1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market generally showed a warm trend, with the yield curve becoming flatter. On March 23, the bond market continued to be under pressure due to the unclear Middle - East geopolitical situation and the continuous fermentation of inflation expectations. However, starting from March 24, as overseas released signals of the easing of the US - Iran conflict, inflation concerns subsided, and the domestic stock market was sluggish. The bond market recovered, and the long - term bond yields declined significantly. For short - term bonds, although the capital market remained loose last week, the capital price rose slightly during the tax period, limiting the downward space of short - term bond yields, and the spread between long - and short - term bonds narrowed [2]. - This week (the week of March 30), the bond market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend. The domestic monetary policy will focus on maintaining sufficient liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. The capital market is expected to remain loose, which will support short - term bonds. However, the concerns about imported inflation brought by the Middle - East situation and the cooling of the expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will continue to suppress the bond market sentiment, making the long - end trend more entangled. Considering the expected continued sluggish performance of the stock market and the market's dull reaction to geopolitical conflicts, the bond market is expected to continue its relatively strong and volatile trend this week, but attention should be paid to whether the manufacturing PMI and price sub - indices announced on Tuesday this week will have unexpected performance [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market generally showed a warm trend last week, and the long - term bond yields declined significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract rose 0.00% cumulatively throughout the week. On the last Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.27bp lower than that of the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield was 0.50bp lower than that of the previous Friday, with the term spread narrowing [3]. - On March 23, the bond market was generally weak and volatile. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.17bp. Most of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms closed down, with the 10 - year main contract down 0.09%. - On March 24, the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.44bp. Most of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms closed up, with the 10 - year main contract up 0.02%. - On March 25, the bond market was warm. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.39bp. The closing performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms was divergent, and the 10 - year main contract remained flat. - On March 26, the bond market continued to be warm. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.39bp. All the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms closed up, with the 10 - year main contract up 0.08%. - On March 27, the bond market was slightly warm. The long - end yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined 0.22bp. The closing of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures at all terms was mixed, with the 10 - year main contract down 0.01% [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 102 interest - rate bonds were issued, the same as the previous week. The issuance volume was 664.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 406.6 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was 205.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 570.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volume and net financing amount of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds all decreased compared with the previous week [13]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was generally acceptable. Two Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.24 times; 25 policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 4.72 times; 75 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 17.40 times [14]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events On March 25, the central bank carried out a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term. Since 450 billion yuan of MLF matured in March, the MLF continuation in that month increased by 50 billion yuan, which was the 13th consecutive month of increase. The main reason is that the issuance scale of government bonds in March and the following period will continue to be at a high level. At the same time, the issuance of 800 billion yuan of new policy - financial instruments announced in March this year will continue to drive large - scale bank supporting loans in March and later, and the issuance of policy - financial bonds will also increase significantly, which will bring a tightening effect on the capital market to a certain extent. Therefore, the central bank needs to continuously inject medium - and long - term liquidity into the market through the combination of various policy tools to guide the capital market to be in a relatively stable and sufficient state [16]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, most of the high - frequency data last week showed an upward trend. The blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily average molten iron output continued to rise, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants continued to decline. - On the demand side, the BDI index fluctuated slightly downward last week, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase. - In terms of prices, the pork price continued to decline last week, while most commodity prices rose. Among them, the prices of copper and crude oil both increased, and the price of rebar slightly declined [17]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net investment in the open market last week was 281.9 billion yuan. - The R007 and DR007 both increased last week, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks increased slightly, the national - share direct discount rates at all terms continued to decline, the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to decrease, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market first decreased and then increased, with an overall slight decline [29][32][34][37].

Group 1 - The international gold and silver prices have significantly dropped due to market concerns over inflation [1] - On March 26, international crude oil prices surged amid uncertainties regarding US-Iran negotiations, while major US stock indices experienced notable declines [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 521.75 points, a decrease of 2.38%, marking a cumulative drop of over 10% from its historical high on October 29 of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 Index declined by 1.74%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.01%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their largest single-day declines since the onset of the US-Iran conflict on February 28 [1] - As of the close on March 26, the main contract for US oil rose by 3.84% to $93.79 per barrel, while the main contract for Brent oil increased by 4.15% to $101.3 per barrel [1] - International precious metal prices generally fell, with spot gold dropping by 2.79% to $4379.68 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures declining by 3.85% to $4376.90 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market reactions to the escalating Middle East conflict and President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for striking Iranian energy facilities, highlighting the volatility in the stock and bond markets as well as the implications for inflation and energy prices [2][4][10]. Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced its most severe sell-off in months, with the S&P 500 index dropping 1.7%, marking its largest single-day decline since January 20, and reaching a six-month low [5]. - The Nasdaq Composite index fell 2.4%, entering a "technical correction" as it dropped over 10% from its late October peak [6]. - The bond market was also heavily impacted, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 7.95 basis points to 4.4117%, and the two-year yield increasing by 10.05 basis points to 3.9858%, reflecting investor fatigue amid rising inflation concerns [5]. Energy Prices and Inflation - Brent crude oil prices surged by 5.7% to $108.01 per barrel, the largest single-day increase since March 11, while WTI crude rose by 4.6% to $94.48 [5]. - The OECD warned that the Middle East crisis could push U.S. inflation rates to 4.2%, the highest among G7 countries [5]. Political and Economic Dynamics - Trump's administration is seen to oscillate between diplomatic efforts and military threats, with a recent extension of the deadline for military action against Iran, indicating a complex interplay of negotiation and military readiness [10]. - Observers note that Trump's rhetoric tends to soften when energy prices or borrowing costs reach certain thresholds, suggesting a strategic response to market conditions [9]. Investor Sentiment - Market reactions are characterized as rational responses to extreme uncertainty, with many investors opting to remain cautious and avoid sudden moves in light of potential policy shifts from the White House [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran peace talks and energy price fluctuations, while being vigilant about the uncertainty brought by the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts [1] - Gold is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Unless the US - Iran negotiations make substantial breakthroughs and drive oil prices to decline continuously, the upward space of gold prices may be limited. In the long - term, the core logic of gold's rise remains unchanged [1][2] - Silver is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, if the economic cycle shifts to a stagflation scenario, silver's elasticity may be limited and its trend will generally follow gold; if the economy returns to the recovery path, the elasticity of silver's industrial product attributes is expected to be gradually released, promoting its price to strengthen further [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - The market sentiment has been repaired, and precious metals have fluctuated upward, mainly boosted by the US releasing a peace - talk signal. The easing signal of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led to a decline in oil prices, partially alleviating market concerns about inflation and high interest rates, and supporting the strengthening of gold and silver prices [1] Gold Analysis - Short - term: Gold prices at home and abroad fluctuated upward. COMEX gold rose by more than 3% and SHFE gold rose by nearly 2%. The optimistic sentiment of a possible cease - fire in the Middle East boosted the price. However, Iran made a "negative response" to the US proposal [1] - Long - term: The core logic of gold's rise remains unchanged [2] Silver Analysis - Short - term: The domestic silver price rebounded following the foreign market. COMEX silver rose by more than 4% and SHFE silver rose by nearly 3%. The signal of the US's intention to cease fire for a month boosted the market sentiment. The decline in oil prices alleviated inflation concerns, and the marginal improvement of the US economic development path was beneficial to the industrial product elasticity of silver. However, the short - term spot drive of silver itself was still weak [2] - Long - term: The performance of silver depends on the economic cycle. If it shifts to stagflation, silver follows gold; if the economy recovers, silver's industrial product attributes will drive its price up [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index was 2505.87, a decrease of 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2799.49, an increase of 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, a decrease of 1.12% [44] - The precious metals index on March 25, 2026, was 3770.68, with a daily increase of 2.91%, a 5 - day decrease of 6.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 15.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.40% [46]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market had a volume - shrinking rebound, and the right - side signal for the future market is not clear. There is a possibility of a callback to build a bottom again. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3][9] - The implied volatility of stock index options declined, and the sentiment has not fully warmed up. It is recommended to continue holding the call option defense strategy [4][10] - The market priced in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the sentiment of the long - end of the bond market warmed up. The long - end of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and the short - end has relatively strong support [5][10] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the stock market had a volume - shrinking rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.59%, and the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index rose 3.24%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by more than 36 billion compared with the previous day. Small and micro - cap stocks were strong. The weak - dollar and anti - inflation sectors were strong, and the energy sector pulled back [3][9] - Overseas risks have not subsided, the stock market volume shrank significantly, and the support of institutional funds for broad - based ETFs is uncertain. So, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3][9] Stock Index Options - On Tuesday, the underlying market showed a "W" - shaped trend. The total trading volume of financial options decreased significantly. The implied volatility of each variety decreased during the day but was still higher than last week's level. The PCR of positions among varieties was divergent, and the skew index mostly increased, indicating a cautious view of the future market [4][10] - Considering the high uncertainty of external events, it is risky to bet on medium - term short - volatility or reversal strategies too early. It is recommended to continue holding the call option defense strategy [4][10] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, the long - and short - end trends of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to diverge. The prices of T and TL rose, while the prices of TF and TS fell. The T main contract opened higher and closed up after fluctuating [5][10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan, and the capital market remained stable. The market priced in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the long - end sentiment of the bond market warmed up [5][10] - The result of the US - Iran negotiation is undetermined. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. The central bank will renew 500 billion MLF on the 25th, and the short - end has relatively strong support, while the long - end may be volatile [5][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term precious metals may have a corrective rebound after oversold, and it is necessary to closely monitor the geopolitical negotiation progress between the US and Iran and be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. The medium - and long - term upward logic for gold remains unchanged. For silver, in the short - term, it follows gold and may rebound after oversold, and the risk of repeated conflicts should be watched. In the medium - and long - term, if the economic cycle shifts to a stagflation scenario, gold will still benefit, and silver's elasticity may be limited, but there is support for silver prices, and its overall trend is expected to follow gold [1][2][5]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Gold - Logic: Gold experienced a sharp sell - off during the day, with the price dropping by more than 8% and the COMEX gold price falling below the $4,150 per ounce mark, then rebounding. The positive signal of US - Iran dialogue released by Trump and the suspension of military strikes on Iranian energy facilities eased geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, driving the sharp drop in oil prices [1]. - Outlook: Short - term gold may have a corrective rebound after oversold, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the geopolitical negotiation progress between the US and Iran and be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. The medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1][2]. Silver - Logic: Silver showed a "V - shaped" reversal during the day, with the COMEX silver price dropping by more than 10% and reaching $61 per ounce, then rebounding. Trump's statement eased geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, and the deeply oversold market triggered a technical correction. The US - Iran conflict remains highly uncertain, and the upward space may be limited. The decline in COMEX silver positions and global silver ETF positions has temporarily alleviated the tight spot market, and the spot - driven force of silver is weak, with price rebounds mainly relying on risk sentiment repair [2][5]. - Outlook: In the short - term, silver follows gold and may have a corrective rebound after oversold, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. In the medium - and long - term, if the economic cycle shifts to a stagflation scenario, gold will still benefit, and silver's elasticity may be limited, but there is support for silver prices, and its overall trend is expected to follow gold [2][5]. Commodity Indexes - Comprehensive Index: No specific data analysis provided. - Special Indexes: The commodity index was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial products index was 2583.01, up 1.73% [45]. - Sector Indexes: The precious metals index on March 23, 2026, was 3675.04, with a daily decline of 4.31%, a 5 - day decline of 13.77%, a 1 - month decline of 11.89%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.90% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity futures market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to price fluctuations in various commodities [1][2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, while medium - to long - term trends depend on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic conditions [11][12][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Affected by external disturbances and low market sentiment, the stock index has been continuously adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short - term, and it is relatively strong in the medium - to long - term [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Inflation concerns caused by the Middle East situation and high oil prices suppress long - term bond trends, while short - term bonds benefit from stable capital. If the stock market decline expands, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion sentiment [2]. Container Shipping on European Routes The market has entered a high - level wide - range shock. The core logic has shifted from trading geopolitical conflicts to weighing risk premiums and the reality of the off - season. Near - month contracts are subject to repeated games between events and spot markets, and far - month contracts price in long - term conflicts, with high volatility risks [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, leading to inflation concerns. The shift in monetary policy expectations suppresses platinum and palladium prices. There are short - term price fluctuations [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Reversal of the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations, rising US dollar index and real interest rates of US bonds, and the escalation of Middle East conflicts have put pressure on gold and silver prices. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short - term [5]. - **Copper**: Tightening macro - expectations and weak industrial reality have caused copper prices to break through key ranges. In the short - term, the price remains weak, and in the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to marginal changes in macro - expectations and industrial supply - demand [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical factors initially pushed up prices, but then concerns about economic recession and liquidity tightening, along with a significant cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, have made aluminum prices fluctuate weakly. There is a possibility of price increases if raw material shortages lead to more production cuts [6]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity has declined, narrowing the oversupply situation, but new production capacity in Guangxi has brought supply pressure. Overseas, geopolitical factors in the Middle East have affected orders, and shipping costs have risen. The fundamentals are mixed, and cost and policy expectations provide phased support [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It strongly follows the price of Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below due to raw material shortages and the impact of tax refund policies [7]. - **Zinc**: The price is at the lower end of the range, with some support from downstream purchases. The supply pressure from domestic smelting is increasing, and the demand recovery is delayed. In the short - term, it runs weakly [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Fluctuate following macro - guidance. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict have put pressure on prices. The fundamentals are in a more intense game, and attention should be paid to demand release and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Tin**: Suppressed by both macro - panic sentiment and fundamentals. In the short - term, there is no obvious turning point, and in the medium - to long - term, the price center moves upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The market is jointly dominated by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Polysilicon has entered a loss - making range. The current is the bottom of the production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to production - capacity clearance and supply - demand optimization [10]. - **Lead**: The price fluctuates and adjusts. The supply side brings upward pressure, and the demand side recovers slowly. The price oscillates within a range [10]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran have pushed up oil and coking coal prices, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils form upward pressure. The short - term rebound height is limited [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The cost side provides support, but in the medium - to long - term, new production capacity will make the fundamentals looser [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There is a short - term surplus of coking coal, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [12]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Hurricane disturbances in Australia have affected manganese ore shipments, and coking coal provides cost support. The demand for ferroalloys from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, with large de - stocking pressure [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and short - term upward momentum still exists. The price fluctuates at a high level [13]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have restricted the inflow of regional oil. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has tightened significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply gap will support the spot premium and refinery profits in the short - term [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances have led to short - term price increases in crude oil, and in the short - term, geopolitical factors are the core determinants [14]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have provided cost support, and there are risks of reduced production in refineries. The market is short - term volatile and strong [15]. - **LPG**: The futures price has risen significantly driven by capital sentiment. The fundamentals provide limited support, and it enters a high - level shock in the short - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The situation in Iran threatens production and transportation, and geopolitical games are the core logic. The supply - demand pattern is dominated by geopolitics, and device uncertainties increase volatility [16]. - **PP and Propylene**: The fundamentals are still strong, and they are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend before the geopolitical risks are eliminated [17]. - **Plastic**: If the conflict continues, it is expected to run strongly; if the situation eases, some risk premiums will be withdrawn, but it is difficult to fall back to the pre - event level in the short - term [17]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber has risen significantly driven by energy costs and geopolitics, while natural rubber is under pressure from weak macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand structure supports the valuation [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains high, and the demand is stable but weak. The inventory performance is better than expected, and the price movement is restricted by supply - demand and macro - factors [18]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The price oscillates under the combined action of supply - demand and cost [19][20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply has tightened marginally, and the demand has improved marginally. The overall supply - demand pattern has improved, and the futures price is jointly driven by fundamentals and market sentiment [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The market is in a complex game stage. In the short - term, the hog price may continue to bottom around 10 yuan/kg, and the subsequent trend depends on whether cash - flow pressure can force capacity out - clearing [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The Sino - US negotiation in April has been postponed. In the short - term, the spot price is firm, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is being repaired [21]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The price of crude oil is the core influencing factor, and attention should be paid to the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia and the US [22]. - **Cotton**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to crude - oil fluctuations and increased macro - risks. In the short - term, the price has fallen, but in the medium - to long - term, the downstream demand has resilience, and the lower support is stable [23]. - **Sugar**: The expected sugar production in Brazil has been lowered, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has made capital cautious. The domestic supply - demand pattern is stable, and the sugar price oscillates [23]. - **Egg**: The supply of small - sized eggs is tight in some areas, and the feed price provides cost support. The short - term price adjusts slightly, and the upward space is limited [24]. - **Apple**: The Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is progressing, and the market is polarized. The fundamentals and delivery logic support the futures price, which maintains a strong - oscillating pattern [24]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side, and the downstream sales are mediocre. The price is under pressure and may oscillate at a low level [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in gold prices, with both New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures and London spot gold prices falling below $4200 per ounce, erasing all gains made this year [2] - International gold prices have dropped sharply over the past two weeks, with a cumulative decline of over $1400 per ounce compared to the historical high on January 29 [3] - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to multiple factors, including heightened inflation concerns due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, and tightening liquidity [3] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is identified as a key variable affecting market sentiment, with the potential for worsening conditions if the conflict persists [4] - Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are reported to severely impact oil and gas export revenues for Middle Eastern countries, which may lead these nations to sell gold, further increasing downward pressure on gold prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the alloy market experienced significant wide - range fluctuations. Affected by the news of a typhoon in Australia on Friday, manganese - silicon once rose above 6,600 yuan/ton, and the trends of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon diverged. The fundamentals of both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon showed little change in supply and demand last week. With the recovery of downstream demand, the silicon - iron inventory continued to decline, but the manganese - silicon still faced high - level inventory accumulation pressure. High oil prices due to the ongoing Middle - East situation have led to inflation concerns in the market, and the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has dragged down the commodity market. In the alloy market, the supply - demand imbalance lacks driving forces, but the energy premium has increased the cost center. Coupled with the disturbance of manganese ore supply, the short - term alloy trend is strong, but it is not advisable to chase high prices. For the long - term, due to de - globalization and the energy crisis, the supply of global resource products will tighten, and the prices of relevant varieties will rise. However, currently, the market sentiment is positive, so short - selling should be cautious, and industrial hedging should control the capital rhythm [5][23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Silicon - iron - **Supply**: The output of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises reached 104,400 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 7.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%. In February 2025, the silicon - iron output was 393,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.1% [7] - **Demand**: The consumption of silicon - iron in five major steel products was 19,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 839,820 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [9] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.4%. The steel mill inventory in February was 18.57 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 days and a year - on - year increase of 2.3 days [11] - **Cost**: The cost remained stable. The prices of raw materials such as electricity, blue charcoal small materials, and silicon stone did not change. The profit in Qinghai remained at - 656.12 yuan, the profit in Ningxia decreased by 32.22% to - 123.12 yuan, and the profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 9.66% to - 187.12 yuan [12][15] - **Basis**: The silicon - iron futures price was at a premium. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 10,147, a week - on - week increase of 1,920 and a year - on - year increase of 602. The basis of the 05 contract in Ningxia was - 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [16][18] - **Strategy**: The short - term trend is strong. The strategy is to buy on dips, with the upper pressure at 6,300 [5] 3.2 Manganese - silicon - **Supply**: The output of 121 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 196,000 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In February, the national silicon - manganese output was 773,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [26] - **Demand**: The weekly consumption of silicon - manganese was 119,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 839,820 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [28] - **Inventory**: The enterprise sample inventory was 384,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 144%. The steel mill inventory in February was 18.72 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 days and a year - on - year increase of 2.7 days [30] - **Cost**: Affected by the typhoon news, port traders raised prices and sealed offers. The prices of some manganese ores increased, and the cost of silicon - manganese in different regions increased by about 0.85% - 0.94%. The profit in different regions also increased, with the profit in Ningxia increasing by 64.69%, in Inner Mongolia by 59.79%, in Guangxi by 13.34%, and in Guizhou by 15.82% [23][35] - **Basis**: The basis narrowed. The number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 54,908, a week - on - week decrease of 1,198 and a year - on - year decrease of 50,528. The basis of the 05 contract in Inner Mongolia was 50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Strategy**: The 05 contract is temporarily looking at the pressure near last week's high point. It is not advisable to chase high prices, and industrial hedging should control the capital rhythm [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the Middle - East situation and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have led to a decline in gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices have given back their previous gains, and the downward pressure on gold prices has increased. Although there is some support from the photovoltaic sector for silver prices, the decline in gold prices will cause silver prices to widen their decline [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. However, with the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still macro - level support [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The Middle - East situation escalated, the expectation of interest rate hikes increased, and gold prices continued to fall. US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce. The basis was - 0.72, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 106,845 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The Middle - East situation escalated, the expectation of interest rate hikes increased, and silver prices gave back all of the previous day's gains. US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce. The basis was + 35, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,370 kilograms to 362,495 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net short position changed to a long position [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: Consider the Middle - East situation, the euro - zone confidence index, and US construction spending in January. The expectation of interest rate hikes has increased, inflation concerns are high, and panic has spread. Gold prices have broken through the February low, and the downward pressure has increased. The premium of Shanghai gold has been maintained at 5.5 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The expectation of interest rate hikes has increased, and silver prices have given back their previous gains. The premium of Shanghai silver has significantly converged to around 1,750 yuan per kilogram. Although the photovoltaic sector has supported silver prices, the decline in gold prices will cause silver prices to widen their decline [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The domestic refined oil product will open a new round of price adjustment window (time to be determined). - At 22:00, US construction spending in January will be released. - At 23:00, the preliminary value of the euro - zone consumer confidence index for March and a speech by European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone will be available. - At 00:00 the next day, a speech by European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane will be given [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. However, with the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still macro - level support [9]. - **Silver**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. The photovoltaic and technology sectors support silver prices, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game also have an impact [13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.87% to 159,328, the short positions decreased by 0.82% to 43,816, and the net long positions decreased by 3.63% to 115,512 [39]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 2.84% to 250,241, the short positions decreased by 3.03% to 238,173, and the net long positions increased by 1.22% to 12,068 [42].