Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is nearing a decision on interest rate cuts due to signs of a softening job market and a lack of sustained inflation driven by tariffs [1][3] - Mary Daly indicated that while the Fed's short-term borrowing cost remains at 4.25%-4.50%, future meetings may consider policy adjustments, with a possibility of more than two rate cuts if the labor market continues to weaken [3][4] - Recent labor data showed only 73,000 new jobs added in July, with significant downward revisions to previous months, indicating potential challenges in the employment sector [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% in July, but Daly emphasized that this does not reflect extreme weakness in the job market [4] - There is no evidence that tariff-induced price increases are broadly affecting inflation, and the Fed may risk acting too late if it waits too long to ensure this is the case [4] - Daly expressed that the current policy may increasingly misalign with economic conditions, suggesting a need for adjustments to maintain downward pressure on inflation while ensuring sustainable employment [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a stable labor market overall [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, with long-term unemployment rising by 190,000 to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, highlighting challenges for certain labor groups [2] - Job growth was primarily driven by state government and healthcare sectors, with state and local government jobs adding 73,000 positions, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs in June [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July have significantly decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 18.6% to 4.7% following the strong employment data [2] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts remains uncertain, with a potential shift towards a more cautious approach in hiring observed in the private sector [2][3] - The focus may shift to U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released on July 15, as the labor market remains stable [3]