| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月11日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落。上周一件疑似乌龙事件令美盘黄金一度创造历史新高较伦敦黄金出现较大溢价。英国《金 融时报》8日报道披露美国海关与边境保护局7月31日签发的裁定函明确1公斤和100盎司的金条应归类于一个 需缴纳更高税额的关税编码之下,不在免税范畴。但此后有白宫官员称相关报道为"错误信息",美盘溢价 回落。近期美国对等关税已经正式生效，部分国家有所加码,美国经济前景担忧以及降息预期升温推动国际 金价测试近三个月以来运行区间高位重要阻力。利率期货定价9月美联储将重启降息,年内降息2-3次，美联 储部分官员表态认为降息时点已至。在对美国经济不断验证下市场情绪面临反复 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Group 2: Core Views - The decline of the US non - manufacturing PMI in July, concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have weakened the US dollar, causing international gold prices to test the resistance at the high of the operating range in the past three months. Amid the repeated market sentiment due to the continuous verification of the US economy, the idea of buying on dips is maintained in the precious metals' oscillating trend [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information US Economic Data - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The July ISM new orders index decreased from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders shrank for the fourth time in five months [1][2] - The US trade balance in June was -$60.2 billion, the smallest deficit since September 2023 [1] Tariff Information - Trump announced that drug and chip tariffs would be announced in the next week, with drug tariffs reaching up to 250%. Indian tariffs would be significantly increased within 24 hours, and a 35% tariff would be imposed if the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US [1] Political News - Trump believes that Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance. A new Fed chairman may be announced soon, with four candidates, and Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2]

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, leading to a decline in the US dollar, which has hit a three-year low, supporting a rise in gold prices [1][2] - Gold prices have rebounded after hitting a one-month low, with three consecutive days of increases, reaching a weekly high [2][4] - The recent pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to between 0.5% and 1.75% has contributed to the downward pressure on the dollar and the rise in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technical indicators suggest that gold has further rebound potential, with support levels at $3350 and $3333, and resistance levels at $3380 and $3400 [4] - The recent ADP employment data has raised concerns about the US economic outlook, which may lead to an earlier-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold prices [4]