By Mike Dolan What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets As U.S. markets mull the lengthening government shutdown, the week started with political drama in Japan and France - with the yen and euro falling sharply against the dollar and both gold and the euro/yen exchange rate vaulting to all-time highs. Sanae Takaichi's shock weekend win to lead Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and become Japan's next Prime Minister sent the dollar surging a ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials expressed limited reasons for further interest rate cuts, with expectations of only one cut this year [1][2] - There is a significant divergence in opinions among officials regarding the appropriate interest rate levels and inflation targets [4][8] - The market is closely watching Fed Chair Powell's upcoming comments on the economic outlook, which may influence future monetary policy [6][8] Group 2 - Following the recent interest rate cut, there was a notable increase in gold ETF holdings, with SPDR Gold Trust's holdings rising to 1000.57 tons, the highest since August 2022 [7] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a record high of $3791 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 44%, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and rate cut expectations [10][11] - The current market conditions are described as a "perfect storm" for gold prices, despite rising concerns about potential bubbles [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current surge in gold prices, attributing it to a "perfect storm" of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, while noting that key market indicators do not show signs of panic [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching a record high for the year with a settlement price of $3,775.10 per ounce, marking the 36th time this year that gold has set a new closing record [3][6]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by approximately 43%, surpassing the inflation-adjusted high from 1980, raising concerns among some investors about the sustainability of this upward trend [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment is described as a "perfect storm" for precious metals like gold, benefiting from inflation, currency devaluation, debt, conflict, and socio-economic anxieties [5]. - Analysts suggest that gold is viewed as an ideal investment for those seeking "disaster insurance" amid rising geopolitical tensions and domestic divisions in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for gold are showing positive signals, with recent price movements driven by healthy market behavior rather than new information, indicating a strong bullish trend [8]. - The market is characterized by a classic breakout pattern, suggesting a high-confidence upward movement in gold prices [8]. Group 4: Bubble Concerns - Key indicators in the options market do not suggest irrational exuberance, indicating that the gold market is not currently in a bubble [9]. - Although there are some signs that could indicate a potential bubble, such as increased media presence and ETF activity, the overall sentiment remains cautious [9].

摘要周四（9月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金区间震荡，昨日黄金价格微幅收涨，仍立于5日均线上方，日 线RSI位于超买区附近，4小时整体仍维持上行格局，今日黄金价格跌破生命线3638，并处于此处的下 方，并将形态收口，宣告进入调整的状态，蓄势再为重启上涨提供动力。 周四（9月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金区间震荡，昨日黄金价格微幅收涨，仍立于5日均线上方，日线 RSI位于超买区附近，4小时整体仍维持上行格局，今日黄金价格跌破生命线3638，并处于此处的下 方，并将形态收口，宣告进入调整的状态，蓄势再为重启上涨提供动力。 【要闻速递】 Lombard Odier表示，金价在2025年剩余时间内可能继续获得支撑。外汇策略师Kiran Kowshik和投资策 略主管Luca Bindelli在一份报告中指出，黄金创下历史新高的背景是市场风险加剧的叙事，包括通胀担 忧、政府债务攀升以及美国经济放缓。4月以来投机性仓位减少，加之在供应仍受限的情况下需求上 升，预计将进一步推高金价。 他们补充称，ETF的资金流向一直是黄金的重要影响因素，尤其是在亚洲。如果资金流动动能出现回升 迹象，金价可能进一步上涨。Lombard Odier将 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lombard Odier indicates that gold prices may continue to receive support for the remainder of 2025 due to increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The backdrop for gold reaching historical highs includes heightened market risks, such as inflation worries, increasing government debt, and a decelerating U.S. economy [1] - Since April, speculative positions have decreased, while demand has risen amid constrained supply, which is expected to further drive up gold prices [1] Group 2: Investment Influences - The flow of funds into ETFs has been a significant factor influencing gold prices, particularly in Asia [1] - If there are signs of a rebound in fund flow momentum, gold prices could see further increases [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lombard Odier indicates that gold prices may continue to receive support for the remainder of 2025 due to increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The backdrop for gold reaching historical highs includes heightened market risks such as inflation worries, escalating government debt, and a decelerating U.S. economy [1] - Since April, speculative positions have decreased, while demand has risen amid constrained supply, which is expected to further drive up gold prices [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The flow of funds into ETFs has been a significant factor influencing gold, particularly in Asia [1] - If there are signs of a rebound in fund flow momentum, gold prices could see further increases [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce [1]

黄金短期整理来回做， 原油反弹到位果断空！ 隔夜美国8月生产者物价指数（PPI）环比意外下降0.1%，远低于经济学家预期的0.3%上涨，同时7月数据也被下修至0.7%。这一意外疲软的表现，直接缓解 了市场的通胀担忧，再度加剧了美联储降息的预期，美债收益率再度回落，再度给予黄金一定支撑，晚间的话关注CPI数据的最新指引情况，技术面上走势 继周二拉出高位十字星之后，上个交易在3620这个我们跟大家分享的关键支撑位置有效企稳如期走出了反弹，欧美盘二次拉伸之后在3657附近承压回踩到 3640附近然后再度反弹到3655附近再度震荡回落到3635附近，跟我们预期基本一致，大起大落之后维持一个反复整理的格局运行，我们早间跟大家分享的 3620/21附近做多，晚间3640附近做多也都是有收获，60附近空单没有给到进场机会，日内的话美盘前还是看整理，美盘后关注CPI数据之后再看强弱方向情 况。 | DIV | .00 | 3623.97 | 3616.00 | 3640.00 | 2025.09.10 04:06:57 | 3640.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and outlook of gold ETFs, indicating a year-to-date increase of 30.86% as of September 5, with active trading reflected in a turnover rate of 1.03% and a transaction amount of 292 million yuan [1] - The international gold price is currently trading at $3548.93 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.1%, and the COMEX gold futures are reported at $3609.2 per ounce, reflecting a 0.07% rise [2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target to $3800 per ounce, emphasizing that historical data shows an average increase of 6% in gold prices within 60 days following a Federal Reserve rate cut, which supports a bullish outlook for gold [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a slight rise in risk premiums [4] - The uncertainty in global economic growth and ongoing geopolitical issues are driving safe-haven investments into gold, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, providing strong support for gold prices [5] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is identified as a key driver for gold prices, with historical trends indicating strong performance for gold during the initial phase of rate cuts, alongside concerns over geopolitical risks and inflation [6] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) and its associated funds are designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low entry barriers and diverse trading options, which supports T+0 trading [6] - Investors are advised to consider the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI data, as these may influence the pace of rate cuts and subsequently affect gold price volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rising share of gold in central bank reserves is becoming unstoppable, driven by concerns over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, debates over Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical turmoil [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant divergence in the performance of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds this year, with gold prices reaching historical highs while long-term Treasury yields have surged to multi-year peaks [1] - The demand for gold has accelerated, leading to a substantial increase in central bank holdings, which now total 36,000 tons globally [8] Group 2: Reserve Composition - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, now accounting for a higher share in central bank reserves than U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [6][7] - The current market value of gold held by central banks is approximately $4.5 trillion, significantly exceeding the $3.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [8] Group 3: Historical Context - The last time gold's share in global reserves exceeded that of U.S. Treasury bonds was in 1996, a period characterized by low inflation and stable economic growth [9] - The current macroeconomic environment is markedly different, favoring gold as a strategic reserve asset amid rising inflation and geopolitical shifts [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift in reserve management towards gold is seen as a significant milestone, indicating a deeper, long-term structural change in global reserve composition [10] - While the possibility of gold reclaiming its historical peak share of 75% in central bank reserves is low, the trend of increasing gold holdings is likely to continue in the near term due to persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks [11]

Group 1 - The US dollar is expected to decline by approximately 2% against major currencies in August due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with the dollar index currently at 97.917 and a year-to-date decline of nearly 10% [1] - President Trump has increased his influence over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to dismiss her, raising concerns about the Fed's policy independence [1][3] - The yield on short-term US Treasury bonds is being suppressed by rate cut expectations, while long-term yields are rising due to inflation concerns and policy risks, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve with a 57 basis point spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds, the steepest since April [3] Group 2 - Market participants are adopting a pragmatic approach regarding the risks to the Fed's independence, choosing to remain cautious in the short term [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 86%, up from 63% a month ago, with investors betting on cumulative cuts exceeding 100 basis points by mid-2025 [3] - The upcoming PCE price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a reading above 3% potentially intensifying doubts about a shift in Fed policy [4]