全球最大稳定币发行商Tether推出黄金新计量单位，试图促进黄金在支付领域的应用。 周二，Tether发表博文宣布推出Scudo一词，这是Tether"黄金稳定币"XAUT的一种新计量单位，旨在让黄金重新成为人人都能使用的支付 手段。 根据Tether的定义，一个Scudo等于千分之一金衡盎司黄金，也相当于该公司发行的黄金支持代币XAUT的千分之一。按当前价格计算，一 个Scudo价值约4.48美元。 Tether表示，全球范围内持续的通胀担忧、利率不确定性、央行创纪录的黄金购买量以及避险资产需求增长，这为恢复黄金作为人类历史 上普遍存在、值得信赖且透明的支付方式创造了机会。 据CoinGecko数据显示，Tether的XAUT代币市值已达23亿美元，过去一年增长近三倍。公司宣称实际持有的黄金总量远超其代币价值，截 至2025年第三季度末，Tether持有116吨黄金，按周二价格计算价值近170亿美元。 黄金再次证明了它与比特币并驾齐驱，成为终极价值储存手段。XAUT将黄金数字化，而现在通过Scudo，我们降低了准入门 槛，让任何人都能拥有、轻松定价和交易哪怕是世界上最值得信赖的资产的一小部分。 Tether ...

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have reached record highs due to geopolitical concerns and inflation worries stemming from the tariff war [1] - Gold's price peaked at $4,549 per ounce and silver at $83.62, prompting higher projections from market analysts [1] Market Trends - Historically, surges in gold and silver prices indicate the beginning of a new market cycle rather than the end of an existing one [2] - The current rally in precious metals is compared to the market behavior observed in mid-2020, where monetary easing led to increased liquidity and a flow of capital into safe-haven assets [3] Investment Behavior - Gold is viewed as a hedge against U.S. dollar devaluation, reacting more swiftly than stocks, while silver has both monetary and industrial value, typically following gold's price movements [4] - Following the March 2020 market crash, gold rose from $1,450 to $2,075 per ounce, and silver increased from $12 to $29 as the Federal Reserve injected liquidity [5] Capital Rotation - The initial rally in precious metals did not immediately trigger a rise in risk assets like Bitcoin, which remained in the $9,000-$12,000 range until after precious metals peaked [6] - This capital rotation signifies a shift from fear-driven positioning to growth-driven investment, reflecting similarities to the market cycle of 2020 [7]

12月16日，昨日黄金走了一个震荡行情，亚盘开盘震荡上扬，欧盘刷新日内高点至4349美元一线，不过 美盘开始回落，完全吐出日内涨幅。最低是到了4285美元一线。后续有所企稳，最终金价是收盘于4304 美元，日线收于5连阳。 反之，若数据强劲（新增就业远超预期）：可能暂时缓解对经济衰退的担忧，但会推高市场对通胀和利 率的警惕，增加美联储内部鹰派的筹码。金价可能因此承压，转而向下寻求关键支撑。 从技术上来看，结合日线以及小时图结构，以及对今晚非农数据的不确定性规避，日内黄金暂时维持看 居高震荡，上方继续还是先关注4320-30一带争夺，此位是上周五跌破口，昨日行情也在此有反复，所 以今日也可能会继续展现其压制作用。下方则着重关注5日线4285附近支撑测试，此位也是昨日回撤的 低点位置，如果今晚非农数据促成利空，那么此位跌破可能性大增，下方或可再看上周五回撤低点4260 甚至10日线4240附近回撤。 总之，在今晚非农数据公布前，市场料将维持谨慎的高位震荡格局，波动率可能暂时收敛，但这是暴风 雨前的宁静。数据的结果将直接裁决"衰退交易"和"通胀担忧"谁将主导市场情绪，从而决定金价是向上 破位创出历史新高，还是向下展 ...

长期美国国债下跌，30年期收益率升至自9月初以来最高水平，本周美联储降息后货币政策立场逐步反 映至债市中。30年期收益率一度上涨6个基点至4.86%，创9月5日以来最高水平，本周累计上涨约5个基 点。两年期国债收益率基本持平，较前周略微下跌。 ...

周三，美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中强调劳动力市场风险，同时淡化通胀担忧，美元录得近三个月来的最 差表现。美元指数收盘下跌0.4%，创9月16日以来最大跌幅，此前美联储决定降息0.25个百分点。美国 银行策略师亚历克斯·科恩表示："与此前的预测相比，鲍威尔对劳动力市场的态度不那么乐观。"他补 充说，美联储主席在劳动力和通胀方面的评论引发了美元下跌。宏观策略师爱德华·哈里森表示："随着 美联储与日益鹰派的各国央行步调不一致，疲软的美元应从债券和利率差方向获得指引。" ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's inauguration has brought extreme global turmoil, shifting inflation expectations to recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, along with liquidity concerns, still provide upward momentum for gold prices, but the momentum is limited [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Due to concerns about tariffs, silver prices are more likely to see an expanded increase. However, the actual shortage may be limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [12]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Due to strong demand for Japanese bond auctions and the stabilization of the cryptocurrency market, liquidity concerns eased, and gold prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.3. The basis was - 5.21, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 90,873 kilograms [4]. - Silver: With the easing of liquidity concerns and the cooling of the supply - shortage game, silver prices fluctuated significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce. The basis was + 2, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 20,930 kilograms to 594,632 kilograms [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Today, focus on the US November ADP employment figures, PMI data from China, the US, and the EU, and speeches by the ECB president and officials. Trump's hint at the Fed chairmanship and other factors have stabilized risk appetite, causing gold prices to fall slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 4.7 yuan per gram, showing cautious sentiment in the domestic market [4]. - Silver: The spot - futures structure of Shanghai silver is gradually being repaired, and the supply - shortage game has cooled. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 420 yuan per gram, indicating strong domestic sentiment. Although there is still upward momentum for silver prices, investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:00: Fed Chair Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone November CPI preliminary value and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory supervision - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position has decreased [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.07% to 175,022, the short position decreased by 1.70% to 60,292, and the net long position increased by 0.81% to 114,730 [30]. - Silver: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.24% to 394,144, the short position decreased by 3.60% to 303,086, and the net long position decreased by 6.31% to 91,058 [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position has been increasing in a fluctuating manner [34]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [37]. - Gold Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly, while COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level [38][39]. - Silver Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [41].

Market Overview - Gold experienced significant volatility, with fluctuations around the $4100 mark, ultimately dipping below $4000 [1][12] - The market saw a rapid rise and fall, with a notable $70 range of movement, indicating high trading activity [1] Recent Influences - The Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy and unexpected stimulus measures led to a sharp decline in the yen and a strengthening dollar, contributing to gold's price drop [13] - The delayed release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data and rising unemployment rates created mixed signals in the market, further complicating gold's performance [13][15] Upcoming Indicators - The upcoming U.S. November PMI is anticipated to provide insights into the strength of the U.S. economy, which could impact stock and bond markets, as well as the dollar and gold prices [14] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing policy discussions and mixed signals regarding inflation and labor market conditions are expected to create further market uncertainty [14][16] Trading Strategy - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring key resistance levels at $4110 and $4064 for potential short positions, while looking for long opportunities around $1965 and $4000 [12] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of entry and exit points in trading, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit potential [14]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on November 14 was quoted at 958.80 yuan per gram, showing a premium of 5.6 yuan per gram over the futures main price of 953.20 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, shifting market focus to key economic data, with inflation concerns and differing views among Federal Reserve officials leading to reduced interest rate cut expectations [1] - China's manufacturing sector showed a decline in October, with exports falling more than expected, contributing to a slowdown in domestic economic growth, although October inflation data exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures reported that the precious metals market saw overall gains, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing at 956.96 yuan per gram, up 0.11%, while the main silver contract rose to 12,405 yuan per kilogram, up 0.40% [2] - The reopening of the U.S. government led to market sell-offs, and several Federal Reserve officials reiterated hawkish signals, putting short-term pressure on precious metals [2] - The current outlook for precious metals remains strong in the medium to long term, with recommendations for cautious short-term buying and opportunistic long-term purchases [2]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline on Thursday, with the three major indices recording their largest single-day drop in over a month, primarily driven by a downturn in AI leaders [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 797.6 points, closing at 47,457.22, a drop of 1.65%; the S&P 500 decreased by 1.66% to 6,737.49; and the Nasdaq Composite plummeted by 2.29% to 22,870.36 [2] Technology Sector - All seven major tech companies faced pressure, with Microsoft down 1.54%, Amazon down 2.71%, Apple down 0.19%, Tesla down 6.64%, Nvidia down 3.58%, and Google A down 2.84%; only Meta saw a slight increase of 0.14% [2] - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors declined, with the consumer discretionary sector leading the drop at 2.73% and the information technology sector falling by 2.37% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also faced challenges, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.59%; Baidu dropped over 6%, Bilibili fell nearly 5%, and both Xpeng Motors and NIO declined by over 3% [2] Economic Indicators - The US government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, but the overall economic sentiment remains weak due to the disruption of key economic data releases [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have decreased to approximately 47%, down from 70% the previous week, reflecting uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [3] Company-Specific Developments - Cisco saw a rise of 4.6% after raising its full-year revenue and profit forecasts, benefiting from sustained demand for networking equipment [3] - Disney experienced a sharp decline of 7.8% as the company warned that its distribution dispute with YouTube TV could become prolonged, raising concerns about further pressures on its traditional television business [3]

Group 1 - The core driving force behind the recent increase in gold prices is the rising expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, fueled by weak U.S. employment and consumer confidence data [1] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, provide solid support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The combination of favorable factors has led to strong buying interest in gold, resulting in a continuous price increase [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is showing a strong upward trend, with daily charts indicating a bullish candlestick pattern and a bullish MACD crossover, suggesting that bulls are in control [3] - The recent end of a 40-day U.S. government shutdown has led to the upcoming release of key economic data, which may cause significant market volatility and provide new guidance for Federal Reserve policy [3] - Discussions around potential U.S. fiscal stimulus may heighten inflation concerns, further emphasizing gold's hedging value [3] Group 3 - A trading strategy is suggested to buy on dips within the price range of 4126-4120, with a stop loss of 10 USD and a target of 4160-4180 [4]