热点报告——外汇期货 美联储偏向鹰派，美元短期走强 总体来看，6 月份利率会议偏向鹰派，虽然美国经济滞胀压力上 升，但是由于对于通胀压力高度关注，因此美联储选择继续观 望，并且远期利率指引偏向继续压制通胀预期。因此短期预计 美元指数回升。 ★投资建议 短期美元指回升。 ★风险提示： [★TaFbOleM_SCu6m月m利ary率] 会议：维持利率水平不变 美联 6 月利率会议美联储符合市场预期维持利率水平不变。但 是对于远期预期降息次数减少，受此影响市场风险偏好走弱， 美元指数短期回升。 从对于经济的描述来看，经济活动继续扩张，失业率维持在低 位，劳动力市场稳健。这些表述和上次利率会议一致。细节在 于美联储把失业率稳定在低位，改成失业率维持在低位，这表 明了劳动力市场有走弱的倾向。 外 汇 期 货 美联储在会议声明维持利率水平不变，本次会议声明表示"经 济前景的不确定性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降， 但仍处于较高水平"，同时删去了"认为高失业和高通胀的风 险都有所上升"的表述。这个改变意味着美联储对于远期经济 的看法偏向于不确定性减少，滞胀压力进一步扩大的压力减轻， 因此美联储对于短期经济走势的看法边 ...

Key Points - The recent significant pullback in gold prices, with London spot gold closing at $3,202 per ounce (-3.7%) and domestic AU9999 gold at 746 yuan per gram (-5.0%) [1] - The rise in the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield by 6 basis points to 4.43% [1] - Easing of U.S.-China tariff negotiations has led to increased risk aversion, causing gold prices to initially drop before recovering to around $3,200 [1] - The dual impact of Middle East conflicts and the Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating has raised concerns about U.S. fiscal health, injecting strong risk diversification momentum into the market [1] Market Analysis - The surge in gold prices due to the April tariff escalation has concluded with the easing signals since April 23, leading to a healthy correction of previously overheated gold prices [2] - The current pricing of gold reflects a sufficient discounting of the tariff easing event, with a maximum pullback of 8-10% from the $3,500 high [2] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the U.S. are expected to gradually transmit, despite the easing of tariffs, as prior tariff impacts have not yet fully reflected in economic data [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still in progress, with expectations for three rate cuts this year, benefiting gold [2] - The weakening of U.S. dollar credit due to U.S. debt issues supports central bank gold purchases, with a current ten-year Treasury yield of 4% and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 130% [2] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on U.S. debt issues and economic stagflation pressures, and consider positioning in gold ETFs (518880) and related funds (A class 000216/C class 000217) [2] Upcoming Signals - Key signals to watch for the gold ETF (518880) in the coming week include U.S. April new home sales and a speech by the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman [3]