Economic Indicators - The June PCE price index in the US increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February, with the previous value also revised up to 2.8% [3] Inflation Trends - Service sector inflation is accelerating, with rising costs for durable goods also noted [4] - Prices for household goods have surged due to the impact of the trade war [6] - Healthcare costs are beginning to rise [8] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation grew by only 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the decline from the previous month [10] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest downturn since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [10] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [10] - The savings rate is steady at 4.5%, reflecting household caution amid economic uncertainty [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with rising core inflation raising concerns, while weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt calls for interest rate cuts [12] - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions [12] - Recent trade policies and potential tariffs proposed by former President Trump are viewed as risks that could further elevate inflation [12] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock index futures maintained an upward trend, while Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, indicating market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [13] - The June PCE data has intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [13]

Core Insights - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates last year [1] - The three-month annualized rate of the core PCE price index in June was 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate for the core PCE was 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced a technical rebound during the Asian trading session, stabilizing above the 100-day moving average after a significant drop [1][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, keeping the policy range at 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Strong economic data, including a 104,000 increase in private sector employment and a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, has bolstered the dollar [3][4] Group 2 - The market is focused on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are supported at the 100-day moving average (around $3,270), with a key resistance level at $3,310 [3][4] - If the core PCE index exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the dollar and put further pressure on gold prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy, highlighting the unexpected expansion of the trade deficit and the potential economic consequences as the deadline for trade negotiations approaches [1][4][11]. Trade Data Summary - As of May, the U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion, marking the highest trade deficit for the first five months of the year in history [2][5]. - The trade deficit has been primarily driven by a 5.2% decline in U.S. goods exports, which fell to $179.2 billion, the largest drop since the pandemic began [6]. - In contrast, some countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, saw their exports to the U.S. surge by approximately 35%, reaching historical highs [6]. Economic Impact - The U.S. economy experienced its first contraction since 2022, with a GDP decline of 0.5% on an annualized basis, attributed to increased imports and decreased government spending [3][14]. - The first quarter saw imports rise by 37.9%, the fastest growth since 2020, negatively impacting GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [14]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2025 [14]. Trade Negotiation Status - The U.S. has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, which remains largely a framework with many details yet to be finalized [8]. - Negotiations with other major trading partners, including Japan and India, have stalled, with concerns over potential additional tariffs hindering progress [8][9]. - The U.S. government has requested trade partners to submit their best offers amid slow negotiation progress, indicating urgency in reaching agreements [10]. Employment and Economic Risks - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating increasing job market challenges [15]. - The credit card delinquency rate reached 3.05%, the highest since 2011, while housing market pressures are mounting due to affordability and inventory issues [15]. - The World Bank forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2025, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting widespread economic weakness [15].

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [1] - The month-on-month core PCE price index for May was reported at 0.2%, with market expectations previously set at 0.1% [1]

Group 1 - The core PCE price index in the US for May increased by 0.2%, surpassing the expected increase of 0.1% and matching the previous value of 0.1% [1] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index for May grew by 2.68%, slightly above the expected growth of 2.6% [1]

Core Insights - The core PCE price index for May in the U.S. is reported at an annual rate of 2.7%, which is above the expected rate of 2.60% and an upward revision from the previous value of 2.50% to 2.6% [1] Economic Indicators - The current core PCE price index indicates inflationary pressures that may influence monetary policy decisions [1] - The increase from the previous value suggests a trend of rising inflation, which could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth [1]

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for May increased by 2.68% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.5% [1] Economic Indicators - The current core PCE price index reflects a rising inflation trend, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and consumer spending [1] - The increase from the previous value suggests a continued upward pressure on prices, which may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core PCE price index in the United States increased by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing the expected growth of 2.6% [1]

Group 1 - The EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of US imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with President Trump [2] - The US Treasury announced an agreement with G7 allies to protect US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries, in exchange for removing the "899 retaliatory tax clause" from the "big and beautiful" tax reform [2] - The Federal Reserve Governor Daly indicated that increasing evidence suggests tariffs may not lead to significant or lasting inflation, which could support the case for interest rate cuts in the fall [2] Group 2 - The US real GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, a drop greater than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first contraction in three years [3] - The final value of US personal consumption was significantly revised down to only a 0.5% increase, the weakest quarterly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [4] - The core PCE price index in the US was revised up to 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [5] Group 3 - US initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, below the expected 245,000, while the previous week's continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [5] - US durable goods orders for May showed an initial month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014, significantly exceeding the expected 8.5% [5] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 404.41 points to 43,386.84; the S&P 500 increased by 48.86 points to 6,141.02; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points to 20,167.91 [6]