来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 本周重点事件 & 指标 12 月 29 日 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国第三季度 GDP 远超预期，核心 PCE 符合预期，日本央行 10 月会 议纪要显示加息可能性；本周重点关注美联储货币政策会议纪要以及美联储主席人选或将揭晓等。 上周回顾日本央行 10 月会议纪要：若经济和物价预测如期实现，将继续加息。美联储克利夫兰联储主 席 Beth Hammack 表示，在通胀仍高于目标、数据存在失真背景下，未来数月内没有必要调整利率。她 称，11 月 CPI 的降温可能因政府停摆导致的数据问题而被低估，实际通胀或接近 2.9%–3.0%。在更清 楚评估关税对物价和经济影响前，倾向将政策利率维持在 3.5%–3.75% 区间至少至明年春季，并认为当 前利率可能已接近甚至略低于中性水平。美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值录得 4.3%，远超预期的 3.3% 和前值 3.8%。核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值为 2.9%，符合市场预期，高于前值 2.6%。此外， 实际个人消费支出季率初值为 3.5%，显著高于预期的 2.7% 和前值 2.5% ...

三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.9%，精准契合市场预期，较前值2.6%的小幅上升，当前通胀水 平仍处于可控范围。 现货黄金价格在数据发布后呈现持续回落态势，日内此前积累的涨幅被不断收窄，而美元指数则顺势反 弹，逐步攀升至当日高点附近。市场预期的变化更为显著，截至发稿时，投资者已明显下调对美联储明年 降息的押注力度，据市场测算，美联储在明年1月28日货币政策会议上实施降息的概率已降至17%左右。 尽管三季度经济增长表现强劲，且此前已形成阶段性增长势头，但多数经济学家对四季度经济走势的预判 较为悲观，普遍认为四季度经济增长将陷入乏力状态，甚至可能出现停滞。究其原因，核心症结在于始于 10月1日的43天政府停摆事件，这一事件对政府支出、企业投资和居民消费均产生了显著的冲击，不仅直 接抑制了短期经济活动，也对市场信心造成了负面影响，进而拖累四季度经济增长动能。 周二，美国经济分析局发布的三季度经济数据显示核心经济指标均超出市场预期，创下两年来最快扩张速 度。不过，多数经济学家对此持谨慎态度，普遍预警当前的高增长难以持续，后续经济下行压力不容忽 视。 美国三季度实际GDP年化季率初值达到4.3%，大幅高于3. ...

美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值录得 4.3%，远超预期的 3.3% 和前值 3.8%。核心 PCE 物价指数 年化季率初值为 2.9%，符合市场预期，高于前值 2.6%。此外，实际个人消费支出季率初值为 3.5%，显 著高于预期的 2.7% 和前值 2.5%。 （来源：吴说） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国三季度实际GDP年化季环比大幅上修至4.3%，显著高于预期的3.3%和前值3.8%；核心PCE物价指 数同比升2.9%，符合预期。 ...

12月8日资讯分享 美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率意外回落至2.8%，创三个月低位，市场预期为连续第三个月录得2.9%。 白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储是时候审慎地降息。未与川普讨论美联储主席人选问题。美财长： 美国到今年年底将实现3%的GDP增长。 上周五，现货黄金盘中短线拉升，一度逼近4260关口，但随后高位回落，回吐日内全部涨幅，收于4200 整数关口下方，最终收跌0.27%，报4197.13美元/盎司；现货白银历史性地站上59关口，连续第二日创 纪录新高，最终收涨2.03%，报58.3美元/盎司。 市场判断俄乌和谈短期难以促成制裁放松，WTI原油最终收涨0.7%，报60.13美元/桶；布伦特原油最终 收涨0.8%，报63.87美元/桶。 据悉G7和欧盟考虑禁止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。 俄媒：俄罗斯11月黄金储备首破3000亿美元，创其现代历史纪录。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Platinum is expected to continue oscillating, while palladium is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 442.30 with a 0.60% increase; the gold exchange platinum closed at 435.32 with a 0.26% increase; the New York platinum continuous contract closed at 1655.10 with a -0.32% decrease; the London spot platinum closed at 1635.00 with a -0.41% decrease. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 381.75 with a 0.66% increase; the RMB spot palladium closed at 355.00 with a -4.05% decrease; the New York palladium continuous contract closed at 1502.00 with a 1.25% increase; the London spot palladium closed at 1457.12 with a 0.07% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum was 25,037, an increase of 2,466 from the previous day, and the open interest was 65,408, an increase of 53,143. The trading volume of NYMEX platinum was 24,655, an increase of 1,820, and the open interest was 61,853, a decrease of 1,473. The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium was 4,728, a decrease of 4,841, and the open interest was 17,736, an increase of 14,369. The trading volume of NYMEX palladium was 3,606, a decrease of 788, and the open interest was 19,292, an increase of 85 [1] - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 3,124,461, an increase of 2,519. The palladium ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 1,093,932, an increase of 16,431 [1] - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 614,713, a decrease of 232. The NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 176,705, an increase of 4,315 [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread of PT9995 to PT2606 was -6.98, an increase of 1.35 from the previous day. The spread of Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract was -1.05, a decrease of 0.95. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 was 5.51, an increase of 0.02. The spread of the gold exchange platinum to London platinum was 63.64, an increase of 11.38. The spread of the RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 was -27, a decrease of 0.25. The spread of Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract was -0.25, an increase of 0.40. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 was 4.79, unchanged. The spread of the RMB spot palladium to London palladium was 24, an increase of 0.67 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.98, a decrease of 0.08%. The US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.02%. The US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.01%. The US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 7.00, an increase of 0.22% [1] Macro and Industry News - The US September core PCE price index annual rate unexpectedly dropped to 2.8%, hitting a three - month low, while the market expected it to record 2.9% for the third consecutive month [4] - White House Economic Council Director Hassett stated that it was time for the Fed to cut interest rates prudently and that he had not discussed the Fed chairperson candidate with Trump [4] - Bessent said that the US would achieve 3% GDP growth by the end of this year [4] - Trump approved the production of small cars in the US [4] - Trump commented on the Supreme Court tariff case, saying that the US had other ways to impose tariffs, and the current method was much more direct [4] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu refused to withdraw from politics in exchange for a pardon [4] - Hamas said it was willing to discuss the issue of disarmament within the framework of promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and that of palladium is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

核心PCE物价指数是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标，于2002年被美联储的决策机构联邦公开市场委 员会采纳为衡量通货膨胀的一个主要指标。从隔夜市场表现看，美股三大股指集体上涨，核心PCE物价 指数降温一定程度上提振了市场对美联储下周再次宣布降息的预期。CME美联储观察工具显示，市场 预计美联储在12月货币政策会议上降息25个基点的概率已升至87%。 在通胀有所降温的同时，从近期美联储官员表态来看，其普遍更加看重就业市场走弱的风险。华安证券 认为，第三方机构的高频数据均指向就业市场进一步走弱，给降息提供了一定支撑。但结合10月美联储 议息会议纪要中其官员对后续降息存在较大分歧，预计12月美联储大概率采取"鹰派"降息，并对后续降 息路径的态度更加谨慎，同时需要关注12月末美国总统特朗普可能宣布的下一任美联储主席人选。 北京时间12月5日晚，美联储最关注的通胀指标——PCE物价指数出炉，其被视为影响美联储本月利率 政策的重要变量之一。数据显示，美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，低于预期和前值（均为 2.9%）；环比上升0.2%，与市场预期和前值保持一致。 ...

美国9月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.2%，预期增长0.2%，前值增长0.2%。 ...

格隆汇12月5日｜美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率意外回落至2.8%，创3个月低位，市场预期为连续第三 个月录得2.9%；月率0.2%，预期0.20%，前值0.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the economic indicators for the United States in September, including personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and core PCE inflation rates [1] Group 2 - In September, personal income in the U.S. increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and matching the previous month's value [1] - The actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in September showed no change (0%) month-on-month, falling short of the expected increase of 0.1% and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 0.4% [1] - The core PCE price index for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations and the previous month's figure [1] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index stood at 2.83%, slightly above the expected 2.8% and down from the previous 2.9% [1] - The overall PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations and remaining consistent with the previous month's increase [1] - Year-on-year, the PCE price index was reported at 2.8%, matching expectations and showing an increase from the previous 2.7% [1]