Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： Ø 人民币计价黄金与国际金价走势比较： 数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2025/9/26 风险提示：敬请投资人关注投资黄金主题基金的特有风险，如黄金市场波动的风险、基金投资组合回报 与国内黄金现货价格回报偏离的风险、上海黄金交易所黄金现货市场投资风险等主要风险。基金管理公 司不保证上述基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益，基金过往业绩不能预示未来收益。我国基金运作时间 较短，不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，风险自担。投资人在投资基金前应认 真阅读《基金合同》和《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产 品情况及听取销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金 投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 上周金价延续上涨，再创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于3，759美元/盎司（周环比2.0%），国内AU9999 黄金收于853元/克（周环比3.3%）。 关税风波再起，后续仍或有行业关税出台。当地时间9月25日，美国总统特朗普宣布，自10月1日起，美 国将对多类进口产品实施 ...

上海证券表示，黄金长期看多逻辑并未改变，后续可能进一步向上突破。我们认为全球去美元化、美联 储步入降息周期等黄金长期上涨的大逻辑并没有改变，如果时间拉长，黄金有望进一步向上突破。但是 这需要有新的变量发生，比如美国就业形势或通胀水平超预期下滑导致美联储态度进一步转鸽，或者特 朗普通过美联储理事人员变动成功对美联储施压，美联储超预期转鸽等等。 国新证券表示，黄金资产受去美元化趋势推动，央行持续购金提供长期支撑。短期非农数据下修及降息 预期增强市场避险情绪，金价上涨动力充沛。白银正从工业配角转向价值主角，投资逻辑由工业需求爆 发和金融属性觉醒共同驱动。AI与5G技术迭代或扩大供需缺口，金银比修复预期下，白银相较黄金具 补涨潜力。整体而言，黄金和白银资产在多重因素作用下，展现出较强的投资吸引力。 9月22日，黄金ETF（518880）收涨1.90%，当日午后成交额持续扩大，截至收盘超36亿元。同时，黄 金股票ETF（159321）当日午后亦震荡走高，收涨3.39%。 昨日黄金相关ETF表现走强，或受贵金属市场的价格走势影响。据Wind数据，9月22日盘中，现货黄金 再创纪录高位；当日现货白银盘中突破前高，创2011 ...

华安黄金ETF成立于2013年7月18日，是国内首批黄金ETF之一，由经验丰富的基金经理许之彦管理。 该基金以国内黄金现货价格收益率为业绩比较基准，凭借其先发优势与稳健运作，已成为投资者配置黄 金资产的重要工具。投资者除可直接交易华安黄金ETF（518880）外，也可通过其联接基金（A类： 000216，C类：000217）以申购、定投等方式参与。 风险提示：基金投资存在风险，投资者应谨慎决策。黄金价格波动可能导致基金净值变动，请基于自身 风险承受能力理性投资。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 9月22日，A股三大股指涨跌互现，黄金ETF（518880）表现亮眼，午盘涨1.25%，收报7.997元，换手率 2.61%，半日成交额16.36亿元，居同类标的ETF首位。 从资金流向来看，黄金ETF（518880）近期资金流动呈现不同态势。近5个交易日，资金净流出4.5亿 元；而近10个交易日资金净流入13.21亿元，近20个交易日资金净流入10.78亿元。截至2025年9月19日， 该基金流通规模达620.22亿元。 | 代码 名称 | 现价 涨跌幅 IOPV 溢折率 換手率 ...

尽管通胀亦有所上升，但当前美联储的政策天平更倾向于呵护就业。 本次决议投票中，仅新就职理事Miran投下反对票，其认为应降息50bp，鸽派明显。 美联储经济展望： 美联储预期本轮降息将较为有效地提振经济增长、促进就业，进一步暗示本轮"预防式降息"周期的幅 度或有限。 专题：美联储如期降息25个基点 鲍威尔坚称通胀仍处相对高位 9月美联储议息会议如期降息25bp，华安基金表示，政策天平倾向于呵护就业，点阵图指示年内仍有2次 降息。但联储主席在发布会上的表态偏鹰，导致大类资产走势反复，美元指数和美债利率走出V型，黄 金先涨后跌，美股也是下跌后有所反弹。（数据来源：Wind，截至2025/9/18） 决议声明： 美联储如期降息25BP，至4.0%-4.25%的利率区间。 强调就业的下行风险，在声明中表示"就业增长有所放缓，失业率有所抬升但仍较低"。 GDP预测上修：2025-2027年的预测均上修。 失业率预测上修：2026、2027年的预测均下修0.1%。 通胀预测基本不变：仅2026年的PCE预测上修0.2%。 鲍威尔发布会表态： 鲍威尔指出本次降息是一次"风险管理式"降息，表述整体偏鹰，未来降息决策仍取决于后 ...

上周金价延续上涨，再创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于3，643美元/盎司（周环比1.6%），国内AU9999 黄金收于830元/克（周环比2.3%）。 Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： Ø 人民币计价黄金与国际金价走势比较： 数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2025/9/12 风险提示：敬请投资人关注投资黄金主题基金的特有风险，如黄金市场波动的风险、基金投资组合回报 与国内黄金现货价格回报偏离的风险、上海黄金交易所黄金现货市场投资风险等主要风险。基金管理公 司不保证上述基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益，基金过往业绩不能预示未来收益。我国基金运作时间 较短，不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，风险自担。投资人在投资基金前应认 真阅读《基金合同》和《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产 品情况及听取销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金 投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。 美国8月通胀温和上涨，基本符合预期。上周四，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国8月CPI同比 2.9%，持平预期，较前值2.7%小幅回升。美国8月CPI环比0.4 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have reached new historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3600 per ounce and spot gold exceeding $3545 per ounce, marking a continuous rise for seven trading days [1] - Silver futures also hit historical highs, with COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest level since 2012 [1] - Domestic gold and silver contracts in China have shown significant increases, with the main contract for silver reaching 9824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33%, and gold at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% [1] Group 2 - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as a major factor driving gold prices higher, with market expectations for a rate cut in September contributing to a weaker dollar and increased gold attractiveness [1][2] - Several institutions have raised their gold price targets, with Morgan Stanley projecting $3800 per ounce by year-end and Bank of America forecasting $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [2] - A-share gold concept stocks have performed strongly, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Western Gold seeing significant price increases, and the overall performance of gold ETFs in the domestic market has been robust [2] Group 3 - The ongoing rise in gold prices is expected to improve the profit outlook for gold companies, sustaining the bullish market and enhancing company valuations [3] - Western Gold reported a 69.01% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of the year, reaching 5.03 billion yuan, and a 131.94% increase in net profit, amounting to 154 million yuan [3] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a reallocation of funds back into gold, driven by the Federal Reserve's signals of potential rate cuts [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a pullback last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,335 per ounce (down 1.9% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 774 yuan per gram (down 1.2% week-on-week) [1] - U.S. inflation continues to rise, with July CPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, reaching a new high since February [1] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 to 23 will be crucial, with a focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which may pave the way for interest rate cuts in September [1] Group 2 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts could benefit gold, especially given the current high interest rates and debt levels leading to increased costs for U.S. government debt [2] - The upcoming week will see key signals for gold ETFs, including Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, results from the U.S. semiconductor and pharmaceutical 232 investigations, and July inflation data [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a steady increase last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,399 per ounce (up 1.1% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 783 yuan per gram (up 2.1% week-on-week) [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 7,396 million ounces (approximately 2,300.41 tons) by the end of July, with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) [1] - The decline in the international credibility of the US dollar, exacerbated by the "exceptionalism" narrative and the US debt credit crisis, has led to a global trend of central banks increasing gold holdings while reducing dollar assets [1] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on the US economy is becoming evident, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider resuming interest rate cuts; additionally, August will see a peak in US debt issuance, with high interest costs further burdening the US government [2] - The upcoming week will focus on key signals for gold ETFs, including the US-Russia summit on August 15, the results of the 232 investigation into US semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs, and US inflation data for July [2]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices fell to $65.76 and Brent to $68.28, both down over 2% due to OPEC+ increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day, completing its reduction exit plan a year early, leading to a historical oversupply of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as potential U.S. tariffs on Russian oil purchased by India, are seen as ineffective in significantly impacting oil supply, with analysts skeptical about the actual enforcement of sanctions [3] - The oil price is expected to stabilize between $65-$70 in Q3, with a potential drop to $55 in Q4 due to cumulative effects of OPEC production increases and seasonal demand decline [3] Group 2: Copper Market Surge - LME copper prices increased by 0.6% following a tariff exemption from Trump, leading to a surge in inventory in New York by 400,000 tons, while Asian stocks dwindled to a 10-day warning level [4] - A mining accident in Chile has eliminated 25% of a major company's production capacity, contributing to a global copper inventory drop to 350,000 tons, creating a potential short squeeze in the market [4] - Long-term demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to electric vehicles and renewable energy, with Goldman Sachs predicting copper prices to exceed $10,050 per ton by August and a supply gap of 3 million tons by 2030 [4] Group 3: Gold Price Stability - Spot gold prices rose by 0.4%, with futures reaching $3,426, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to disappointing U.S. employment data [5] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 94%, which typically drives investment towards safe-haven assets like gold [5] - The Federal Reserve's internal changes and signals of accelerated rate cuts have reinforced bullish sentiment for gold, with technical support seen at $3,400-$3,450 [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For oil, a strategy is to target upstream oil service companies and refining leaders if prices hit $55 in Q4, capitalizing on equipment upgrades and margin expansion [6] - In copper, focus on resource companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are less volatile than pure futures trading [7] - For gold, a dollar-cost averaging strategy into gold ETFs and mining stocks is recommended, increasing positions by 3% on price dips before the Fed's rate cut [8]

Group 1 - The global liquidity turning point has been reached, and a new round of market trends in A-shares is potentially on the horizon [1][9] - International capital has already sensed this change, with $3 billion flowing into overseas China ETFs on July 29, 80% of which went to A50 index constituents [3] - Global funds have shifted their allocation to Chinese stocks from underweight to overweight, with an increase of 1.2 percentage points [3] Group 2 - The release of the July non-farm payroll data caused significant market reactions, with the June data being revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, a correction exceeding 90% [4] - The disappointing July non-farm report, showing only 73,000 new jobs, led to a surge in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September from 40% to 82% [4][6] - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have adjusted their forecasts, predicting multiple rate cuts by the Fed [6] Group 3 - The market reacted sharply, with the dollar index dropping 1.05%, marking the largest single-day decline in three months, while international gold prices surged 1.8% to over $2,280 per ounce [6] - Despite a drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 4.7 billion yuan on August 1, focusing on brokerage and gold stocks [6][7] - In July, northbound capital's net buying reached over 60 billion yuan, with a focus on brokerages, insurance, and leading consumer stocks [6] Group 4 - The impact of rate cuts on A-shares is not uniform; historical data suggests that while the SSE 50 Index may rise, the CSI 2000 Index could fall [7] - Brokerages reported strong performance in July, with Guotai Junan's mid-year report projecting a 210% increase, leading to significant institutional buying [7] - The gold market is also seeing increased activity, with the People's Bank of China increasing gold reserves for eight consecutive months, surpassing 2,280 tons [9] Group 5 - For ordinary investors, choosing appropriate investment tools is crucial in this complex market environment, with index funds being a preferred option [9] - The CSI 300 ETF saw net subscriptions exceeding 12 billion yuan in July, with institutional holdings at 85% [9] - The brokerage ETF benefits from policy support and strong performance, with leading brokerages averaging a price-to-earnings ratio of only 12 times [9]