年第二季度，金价上涨了近一 倍。 ...