期货早高峰-音频版 女声普通话版 下载mp3 宏观要闻 1. 10月份中国制造业采购经理指数为 50.1%，较上月上升0.3个百分点，连续两个月环比上升。这也是在连续5个月运行在50%以下后，重回扩 张区间。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘涨跌不一，大豆期货涨0.53%报996.5美分/蒲式耳；玉米期货跌0.06%报411.25美分/蒲 式耳，小麦期货跌0.22%报572美分/蒲式耳。 5. 伦敦基本金属多数收涨，LME期铜涨0.09%报9547美元/吨，LME期锌跌1.59%报3037.5美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.51%报15735美元/吨，LME期 铝涨0.38%报2626美元/吨，LME期锡涨1.37%报31375美元/吨，LME期铅涨1.65%报2037美元/吨。 2. 央行公告，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，2024年10月人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展了5000亿元买断式逆回 购操作；为加大货币政策逆周期调节力度，维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，2024年10月人民银行开展了 公开市场国债买卖操作，全月净买入 债券面值为2000亿元。 3. 中美双方就两 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent nickel - iron prices have rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. Steel mills' production profits have improved, and with the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless - steel mills are more confident, and their production schedules are expected to increase. However, the downstream is entering the traditional off - season. In October, infrastructure construction is expected to accelerate. With the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies and anti - involution measures, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, market purchasing willingness has recovered, and pre - accumulated orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders of goods are more willing to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the price has dropped with an increase in positions, showing a strong short - selling atmosphere and breaking below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,336 lots, an increase of 2,501 lots; the main contract position is 87,251 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 562,300 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600 units, an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700 units, an increase of 6,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, make good use of securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, and stock repurchase and increase - holding re - loans. The new statement in the next - stage monetary policy indicates that the focus of monetary policy in the future will be to implement the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the growth of Indonesia's nickel - iron production has slowed down while domestic production has gradually declined. China's industrial profits above a designated size in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending has increased for three consecutive months [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips, with attention on the 271,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and the 275,000 resistance level should be watched. The domestic inventory has decreased due to some pre - holiday stockpiling, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,410 yuan/ton, down 1,660 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 500 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decline. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,415 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,590 lots, down 2,701 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 890 lots, down 474 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,775 tons, up 35 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 6,559 tons, down 429 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 5,950 tons, down 127 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 271,400 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 271,110 yuan/ton, down 2,570 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan, and the LME tin spread (0 - 3) is - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates' processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 259,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 263,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,170 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing existing policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council calls on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. China's industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, with tariffs imposed if not met. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3] Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to multiple factors such as some enterprises' resumption of production and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally maintain rigid procurement due to cost pressure, with a low willingness to actively stockpile. Due to the approaching National Day holiday, some enterprises have made small - scale pre - holiday stockpiling, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory and a spot premium of 300 yuan/ton, while the LME inventory has increased and the spot premium is at a low level [3]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250928: Supply Concerns Dominate the Market, Shanghai Copper Expected to Fluctuate Strongly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns dominate the market, and Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Grasberg copper mine shutdown drives up the market, and the copper spot premium/discount is under pressure to weaken [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation continued to narrow week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.44/ton week - on - week to - $40.36/ton, still low [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 86,500 tons week - on - week to 637,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in October is expected to continue to decline month - on - month [23] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly week - on - week [26] - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, but the copper price soared, demand was suppressed, and new orders grew slowly [31] - From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 10% year - on - year [34] - The production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to continue to decline slightly [35] - The production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in a detailed manner [41] - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [43] - The divergence on the Fed's interest rate cut path has intensified [46]

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for August is reported at an annual rate of 2.9%, matching expectations and the previous value [1] - The month-over-month change for the core PCE price index in August is 0.2%, consistent with expectations, while the previous value has been revised from 0.3% to 0.2% [1]

Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and potential investment opportunities within the industry, highlighting key financial metrics and performance indicators. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 15% year-over-year, reaching $1.5 billion in Q3 [1] - Operating income rose to $300 million, reflecting a 10% margin improvement compared to the previous year [1] - Net profit for the quarter was $200 million, up from $180 million in the same period last year, indicating a growth rate of 11% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The industry is experiencing a shift towards digital transformation, with a projected market growth rate of 20% over the next five years [1] - Consumer demand for innovative products has increased, leading to a 25% rise in new product launches [1] - Competitive landscape is intensifying, with several new entrants disrupting traditional market players [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest $100 million in R&D to enhance product offerings and maintain competitive advantage [1] - Strategic partnerships are being formed to expand market reach and leverage technological advancements [1] - A focus on sustainability initiatives is expected to attract environmentally conscious consumers, potentially increasing market share by 5% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US GDP in the second quarter had an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, a significant increase from the revised value of 3.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years, mainly due to unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports. The final value of the core PCE price index was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the export ban on gasoline resellers and producers until the end of the year, except for supplies under inter - governmental agreements [2]. - As of the week ending September 25, the production of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for rebar was 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.96% [2]. - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the daily price limit range for industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, for polysilicon futures contracts to 11%, and for lithium carbonate futures contracts to 10%. The margin standard for speculative trading will be adjusted to 12%, and for hedging trading to 11% [2]. - The "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has led to continuously low processing fees for copper concentrates, which is the most prominent problem in the industry. Industry enterprises should oppose this kind of competition [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot News - US second - quarter GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, core PCE price index final value was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year [2]. - Rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, apparent demand increased, and social inventory decreased in the week ending September 25 [2]. - Adjustments to the daily price limit range and margin standards for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [2]. - The copper smelting industry's "involution - style" competition problem was discussed at a meeting, and enterprises were urged to oppose it [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai Copper, Silver, Asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials (2.78%), Precious metals (31.98%), Oilseeds and oils (10.17%), Soft commodities (2.41%), Non - ferrous metals (20.18%), Coal, coke, and steel (13.66%), Energy (2.95%), Chemicals (11.55%), Grains (1.06%), Agricultural and sideline products (3.26%) [4]. Plate Position - Information about the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days is presented, but specific change values are not clearly summarized here due to the complex data form [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.12%, and annual change of 14.96%; S&P 500 had a daily change of - 0.50%, monthly change of 2.75%, and annual change of 12.86%; and other equity indices had corresponding changes [7]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.19%, and annual change of - 1.21%; 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of 0.05% and an annual change of - 0.92%; 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of - 0.09% and an annual change of - 0.63% [7]. - **Commodities**: CRB Commodity Index had a monthly change of - 0.82% and an annual change of 1.06%; WTI crude oil had a daily change of 0.38%, monthly change of 1.06%, and annual change of - 10.00%; London spot gold had a daily change of 0.34%, monthly change of 8.38%, and annual change of 42.36% [7]. - **Others**: US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.61%, monthly change of 0.02%, and annual change of - 9.79%; CBOE Volatility Index had a monthly change of 8.33% and an annual change of - 4.09% [7].

Core Insights - This week, the market will experience a series of important data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, with a particular focus on the U.S. August Core PCE Price Index, which will directly influence the Fed's interest rate path for the remainder of the year [1][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Following last week's Federal Reserve decision, officials will be making public speeches, with key figures like New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard discussing the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy [3]. - The U.S. August Core PCE Price Index is expected to maintain a growth rate around 3%, which would not alter expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year [11]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence - On Tuesday, various countries will release their September Manufacturing PMI preliminary values, with the Eurozone's August Manufacturing PMI revised up to 50.7, indicating potential economic expansion [4]. - The Eurozone's September Consumer Confidence Index is anticipated to remain negative but may show signs of improvement [3]. Group 3: International Economic Data - On Wednesday, Australia's August CPI is expected to remain stable, influencing future interest rate expectations, with a potential rate cut from 3.60% to 3.35% by November [8]. - Germany's September IFO Business Climate Index is projected to show a rebound for the seventh consecutive month [8]. Group 4: Additional Economic Releases - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at zero during its upcoming decision, following three months of stable inflation [9]. - The U.S. second-quarter GDP final value is projected at an annualized rate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending and increased investment in AI, which may lead to further revisions [11].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that the July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index met market expectations, but the unexpected widening of the goods trade deficit led to a downward revision of the U.S. third-quarter economic growth forecast [1] - The July core PCE price index increased by 0.27% month-on-month and rose to 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with Goldman Sachs' previous predictions and market expectations [1] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.20% month-on-month and increased to 2.60% year-on-year, consistent with Goldman Sachs and market forecasts [1] Group 2 - In July, U.S. personal income grew by 0.4% month-on-month, driven by increases in employment compensation, owner income, rental income, and asset income [3] - Personal spending also showed strong performance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, slightly above Goldman Sachs' forecast [3] - The savings rate in July remained at 4.4%, a slight decrease from the previously reported June figure of 4.5% [3] Group 3 - The U.S. goods trade deficit widened significantly in July, expanding by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding Goldman Sachs and market expectations [4] - The widening deficit was primarily due to a $18.6 billion increase in imports, while exports saw a slight decrease [4] - Goldman Sachs emphasized that the unexpected trade deficit is the main reason for the downward adjustment of the third-quarter GDP tracking estimate by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% [4]