Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $3316, maintaining a low-level fluctuation and approaching the support of the 100-day moving average, influenced by cautious optimism regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key driver of gold price volatility, with traders estimating an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which would typically be favorable for gold due to lower opportunity costs [3] - There is uncertainty surrounding Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, as past statements have had significant impacts on market expectations, particularly regarding inflation and interest rates [3] Group 2 - The recent decline in gold prices has been characterized by a bearish trend, with prices remaining below the middle and 60-day moving averages, indicating that bearish sentiment prevails until prices stabilize above these levels [4] - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $3311 and $3275, while resistance levels are noted at $3327 and $3340, suggesting a cautious trading strategy in the current market environment [5]

不过，尽管他认为经济和劳动力市场仍然"稳健"，但增长前景与通胀前景一样在迅速恶化。根据美联储 官员的预测，2025-2027年的累计GDP增长率将比去年12月份的预测低约1.25个百分点，累计通胀率将 高出约一个百分点。 转自：金十数据 美联储本周略微转向鹰派，表明其更担心通胀上升而非增长放缓。但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，应谨慎看 待这一前景。 美联储修订后的经济预测显示，官员们预计未来几个季度美国失业率和通胀率将上升，经济增长将放 缓。"滞胀"风险正在上升。 然而，与大多数其他G10央行不同的是，美联储拒绝先发制人地降息，而是选择等待关税引发的通胀前 景更加明朗后再决定下一步行动。 这是可以理解的。特朗普的关税对价格和经济活动的全面影响只有在7月9日之后才能感受到，届时目前 所谓的对等关税暂停期将结束。与此同时，随着以色列和伊朗之间的战争不断升级，新的地缘政治风险 正在上升，推动油价上涨。 在这种背景下，保持政策的"适度"限制性（鲍威尔对美联储当前立场的描述）是合理的。 鲍威尔几乎肯定会淡化或彻底否定这些动机，但它们仍将继续影响投资者对美联储行动的解读。 美联储亦毫无头绪 如果增长和通胀风险大体平衡，为什么官员 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over inflation due to soaring oil prices [1][4][5] - The US dollar index is expected to rise by 0.5%, marking the largest weekly increase in a month, driven by investor fears of potential US military intervention in the region [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the current rebound of the dollar reflects a desire for certainty during turbulent times rather than a reassessment of the US economic fundamentals [4][8] Group 2 - The sharp increase in oil prices has introduced new inflation uncertainties for central banks, complicating their policy decisions between supporting growth and controlling inflation [5] - The Bank of England has expressed vigilance regarding the potential impact of rising oil prices on the UK economy, following a spike of over 10% in oil prices due to recent conflicts [5] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates for the sixth consecutive time, contributing to expectations of further policy easing from other central banks, which indirectly supports the dollar's strength [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has further bolstered the dollar, with officials still anticipating two rate cuts this year, despite warnings from the Fed Chair not to overemphasize this outlook [6] - Concerns over tariffs and their impact on costs, corporate profit margins, and overall growth continue to weigh on the dollar, which has declined approximately 9% year-to-date [8] - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the dollar is being tested by various factors, including trade policies, rising fiscal deficits, and challenges to US global leadership [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bullish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The June interest - rate meeting of the Federal Reserve was hawkish. Despite the rising stagflation pressure in the US economy, due to high concern about inflation, the Fed chose to continue monitoring, and the forward interest - rate guidance tended to suppress inflation expectations. Therefore, the US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [1][18][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. FOMC June Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the interest - rate level as expected, but the number of expected future interest - rate cuts decreased, weakening market risk appetite and causing a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [1][7] - The description of the economy indicated that economic activity continued to expand, and the unemployment rate remained low, but the change from "stable" to "maintained" in the description of the unemployment rate suggested a weakening labor market [1][7] - The Fed's view on the long - term economy showed less uncertainty, and the pressure of further expanding stagflation was reduced, with a marginal increase in optimism about the short - term economic trend [1][7] - Economic forecasts showed that the GDP growth rate in 2024 was expected to be only 1.4%, and the inflation rate would reach 3%. Compared with the March forecast, the GDP growth rate was lowered by 0.3 percentage points, and the PCE and core PCE were both raised by 0.3 percentage points, indicating rising short - term stagflation pressure [9] - The interest - rate dot plot showed that the number of expected interest - rate cuts in 2025 remained unchanged, but only one cut was expected in 2026 and 2027. The number of Fed officials who thought no cuts were needed increased to 7, indicating a hawkish stance [9] - Powell's press conference was hawkish. The Fed was highly concerned about inflation and optimistic about the US economic fundamentals [18] 2. Investment Advice - The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [2][19]