Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing slight fluctuations, with concerns over the U.S. government shutdown and potential intervention by Japanese authorities limiting further losses for the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Movements - As of November 4, the USD/JPY is trading around 154.1900, down 0.01% from an opening price of 154.2100, maintaining the previous day's closing level [1]. - The Federal Reserve's potential decision to keep interest rates unchanged in December has contributed to a slight increase in the USD/JPY [1]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - There are worries regarding the economic risks associated with a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which may impact market sentiment [1]. - Speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities to prevent further depreciation of the yen is also influencing market dynamics [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - A technical breakout above the 153.25-153.30 resistance and the psychological level of 154.00 is seen as a key trigger for bullish sentiment in USD/JPY [2]. - Indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably in positive territory, supporting a potential move towards mid-term resistance levels of 154.75-154.80 and the psychological barrier of 155.00 [2]. - Any corrective pullback below 154.00 may find support around the previous low of approximately 153.65, with further support levels at 153.30-153.25 and 153.00 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee is facing significant pressure against the backdrop of a strengthening US Dollar, nearing its historical low exchange rate [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The primary external factor pressuring the Rupee is the overall strength of the US Dollar, with the Dollar Index hovering near a three-month high [4]. - The strong Dollar has led to a general weakening of Asian currencies, including the Rupee [4]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has altered market expectations regarding US interest rates, further strengthening the Dollar and impacting the Rupee negatively [7]. Group 2: Domestic Factors - Domestic pressures include ongoing dollar buying by Indian importers to hedge against overseas procurement costs, which continues to exert downward pressure on the Rupee [7]. - The imposition of high tariffs on Indian exports by the US since late August has contributed to the depreciation expectations of the Rupee [7]. - The maturity of positions in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market has also stimulated demand for the Dollar, further weakening the Rupee [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment is currently focused on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials for insights into the future direction of US benchmark interest rates [8]. - The market now estimates a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, down from over 90% a week prior, indicating a cooling of expectations for monetary easing [8]. - Short-term projections suggest that the Rupee may continue to experience moderate pressure, fluctuating within the range of 88.50 to 89.10 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, are attributed to a combination of geopolitical events and monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve, leading to significant price volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 8, spot gold reached a historic high of $4,059 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices rose to ¥1,176 per gram, before experiencing a sharp decline to around $4,001 the following day [1]. - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices was the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel on October 9, which alleviated market fears and led to a withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% was interpreted as a temporary adjustment rather than the start of a rate-cutting cycle, contributing to rising expectations of actual interest rates [1][4]. Group 2: Institutional Positioning - As of September 23, the CFTC's report indicated a modest increase in non-commercial net long positions in gold, rising by only 339 contracts to 266,749, suggesting that institutions were cautious and not aggressively increasing their positions [5]. - The increase in silver net longs was similarly limited, with only 738 contracts added, indicating a lack of confidence in a sustained upward trend in precious metals [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The next three months are expected to see gold and silver enter a "wide fluctuation period," with gold likely trading between $3,850 and $4,100 in October, and potentially reaching $4,200 in November if rate cut expectations adjust [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,968, while silver is projected to fluctuate between ¥10,800 and ¥12,000 per kilogram, with industrial demand providing additional support for silver prices [7]. - The market's response to upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and inflation data will be crucial in shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance [5].

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $3316, maintaining a low-level fluctuation and approaching the support of the 100-day moving average, influenced by cautious optimism regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key driver of gold price volatility, with traders estimating an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which would typically be favorable for gold due to lower opportunity costs [3] - There is uncertainty surrounding Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, as past statements have had significant impacts on market expectations, particularly regarding inflation and interest rates [3] Group 2 - The recent decline in gold prices has been characterized by a bearish trend, with prices remaining below the middle and 60-day moving averages, indicating that bearish sentiment prevails until prices stabilize above these levels [4] - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $3311 and $3275, while resistance levels are noted at $3327 and $3340, suggesting a cautious trading strategy in the current market environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has slightly shifted towards a hawkish stance, indicating greater concern over rising inflation than slowing growth, while Chairman Powell advises caution regarding this outlook [1][2]. Economic Forecasts - The revised economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve suggest an expected increase in unemployment and inflation rates in the coming quarters, alongside a slowdown in economic growth, with rising "stagflation" risks [1][2]. - The cumulative GDP growth rate forecast for 2025-2027 has been lowered by approximately 1.25 percentage points compared to the previous December estimate, while the cumulative inflation rate is projected to be about 1 percentage point higher [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Despite balancing growth and inflation risks, Federal Reserve officials have lowered the interest rate cut expectations for the next two years by 25 basis points, indicating a higher "terminal" rate [2]. - This hawkish inclination may be aimed at managing sentiment, as recent surveys show consumer inflation expectations have surged to their highest levels in decades [2]. Motivations Behind Hawkish Stance - The Federal Reserve's previous misjudgment during the inflation surge of 2021-2022 has led to a desire to avoid repeating past mistakes, contributing to the current hawkish approach [3]. - Ongoing fiscal and institutional risks in the U.S., including persistent budget deficits and rising debt burdens, are influencing the decision to maintain higher long-term policy rates [3]. - Public criticism from former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies may also be prompting the Fed to assert its independence [3]. Uncertainty in Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is currently facing significant uncertainty regarding future economic conditions, which is unique compared to other countries [5]. - Chairman Powell's approach appears to be one of waiting to see the effects of Trump's tariff policies before making further decisions, reflecting a rationale for inaction in a seemingly healthy economy [6]. - The usefulness of the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" for interest rate predictions is being questioned, as there is a lack of confidence in the projected paths due to high uncertainty [6]. Future Outlook - The next revision of economic forecasts by the Federal Reserve is expected in September, when the impacts of tariffs, Middle Eastern tensions, and the U.S. fiscal outlook should become clearer [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over inflation due to soaring oil prices [1][4][5] - The US dollar index is expected to rise by 0.5%, marking the largest weekly increase in a month, driven by investor fears of potential US military intervention in the region [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the current rebound of the dollar reflects a desire for certainty during turbulent times rather than a reassessment of the US economic fundamentals [4][8] Group 2 - The sharp increase in oil prices has introduced new inflation uncertainties for central banks, complicating their policy decisions between supporting growth and controlling inflation [5] - The Bank of England has expressed vigilance regarding the potential impact of rising oil prices on the UK economy, following a spike of over 10% in oil prices due to recent conflicts [5] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates for the sixth consecutive time, contributing to expectations of further policy easing from other central banks, which indirectly supports the dollar's strength [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has further bolstered the dollar, with officials still anticipating two rate cuts this year, despite warnings from the Fed Chair not to overemphasize this outlook [6] - Concerns over tariffs and their impact on costs, corporate profit margins, and overall growth continue to weigh on the dollar, which has declined approximately 9% year-to-date [8] - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the dollar is being tested by various factors, including trade policies, rising fiscal deficits, and challenges to US global leadership [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bullish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The June interest - rate meeting of the Federal Reserve was hawkish. Despite the rising stagflation pressure in the US economy, due to high concern about inflation, the Fed chose to continue monitoring, and the forward interest - rate guidance tended to suppress inflation expectations. Therefore, the US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [1][18][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. FOMC June Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the interest - rate level as expected, but the number of expected future interest - rate cuts decreased, weakening market risk appetite and causing a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [1][7] - The description of the economy indicated that economic activity continued to expand, and the unemployment rate remained low, but the change from "stable" to "maintained" in the description of the unemployment rate suggested a weakening labor market [1][7] - The Fed's view on the long - term economy showed less uncertainty, and the pressure of further expanding stagflation was reduced, with a marginal increase in optimism about the short - term economic trend [1][7] - Economic forecasts showed that the GDP growth rate in 2024 was expected to be only 1.4%, and the inflation rate would reach 3%. Compared with the March forecast, the GDP growth rate was lowered by 0.3 percentage points, and the PCE and core PCE were both raised by 0.3 percentage points, indicating rising short - term stagflation pressure [9] - The interest - rate dot plot showed that the number of expected interest - rate cuts in 2025 remained unchanged, but only one cut was expected in 2026 and 2027. The number of Fed officials who thought no cuts were needed increased to 7, indicating a hawkish stance [9] - Powell's press conference was hawkish. The Fed was highly concerned about inflation and optimistic about the US economic fundamentals [18] 2. Investment Advice - The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [2][19]