今天的走势 今天再回落，下穿4040的位置。 继续回调，下看4000的关口的支撑。 不破此位置，再次反弹，继续看挑战4064的位置。 黄金昨天一天内两连跳，接连止跌反弹后，4100再接连遇阻。快速冲高，又跳水，70美金范围内，上蹿 下跳穿梭4100的关口，今天震荡破低，下探4000关口。 昨天4100附近，再次空获利。 昨晚再做过山车，小破4100后。 再次上演跳水，持续4040范围内洗盘。 另外一方面，美9月非农驾到，迟到了一个多月，终于还是来了。不过影响力显然不足，迟到的数据终 归还是迟到。同步公布的还有美失业率，意外的是刷了4年新高，失业金月月增加，两大数据打架，黄 金上蹿下跳不断洗盘。 今天消息面 今天重点美11月PMI来了，检测美经济的强弱的重要指标，或再揭开美经济的真实面纱，或再给美股美 债带来一个冲击，进而波及美元和黄金。 以及重点，今晚周五收官，美联储官员密集发声，又要搞事情来了。美劳动力市场谜团未解，通胀的担 忧，继续给美联储政策上难题，内部鹰鸽继续分歧，加剧撕裂感，晴雨难测，今晚或又要面临黑色星期 五。 当然了，再次上破，继续看向4110的阻力。 同时，4064下方，再次遇阻回调。 下穿4 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on November 14 was quoted at 958.80 yuan per gram, showing a premium of 5.6 yuan per gram over the futures main price of 953.20 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, shifting market focus to key economic data, with inflation concerns and differing views among Federal Reserve officials leading to reduced interest rate cut expectations [1] - China's manufacturing sector showed a decline in October, with exports falling more than expected, contributing to a slowdown in domestic economic growth, although October inflation data exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures reported that the precious metals market saw overall gains, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing at 956.96 yuan per gram, up 0.11%, while the main silver contract rose to 12,405 yuan per kilogram, up 0.40% [2] - The reopening of the U.S. government led to market sell-offs, and several Federal Reserve officials reiterated hawkish signals, putting short-term pressure on precious metals [2] - The current outlook for precious metals remains strong in the medium to long term, with recommendations for cautious short-term buying and opportunistic long-term purchases [2]

2025.11.14 本文字数：1002，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周四大幅下跌，三大指数创一个多月以来最大单日跌幅，AI 龙头引领下挫。随着通胀担忧升 温、多位美联储官员对进一步宽松释放谨慎信号，市场对12月降息的押注明显降温。截至收盘，道琼斯 工业平均指数下跌797.6点，收于47457.22点，跌幅1.65%；标普500指数下跌1.66%，收于6737.49点；纳 斯达克综合指数重挫2.29%，报22870.36点。 七巨头全线承压，科技股领跌大盘。大型科技股集体承压，"七巨头"中，微软下跌1.54%，亚马逊下跌 2.71%，苹果下跌0.19%，特斯拉大跌6.64%，英伟达下跌3.58%，谷歌A下跌2.84%，只有Meta微涨 0.14% 资产管理公司Longbow Asset Management首席执行官杰克·多拉海德（Jake Dollarhide）表示："市场在押 注降息，但美联储并没有给出明确信号。关税推升的通胀是否只是一次性扰动，是官员们犹豫的关键原 因。" 公司层面，思科上涨4.6%，公司上调全年营收与利润预测，受益于网络设备需求持续增长。迪士尼重 挫7.8%， ...

黄金建议：回踩4126-4120区间布局多 止损10美金 目标4160-80 技术面上，黄金涨势凌厉，日线录得大阳线，4小时图均线呈多头排列，MACD指标金叉放量，表明当 前多头占据绝对主导。值得注意的是，持续40天的美国政府停摆已初步结束，积压的非农、CPI等关键 数据即将公布，这可能引发市场剧烈波动并为美联储政策路径提供新指引。此外，市场对美国潜在财政 刺激的讨论可能加剧通胀担忧，进一步凸显黄金的对冲价值。综合来看，黄金基本面与技术面强势共 振，整体趋势向上。操作上，建议顺应趋势以逢低做多为主，但需警惕重要数据公布后可能带来的短线 震荡风险。 高晓峰:11.11地缘冲突未平+降息预期又起，黄金避险买盘激增 近期美国就业与消费者信心数据疲软，令市场对美联储提前降息的预期急剧升温，这成为推动金价上涨 的核心动力。作为非生息资产，黄金在低利率预期下的吸引力显著增强。同时，俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等 地缘政治风险持续，也为金价提供了稳固的避险支撑。在多重利好因素共同作用下，黄金买盘强劲，价 格持续走高。 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究 ...

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that September saw the largest monthly inflow of physical gold ETFs in history, contributing to a record total inflow of $26 billion for Q3 [1] - As of the end of Q3, global gold ETF assets under management (AUM) reached $472 billion, marking a new historical high [1] Inflows by Region - North America and Europe were the dominant forces, with inflows of approximately $10.6 billion and $4.4 billion in September, respectively [1] - North America recorded a 6% increase in total holdings [3] - Europe experienced its third strongest monthly inflow ever, driven by strong demand in the UK, Switzerland, and Germany, despite unchanged interest rates from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England [10] Demand Drivers - Key drivers for the increased demand included ongoing trade, policy, and geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and concerns over a potential government shutdown [8] - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September and expectations for further cuts this year have also contributed to the rising interest in gold [8] - Investors are seeking safe-haven assets amid stock market highs and strong macroeconomic data, which has supported gold demand [8] Asian Market Dynamics - Asia saw inflows of approximately $9.02 million in September, primarily from China and Japan, with India leading the region due to the depreciation of the Indian rupee and weak domestic stock market performance [14] Trading Volume and Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for gold reached $191 billion, a 12% increase from the previous month, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 [15] - Gold ETF trading volume surged to an average of $8 billion per day, reflecting an 84% increase [15] - The New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw significant increases in trading volumes, contributing to overall market activity [19]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs due to increased concerns over credit quality in the economy, geopolitical tensions, and investor bets on a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Spot gold rose by 1.2% to $4,379.96 per ounce, marking a historical high and potentially the largest weekly gain since 2020 [1] - HSBC has raised its gold price forecast for 2025 from $3,215 to $3,355 per ounce, citing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weaker dollar as reasons [1] Group 2 - HSBC also increased its 2026 gold price forecast from $3,125 to $3,950 per ounce, a 26% increase, and expects bullish market sentiment to continue driving gold prices upward [1] - However, HSBC warned that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates less than currently expected, it could suppress gold price growth [1] - Global inflation's gradual decline may weaken the demand for gold jewelry, which was previously driven by inflation concerns [1] Group 3 - According to a report from招商证券, gold prices are expected to continue reaching new highs due to short-term factors like inflation resistance and risk aversion, as well as long-term monetary and financial factors [2] - The report anticipates that gold prices will remain strong in the short term due to heightened risk aversion [2] - Three key factors are identified that will continue to push the gold price upward in the medium to long term [2] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the gold and precious metals sector include Zijin Mining (02899), Zhaojin Mining (01818), and China Gold International (02099) among others [3]

Group 1 - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's next Prime Minister has led to a significant surge in the dollar against the yen, surpassing 150 yen, and the Nikkei index rising nearly 5% to over 48,000 [2] - Takaichi's stance against Bank of Japan tightening and support for fiscal stimulus has resulted in record highs for 30-year Japanese government bond yields and the steepest yield curve in a month, as expectations for an October rate hike diminished [2][5] - In France, the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his cabinet has created political uncertainty, causing the CAC40 index to drop over 1.5% and the euro to fall below $1.17 [3] Group 2 - U.S. markets are reacting to the ongoing government shutdown and the upcoming earnings season, with stock futures and the dollar rising, while long-term Treasury borrowing rates are also increasing [4] - Fed funds futures indicate a 95% probability of a U.S. interest rate cut in October, with concerns about prolonged government shutdown impacting job losses and consumer confidence [5] - Gold and bitcoin have reached new record highs due to political instability in G7 countries, with gold peaking just above $3,944 and bitcoin exceeding $125,000 for the first time [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials expressed limited reasons for further interest rate cuts, with expectations of only one cut this year [1][2] - There is a significant divergence in opinions among officials regarding the appropriate interest rate levels and inflation targets [4][8] - The market is closely watching Fed Chair Powell's upcoming comments on the economic outlook, which may influence future monetary policy [6][8] Group 2 - Following the recent interest rate cut, there was a notable increase in gold ETF holdings, with SPDR Gold Trust's holdings rising to 1000.57 tons, the highest since August 2022 [7] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a record high of $3791 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 44%, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and rate cut expectations [10][11] - The current market conditions are described as a "perfect storm" for gold prices, despite rising concerns about potential bubbles [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current surge in gold prices, attributing it to a "perfect storm" of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, while noting that key market indicators do not show signs of panic [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching a record high for the year with a settlement price of $3,775.10 per ounce, marking the 36th time this year that gold has set a new closing record [3][6]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by approximately 43%, surpassing the inflation-adjusted high from 1980, raising concerns among some investors about the sustainability of this upward trend [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment is described as a "perfect storm" for precious metals like gold, benefiting from inflation, currency devaluation, debt, conflict, and socio-economic anxieties [5]. - Analysts suggest that gold is viewed as an ideal investment for those seeking "disaster insurance" amid rising geopolitical tensions and domestic divisions in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for gold are showing positive signals, with recent price movements driven by healthy market behavior rather than new information, indicating a strong bullish trend [8]. - The market is characterized by a classic breakout pattern, suggesting a high-confidence upward movement in gold prices [8]. Group 4: Bubble Concerns - Key indicators in the options market do not suggest irrational exuberance, indicating that the gold market is not currently in a bubble [9]. - Although there are some signs that could indicate a potential bubble, such as increased media presence and ETF activity, the overall sentiment remains cautious [9].

Core Insights - Gold prices are expected to continue receiving support through the remainder of 2025 due to increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy [2] - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce, with expectations that gold could reach $4,000 per ounce and silver $50 per ounce in the next three to six months [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold may break below the support level of $3,623 per ounce, potentially falling to a range of $3,539 to $3,591 [3] Market Dynamics - Speculative positions in gold have decreased since April, while demand has risen amid limited supply, which is expected to further drive up gold prices [2] - The flow of funds into ETFs remains a significant factor influencing gold prices, particularly in Asia, with potential for further price increases if momentum in fund flows improves [2] Technical Analysis - The five-wave cycle starting from $3,322 appears to have completed, with a target area for retracement identified between $3,539 and $3,591 [3] - A resistance level is noted at $3,649, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a mild increase into the range of $3,674 to $3,685 [3] - Recent candlestick patterns indicate a waning bullish momentum, with a high likelihood of a pullback to $3,576 [3]