黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 春节期间一系列宏观事件与地缘风险交织，推动金价上行。春节期间伦敦现货黄金上涨3.64%，收于5,226美元/盎司。（统计区间为2026.2.14 至2026.2.23） 中东紧张局势延续，谈判与军事对峙并行。美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于2月26日在日内瓦举行。但与此同时，美国在中东地区大规模集结兵 力，美军最大航母抵达东地中海重要基地，多架美军机降落以色列。特朗普被曝考虑对伊朗进行"初步打击"，若外交手段失败，未来数月可 能发动更大规模军事行动。伊方回应也较强硬，伊朗外交部发言人明确表示，不存在所谓"初步打击"，任何攻击都将被视作侵略，发起者将 承担后果。地缘风险的大幅抬升促使避险资金涌入黄金，而2月26日美伊谈判结果将是节后市场关注的焦点。 美国此前对全球加征的对等关税被判违法。美东时间2月20日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）在全球实 施的关税超出总统权限，被判违宪。此裁决将导致此前特朗普基于IEEPA征收的"芬太尼关税"与"对等关税"作废，但不影响基于《贸易扩展 法》第232条（针对特定行业）和《贸易法》第301条（针对特定国家）征收的关税。 针对上 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.96% [1] - Shipbuilding, aerospace, and semiconductors showed the highest gains, while small metals, photovoltaic equipment, and shipping ports collectively retreated [1] ETF Performance - The top five ETFs by increase were: - France CAC40 ETF (513080) up 3.11% - China-Korea Semiconductor ETF (513310) up 2.35% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (589020) up 2.32% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) up 2.21% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) up 2.14% [1] - The top five ETFs by decrease were: - Oil and Gas ETF (561760) down 3.63% - Oil ETF (561360) down 3.60% - Oil and Gas ETF (159309) down 3.58% - Oil and Gas ETF (561570) down 3.50% - Oil ETF (159697) down 3.30% [1] ETF Trading Volume - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included: - A500 ETF Fund (512050) with a volume of 9.776 billion - A500 ETF Huatai-PB (563360) with 7.270 billion - CSI A500 ETF (159338) with 5.846 billion - A500 ETF Southern (159352) with 5.665 billion - Gold ETF (518880) with 4.225 billion - A500 ETF E Fund (159361) with 3.106 billion - Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) with 3.105 billion - Hong Kong Securities ETF E Fund (513090) with 2.785 billion - CSI 500 ETF (510500) with 2.601 billion - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with 2.303 billion [2]

ETF成交额方面，今日排行榜前十分别为：A500ETF基金（512050）141.83亿元、黄金ETF（518880） 124.18亿元、A500ETF华泰柏瑞（563360）98.36亿元、中证A500ETF（159338）68.86亿元、A500ETF 南方（159352）65.32亿元、香港证券ETF易方达（513090）61.94亿元、恒生科技ETF（513130）49.94 亿元、中证500ETF（510500）49.72亿元、恒生科技指数ETF（513180）45.53亿元、中韩半导体ETF （513310）39.08亿元。（备注：剔除了货币ETF和债券ETF） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 跌幅前五名分别为：能源化工ETF建信（159981）下跌0.08%、基本面ETF建信（159916）下跌0.07%、 货币ETF嘉实（511960）下跌0.01%、华宝添益ETF（511 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate, with London spot gold closing at $4,967 per ounce (up 1.8% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 1,094 yuan per gram (down 6.9% week-on-week) [1] - Japan's fiscal expansion trend is expected to continue, potentially exacerbating its debt burden, as the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida secured a significant majority in the recent House of Representatives election, allowing for more aggressive fiscal policies [1] - The market is gradually digesting the expectations of a "hawkish" stance from the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, while recognizing the potential for a "dovish" outcome in the long term due to political and fiscal pressures [1] Group 2 - Upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data are crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with the January non-farm payroll report delayed to February 11 and CPI data to February 13 [2] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, maintaining a steady accumulation pace, with reserves expected to reach 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, reflecting a trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves amid the weakening dollar credit system [2] - The macro structural factors supporting gold remain intact, including ongoing central bank demand for gold amid de-dollarization, the erosion of the dollar's long-term credibility due to "fiscal dominance" policies, and systemic risks from a fragmented global geopolitical landscape [3] Group 3 - Key signals for gold investment in the coming week include the U.S. January employment data and CPI [4] - Related investment products include gold ETFs and various colored metal ETFs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant drop on February 6, 2026, with international gold prices plummeting from $5023 per ounce to $4774, marking a nearly 4.75% decline, the largest single-day drop in 40 years [1][3]. Market Phenomenon - Global gold prices fell sharply, with London gold dropping from $5020 to $4783, a daily fluctuation exceeding 4.7%, closing at $4773.08 per ounce, down $237.85 from the previous day [3]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold T+D prices fell to 1081.66 yuan per gram, with significant volatility observed [3]. - The price of physical gold also decreased, with major brands adjusting their prices to 1555-1568 yuan per gram, while the recovery price dropped to 1070 yuan per gram, creating a price gap of nearly 200 yuan [3]. - The market showed a disparity in pricing, with wholesale gold bar prices in Shenzhen remaining at 1261 yuan per gram, while recovery prices fell significantly [3]. Causes of the Plunge - The primary trigger for the drop was a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy signals, with unexpectedly strong initial jobless claims data leading to a sharp decline in expectations for interest rate cuts [6]. - Technical breakdowns exacerbated the situation, as the London gold price fell below the critical psychological level of $4900, triggering automated sell orders and a vicious cycle of selling [6]. - Easing geopolitical risks, such as developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The substantial profit accumulated during the previous price rise also contributed to the sell-off as investors sought to cash in [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts are divided on the implications of the price drop. Some, like Citic Securities, believe the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, driven by liquidity expectations [8]. - Others caution about short-term risks, with UBS raising its gold price target to $6200 per ounce while warning of potential downward risks from a hawkish Fed [8]. - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank maintain a target of $6000 per ounce, viewing the current adjustment as a buying opportunity [8]. Investor Response - Investor strategies have diverged, with some opting to cash out, leading to long queues at gold recovery stores [10]. - Others are taking advantage of lower prices to buy gold, indicating a belief in its long-term value [10]. - Analysts recommend cautious approaches, such as dollar-cost averaging, to mitigate risks associated with high leverage [10]. Market Ecology - The current gold market exhibits a unique dual trend of high recovery and purchasing activity [12]. - Recovery channels have diversified, with banks, brand stores, pawn shops, and online platforms all participating, though with varying price structures [12]. - Despite price fluctuations, demand for gold remains strong ahead of the Chinese New Year, reflecting its perceived value as both an investment and a gift [12]. - This duality in market behavior highlights differing perspectives on gold's value, with some investors focused on short-term gains while others prioritize long-term stability [12].

此外，地缘政治风险的演变也在微妙地影响市场情绪。上周，美伊紧张局势出现了新的动向。一方面， 双方言辞对抗激烈，美国向中东增派航母战斗群，伊朗则宣布在霍尔木兹海峡举行军演，将战争风险溢 价推至高位。另一方面，有消息显示，双方可能进行了后台接触，这又让市场对局势立即失控的担忧略 有缓解。 本轮回撤的根本原因，是黄金前期的交易过热与拥挤。我们此前已多次提示，黄金市场的技术指标已发 出严重过热信号，黄金期权隐含波动率已上升至历史极端位置，意味着波动率的放大、市场随时可能因 风吹草动而大幅回撤。国内外交易所近期上调保证金比例，正是试图为市场降温的明确信号。 本轮回撤的直接导火索，是美联储主席更迭引发的政策预期恐慌。上周五凯文·沃什被正式提名为下一 任美联储主席，尽管其政策主张复杂（支持降息但主张大幅缩表），但市场第一时间将其标签为"偏鹰 派"。这一提名被广泛解读为美联储可能转向更具纪律性的政策路径，美联储独立性担忧大大缓和，直 接动摇了支撑前期金价狂飙的核心逻辑之一——对流动性持续泛滥和通胀失控的预期。市场担忧未 来"降息+缩表"的组合会收紧美元流动性，从而打压以美元计价的黄金。 但沃什的政策主张并非简单的"鹰派"或" ...

来源：新浪基金 Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 金价近期频创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于4，981美元/盎司（周环比8.3%），国内AU9999黄金收于 1，110元/克（周环比7.7%）。1月26日亚市早盘，国际现货和期货黄金价格均历史性突破5000美元/盎 司整数关口，为史上首次站上这一关键心理价位。 全球正在经历的传统秩序加速瓦解带来的剧烈阵痛，地缘政治动荡、财政信任危机与全球央行持续 的"去美元化"行动三重动力，共同推动了金价的飙涨。 日本国债的历史性抛售，暴露了全球对债务信用的深层次担忧。日本首相高市早苗上周的财政刺激言 论，引发市场对日本财政可持续性的深度担忧，导致日债遭遇历史性抛售，40年期国债收益率一度突破 4%。其本质是市场对发达经济体"财政主导"政策转向的恐慌。它不仅暴露了日本自身的债务困境，更 通过全球套息交易平仓的链条，将恐慌情绪传染至美债市场，引发全球债市共振。这加剧了投资者对所 有法币主权信用根基的疑虑，黄金的"信用对冲"属性被急剧放大。 全球央行购金趋势延续。在地缘与信用风险发酵的同时，全球央行的行动为黄金提供了坚实的需求侧支 撑和制度性叙事。波兰央行批准了150吨的大规模购金计划， ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 金价近期频创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于4，599美元/盎司（周环比2.0%），国内AU9999黄金收于 1，033元/克（周环比3.0%）。本周一开盘后，国内外金价大幅跳涨超1%，再创历史新高。 近期地缘不确定因素增多，避险资金或涌入黄金。其一是格陵兰岛归属问题的争端。特朗普近期宣布， 将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并 宣称加征的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相关方就美国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。为 予以反制，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税。其二是伊朗局势的不确定性。 此前特朗普警告，伊朗若继续镇压抗议者将面临"严重后果"，军事准备、外交斡旋与制裁压力仍在推 进。百年未有之大变局下，全球传统秩序趋于崩溃，避险情绪或利好黄金。 美国12月CPI低于预期，为美联储降息打开空间。12月CPI同比为2.7%，核心CPI同比2.6%，均低于市场 预期，核心CPI增速创下2021年3月以来新低。数据出炉后，市场加大对提前降息的押注，4月降息概率 小幅提升。基准假设下关税对通胀的影响仍是一次性 ...

美联储独立性危机仍在发酵。美国司法部正对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，重点审查美联储总部的 翻修工程的相关问题。这或是特朗普对鲍威尔施压的又一举措，此前特朗普多次要求鲍威尔大幅降低利 率，并以解雇作为威胁。国会授予美联储独立制定利率的权力，旨在使其免受政治干预，专注于低通胀 和劳动力市场健康。然而特朗普的频频干预导致美联储独立性受损，或损害美元信用。此外特朗普上周 表示，他已选定接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的人选，预计很快会公布决定。 中国央行连续第14个月购金。从2024年11月至2025年12月，每月保持稳定增持节奏。1月7日，央行公布 数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，较11月末的7412万盎司增加3万盎司，为 连续第14个月增持黄金，体现美元信用体系瓦解背景下，各国央行分散外汇储备、买黄金卖美债的趋势 或延续。 近期全球地缘冲突频发，避险资金或涌向黄金。委内瑞拉事件仍在发酵，此外美国还在考虑攻击伊朗的 多种方案，以及尝试吞并格陵兰岛。国际局势变数仍存，全球传统秩序趋于崩溃，避险情绪或利好黄 金。 Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价强势上涨。伦敦现货黄金收于4，509美元/ ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that the Gold ETF (518880) has been selected as a core asset in the physical asset category for the 2026 "Betting on China" list, reflecting its significance in the current investment landscape [2][3]. Selection Logic and Analysis - In 2025, global financial market volatility increased, leading to a historic bull market for gold, with London spot gold prices rising over 67% to exceed $4,400 per ounce, marking it as the best-performing asset class globally [3]. - The demand for gold as a "credit hedge tool" has intensified due to the emphasis on asset safety and wealth preservation in the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing gold's triple attributes of anti-inflation, risk aversion, and asset allocation [3]. - The domestic Gold ETF market surged from 73 billion yuan to 236.1 billion yuan in 2025, a 223% increase, effectively meeting market demand for risk aversion and asset allocation [3]. Competitive Barriers - The unique asset attributes of gold create an irreplaceable advantage, as it is the only asset class that combines commodity, financial, and currency properties, making it a core tool for hedging credit risk [7]. - Gold ETFs offer superior liquidity and convenience, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2025, allowing investors to enter and exit the market quickly [7]. - The management fee for Gold ETFs is generally below 0.5%, significantly lower than that of actively managed funds and physical gold, reducing the entry barrier for investors [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold reserves are limited to 59,000 tons, with current mining rates only sustainable for 19 years, providing long-term support for gold prices [8]. - In 2025, central banks net purchased 244 tons of gold, continuing a trend of over 1,000 tons for four consecutive years, driven by both central bank purchases and investment demand [8]. Industry Trends - The ongoing global liquidity easing cycle, initiated by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, is expected to continue into 2026, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [11]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising tensions in the Middle East, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. - The demand for gold is further supported by the need for risk diversification among investors, as gold has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it an effective stabilizer in investment portfolios [12]. Investment Value Analysis - Gold's anti-inflation property serves as a hedge against currency depreciation, with a projected inflation rate of 4.5% in the U.S. for 2025, making gold a classic tool for preserving asset value [14]. - Gold's unique characteristics make it a "ultimate safe asset" in extreme scenarios, outperforming other safe-haven assets during market turmoil [14]. - Including Gold ETFs in investment portfolios can enhance overall returns, especially during economic downturns, where average returns on gold have been significantly higher than domestic stocks and bonds [15]. 2026 Investment Outlook - The core logic supporting gold's price increase—liquidity easing, weakened dollar credit, central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks—remains unchanged for 2026, suggesting a continued upward trend in gold prices [16]. - Predictions indicate that COMEX gold prices may reach between $4,750 and $4,900 per ounce in 2026, with potential to challenge $5,200 per ounce [16]. - The Gold ETF (518880) is positioned to benefit directly from rising gold prices, offering substantial asset appreciation opportunities for investors [16]. Conclusion - The Gold ETF (518880) is recognized as a composite core asset that transcends ordinary investment categories, providing hedging against inflation, risk aversion, and asset optimization [19]. - Investing in Gold ETFs represents a strategic opportunity to capitalize on the ongoing trends of global liquidity easing, credit system restructuring, and asset allocation upgrades in 2026 [19].