这场始于 10 月 1 日的停摆，创下了美国历史最长纪录，比 2018-2019 年的 35 天停摆还要久。 表面上看，政府恢复运转是好事，但背后的财政困局丝毫没解决，75 万联邦雇员的欠薪、1.5 万亿的经 济损失，还有 37 万亿的国债，都是绕不开的坎。 更关键的是，"维持军费、改善民生、消除债务" 这三件事，美国早就没法同时做到了，未来还可能给 全球经济带来更大冲击。 2025 年 11 月 12 日晚，特朗普签署临时拨款法案，持续 43 天的美国联邦政府停摆终于画上句号。 一、停摆 43 天：75 万人无薪，1.5 万亿损失触目惊心 这次停摆的直接原因很简单，国会没在 2025 财年（2024 年 10 月至 2025 年 9 月）开始前通过拨款法 案。 那会儿军工企业不仅提供了大量就业，还是钢铁、机械制造等行业的最大买家，直接助推了经济增长。 但从 20 世纪 70 年代开始，这一平衡被打破了。联邦德国和日本经济复苏，在国际市场上抢占美国份 额，美国 GDP 全球占比从 60% 跌到 35%，还出现了贸易逆差。 从 10 月 1 日到 11 月 12 日，43 天里美国政府的核心服务基本停摆，普通民 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has shut down for the first time in nearly seven years due to the Senate's failure to pass bipartisan funding bills, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and halting services across various departments [1][4] - This shutdown is part of a recurring fiscal crisis that has plagued Washington for the past 40 years, with a total of 14 government shutdowns recorded since 1980 [4][12] Economic Impact - Historical data shows that government shutdowns have resulted in significant economic losses, ranging from hundreds of millions to over a hundred billion dollars, with the 2018-2019 shutdown alone costing approximately $11 billion, of which $3 billion is unrecoverable [5][11] - Industries closely tied to federal procurement, such as tourism, aviation, and defense contracting, are particularly vulnerable, with small businesses facing cash flow issues due to halted government contracts [5][11] Systemic Issues - The U.S. budget process is characterized by its fragility and complexity, requiring Congress to pass twelve regular appropriations bills each fiscal year. Failure to do so leads to government shutdowns [12][13] - Political polarization and the influence of a minority within the parties exacerbate the budget impasse, as seen in past shutdowns where ideological differences have led to prolonged negotiations and deadlock [12][14] Future Outlook - The likelihood of a short-term shutdown followed by emergency temporary funding is high, as both parties face increasing public and market pressure to reach a compromise [14][15] - If the deadlock extends beyond two weeks, the economic repercussions could escalate, prompting a need for bipartisan intervention to resolve the crisis [15]