Core Insights - The article highlights that the Gold ETF (518880) has been selected as a core asset in the physical asset category for the 2026 "Betting on China" list, reflecting its significance in the current investment landscape [2][3]. Selection Logic and Analysis - In 2025, global financial market volatility increased, leading to a historic bull market for gold, with London spot gold prices rising over 67% to exceed $4,400 per ounce, marking it as the best-performing asset class globally [3]. - The demand for gold as a "credit hedge tool" has intensified due to the emphasis on asset safety and wealth preservation in the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing gold's triple attributes of anti-inflation, risk aversion, and asset allocation [3]. - The domestic Gold ETF market surged from 73 billion yuan to 236.1 billion yuan in 2025, a 223% increase, effectively meeting market demand for risk aversion and asset allocation [3]. Competitive Barriers - The unique asset attributes of gold create an irreplaceable advantage, as it is the only asset class that combines commodity, financial, and currency properties, making it a core tool for hedging credit risk [7]. - Gold ETFs offer superior liquidity and convenience, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2025, allowing investors to enter and exit the market quickly [7]. - The management fee for Gold ETFs is generally below 0.5%, significantly lower than that of actively managed funds and physical gold, reducing the entry barrier for investors [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold reserves are limited to 59,000 tons, with current mining rates only sustainable for 19 years, providing long-term support for gold prices [8]. - In 2025, central banks net purchased 244 tons of gold, continuing a trend of over 1,000 tons for four consecutive years, driven by both central bank purchases and investment demand [8]. Industry Trends - The ongoing global liquidity easing cycle, initiated by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, is expected to continue into 2026, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [11]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising tensions in the Middle East, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. - The demand for gold is further supported by the need for risk diversification among investors, as gold has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it an effective stabilizer in investment portfolios [12]. Investment Value Analysis - Gold's anti-inflation property serves as a hedge against currency depreciation, with a projected inflation rate of 4.5% in the U.S. for 2025, making gold a classic tool for preserving asset value [14]. - Gold's unique characteristics make it a "ultimate safe asset" in extreme scenarios, outperforming other safe-haven assets during market turmoil [14]. - Including Gold ETFs in investment portfolios can enhance overall returns, especially during economic downturns, where average returns on gold have been significantly higher than domestic stocks and bonds [15]. 2026 Investment Outlook - The core logic supporting gold's price increase—liquidity easing, weakened dollar credit, central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks—remains unchanged for 2026, suggesting a continued upward trend in gold prices [16]. - Predictions indicate that COMEX gold prices may reach between $4,750 and $4,900 per ounce in 2026, with potential to challenge $5,200 per ounce [16]. - The Gold ETF (518880) is positioned to benefit directly from rising gold prices, offering substantial asset appreciation opportunities for investors [16]. Conclusion - The Gold ETF (518880) is recognized as a composite core asset that transcends ordinary investment categories, providing hedging against inflation, risk aversion, and asset optimization [19]. - Investing in Gold ETFs represents a strategic opportunity to capitalize on the ongoing trends of global liquidity easing, credit system restructuring, and asset allocation upgrades in 2026 [19].

黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价波动放大。伦敦现货黄金收于4，333美元/盎司（周环比-4.4%），国内AU9999黄金收于975元/ 克（周环比-3.5%）。 美国袭击委内瑞拉，地缘紧张局势有望利好黄金。当地时间1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模空 袭，逮捕该国总统马杜罗及其夫人，并寻求扶植亲美政权。美国此举的核心经济动机或在于控制委内瑞 拉丰厚的石油矿产资源，其拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量；而更深层次的地缘战略在于践行"特朗普 版门罗主义"，意图确立西半球绝对主导权，对其他拉美左翼国家形成威慑。全球百年未有之大变局 下，逆全球化与地缘冲突不断，地缘政治的不确定性有望促使更多避险资金涌向黄金。 上周黄金的回调主要源于白银波动加剧的外溢效应。白银在今年下半年尤其是近一个多月呈现飙涨态 势，不乏多头逼空等交易型因素，但近期芝商所提高保证金要求的消息加剧了波动性。12月12日，芝商 所首次将白银保证金上调10%。随后在12月29日收盘后，再次全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种 的履约保证金。12月26日，上海期货交易所将黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，并相应 上调交易保证金比例。这些举措反映 ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价延续强势，国际金价站上4500美元再创历史新高，国内AU9999重回1000关口。伦敦现货黄金 收于4，533美元/盎司（周环比4.4%），国内AU9999黄金收于1，007元/克（周环比3.4%）。 美国GDP超市场预期。美国三季度实际GDP年化季环比初值为4.3%，大超预期的3.3%和前值的3.8%， 上涨的贡献主要来自消费和净出口，以及投资分项中库存拖累消除。虽然强劲的经济数据对美联储降息 预期有所扰动，但需关注到这一数据已太过时，展望四季度，从多个内需高频指标来看，就业与消费明 显走弱，四季度由于政府关门的影响将大概率表现不佳，届时降息预期有望再抬升。 美日欧等经济体仍处于宽财政阶段，财政可持续性担忧发酵。日本首相高市早苗于12月25日宣布了总额 高达122.3万亿日元的2026财年预算案，创下日本史上最高预算纪录。根据IMF2025年的统计，日本政 府债务占GDP的比例高达229.6%，在发达经济体中最高。近期在日本加息的背景下，日元仍持续贬 值，反映了市场对日本债务可持续性的担忧。与此同时，美欧等发达经济体也处于财政扩张中，债务负 担加剧信用危机，在此背景下黄 ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价平稳上涨，逼近历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于4，341美元/盎司（周环比1.0%），国内AU9999 黄金收于976元/克（周环比1.2%）。 美国通胀超预期下行，或利好降息。11月CPI同比2.7%，低于预期的3.1%；核心CPI同比2.6%，低于预 期的3.0%，创下21年以来新低。大幅低于预期的通胀数据为美联储降息提供了条件，或推高市场对于 后续降息的预期。但10月政府停摆或导致数据统计失真，需等待12月CPI的发布以进一步印证。基准假 设下关税对通胀的影响仍是一次性的，在高基数下预计26年美国通胀将进入下行通道。 美国就业市场整体平淡，不好不坏。11月美国新增非农6.4万人，10月新增非农10.5万人，均高于预期， 但8月和9月合计下修3.3万；11月美国失业率上升至4.6%，高于预期和前值，创四年来新高。但由于政 府停摆，失业率统计的回复率较低导致准确度不佳，而新增非农的统计更可靠，因此市场并未定价就业 衰退，需等待12月质量更高的就业数据。 美联储新任主席之争仍在演进。目前，特朗普仍正面试多名候选人，局势仍在演变之中。先前被视为领 跑者的哈塞特近期支持率下滑，前美 ...

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing increased adjustment pressure, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases due to limited rebound heights and accelerated sector rotation [6] - It is suggested to wait for better layout opportunities rather than frequent trial and error in timing [6] Style Strategy - Defensive strategies are emphasized as year-end approaches, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for medium-term timing [3] - The gold sector is expected to benefit from a decline in dollar credit, leading to potential price increases [3] Theme Strategy - The special steel industry is anticipated to undergo high-quality development due to expected cost declines and new import-export management regulations [4] - The implementation of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure and enhance domestic profitability [6] Investment Opportunities - Investment targets include Chifeng Gold (600988, Buy) and Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) as they are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [6]

上周金价平稳上涨。伦敦现货黄金收于4，299美元/盎司（周环比2.4%），国内AU9999黄金收于964元/ 克（周环比1.0%）。 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 12月美联储议息会议如期降息25bp，但联储内部对于后续降息节奏的分歧较大，本次利率决议共有三个 反对票，联储理事米兰认为应降息50bp，两位地方联储主席主张不降息。 点阵图中值指示明年仍有1次降息。预期26年降息0-1-2-3-4次的委员分别为4-4-4-2-1人，另有1人（预计 为米兰）预期应大幅降息6次，还有3人预期26年应加息1次。点阵图分布更加离散，显示联储内部分歧 较大。 发布会上鲍威尔主席表态偏鸽，更为关注就业下行风险，认为通胀风险逐渐缓解。其认为政策利率处于 中性利率估计范围，联储可以边走边看，并不急于降息。就业方面，其认为就业市场仍在降温，新增就 业被系统性高估；人工智能可能是就业疲软的原因之一，但其影响程度并不大。通胀方面，其认为若无 新增关税，关税对通胀的影响可能会在26Q1见顶，明年下半年通胀将有所回落。 在经济展望中，美联储上修了经济增长、下修失业率和PCE通胀预期。在政府重新开门、财政货币双宽 松、AI投资强劲以及关税通胀效 ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价窄幅震荡。伦敦现货黄金收于4，197美元/盎司（周环比-0.5%），国内AU9999黄金收于957元/ 克（周环比0.9%）。 12月5日白宫发布《美国国家安全战略》，进一步强调"美国优先"，或加剧逆全球化趋势。该文件坚守 美国本位主义，"聚焦本土安全、重塑半球主导、调整全球义务"，将美国的持续生存与安全置于首位， 但放弃了"永久主导世界"目标，逐步退出全球事务。此外，文件将"贸易平衡"列为经济安全的重要方 向，美国将优先重塑贸易关系，削减贸易逆差。在美国优先理念下，贸易保护主义或持续，逆全球化或 将损害美元的国际地位，黄金的货币价值进一步凸显。 美联储仍处于降息大周期之中。北京时间12月11日凌晨2点将迎来美联储12月利率决议，当前利率期货 显示，市场预期12月降息25bp的概率达88%，届时还需关注联储对明年降息节奏的指引。 数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2025/12/5 品情况及听取销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金 投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：江钰涵 Ø ...

Market Strategy - The A-share market is currently experiencing adjustments, showing a weak oscillating trend, with expectations not significantly improving and index heights being limited [7] - In December, the overall performance of various asset classes is expected to be stable, with a neutral to slightly bullish outlook on stocks, commodities, and gold, while bonds and US stocks are neutral [7] - The report suggests focusing on mid-cap blue chips, which are undervalued and have lower institutional allocation, as well as sectors with improving marginal prosperity [7] Industry Strategy - The non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors are expected to maintain strong performance, while opportunities exist in agriculture and chemicals [4][7] - The industry is undergoing a market-driven and policy-supported capacity reduction phase, with a left-side layout window potentially emerging [7] - The current pig price has dropped to 11 yuan per kilogram, leading to widespread losses in the industry, which is expected to force high-cost production capacity to exit, setting a solid foundation for future price stabilization [7] Thematic Strategy - In agriculture, the accelerated reduction of pig stocks presents a left-side layout opportunity, with expectations of a cyclical rebound once the capacity reduction is solidified [5][7] - The report emphasizes that the valuation of the agriculture sector is at historical lows, indicating a potential entry point for investors [7]

黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价稳步上行。伦敦现货黄金收于4，219美元/盎司（周环比3.8%），国内AU9999黄金收于948元/ 克（周环比2.3%）。 上周公布的美国零售不及预期。美国9月零售销售环比0.2%，低于预期0.4%和前值0.6%，表明就业市场 的疲软逐步蔓延至消费领域，对降息形成支撑。 近期多位联储官员公开支持降息。上周联储理事沃勒、米兰和旧金山联储主席戴利均表态呼吁降息，均 认为就业恶化的风险高于通胀反弹风险，关税对通胀的影响有限且一次性。美联储12月10日将公布最新 的利率决议，本周美联储将进入议息会议前的噤声期。当前利率期货显示，市场预期12月降息25bp的概 率达87%，相较此前进一步上升。 展望后市，美联储仍处于降息大周期，且特朗普可能在圣诞节前公布新任美联储主席人选，若鸽派主席 任选，美联储降息节奏或更加激进，有望利好黄金。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债偿本付 息压力下的信用风险延续，全球央行持续购买黄金以分散外汇储备。货币财政双宽松的趋势下，仍看好 黄金中长期配置价值。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价稳步上行。伦敦现货黄金收于4，21 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have increased by 0.74%, reaching $4006 per ounce as of 16:22 [1] - Gold ETFs (518880) closed with a gain of 0.43%, with a real-time transaction volume of 3.748 billion [1] - Gold stock ETFs (159321) closed with a gain of 0.55% [1] Group 2 - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.343 trillion, up from $3.339 trillion at the end of September [1] - China's gold reserves at the end of October were reported at 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2304.457 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) month-on-month, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 3 - Huayuan Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, with two more cuts anticipated within the year, although there are internal disagreements on the extent of the cuts [2] - The change in U.S. monetary policy is expected to support gold prices, with a recommendation to focus on phase-based allocation opportunities [2] - Long-term factors such as interest rate cuts and policies from former President Trump are expected to drive gold prices higher, with central bank purchases providing a bottom support [2] Group 4 - Strong global demand for gold and continuous central bank purchases are driving gold prices [2] - A leading gold company is set to list in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance the valuation of the precious metals sector [2] - The precious metals industry maintains a positive outlook rating [2]