Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bullish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The June interest - rate meeting of the Federal Reserve was hawkish. Despite the rising stagflation pressure in the US economy, due to high concern about inflation, the Fed chose to continue monitoring, and the forward interest - rate guidance tended to suppress inflation expectations. Therefore, the US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [1][18][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. FOMC June Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the interest - rate level as expected, but the number of expected future interest - rate cuts decreased, weakening market risk appetite and causing a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [1][7] - The description of the economy indicated that economic activity continued to expand, and the unemployment rate remained low, but the change from "stable" to "maintained" in the description of the unemployment rate suggested a weakening labor market [1][7] - The Fed's view on the long - term economy showed less uncertainty, and the pressure of further expanding stagflation was reduced, with a marginal increase in optimism about the short - term economic trend [1][7] - Economic forecasts showed that the GDP growth rate in 2024 was expected to be only 1.4%, and the inflation rate would reach 3%. Compared with the March forecast, the GDP growth rate was lowered by 0.3 percentage points, and the PCE and core PCE were both raised by 0.3 percentage points, indicating rising short - term stagflation pressure [9] - The interest - rate dot plot showed that the number of expected interest - rate cuts in 2025 remained unchanged, but only one cut was expected in 2026 and 2027. The number of Fed officials who thought no cuts were needed increased to 7, indicating a hawkish stance [9] - Powell's press conference was hawkish. The Fed was highly concerned about inflation and optimistic about the US economic fundamentals [18] 2. Investment Advice - The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [2][19]

Key Points - The recent significant pullback in gold prices, with London spot gold closing at $3,202 per ounce (-3.7%) and domestic AU9999 gold at 746 yuan per gram (-5.0%) [1] - The rise in the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield by 6 basis points to 4.43% [1] - Easing of U.S.-China tariff negotiations has led to increased risk aversion, causing gold prices to initially drop before recovering to around $3,200 [1] - The dual impact of Middle East conflicts and the Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating has raised concerns about U.S. fiscal health, injecting strong risk diversification momentum into the market [1] Market Analysis - The surge in gold prices due to the April tariff escalation has concluded with the easing signals since April 23, leading to a healthy correction of previously overheated gold prices [2] - The current pricing of gold reflects a sufficient discounting of the tariff easing event, with a maximum pullback of 8-10% from the $3,500 high [2] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the U.S. are expected to gradually transmit, despite the easing of tariffs, as prior tariff impacts have not yet fully reflected in economic data [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still in progress, with expectations for three rate cuts this year, benefiting gold [2] - The weakening of U.S. dollar credit due to U.S. debt issues supports central bank gold purchases, with a current ten-year Treasury yield of 4% and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 130% [2] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on U.S. debt issues and economic stagflation pressures, and consider positioning in gold ETFs (518880) and related funds (A class 000216/C class 000217) [2] Upcoming Signals - Key signals to watch for the gold ETF (518880) in the coming week include U.S. April new home sales and a speech by the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman [3]