Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices experienced a decline while copper prices remained volatile, with COMEX gold down 2.21% and COMEX copper up 0.09% [4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices saw slight declines, with COMEX gold down 2.0% and COMEX silver down 1.3% [22][23]. - The recent clarification on gold tariffs by Trump alleviated previous risks, but the release of CPI and PPI data led to fluctuating expectations for a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on precious metal prices [6][22]. - The medium to long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to ongoing concerns about U.S. sovereign credit risk, suggesting potential for further price increases [6][50]. Group 2: Base Metals Market - Copper prices are currently lacking a clear trend, with SHFE copper prices fluctuating around 79,000 yuan per ton [8][49]. - Despite signs of weakening economic data in July, there is still strong policy support aimed at combating deflation, which may provide a buffer against significant price declines for copper [8][49]. - The copper concentrate TC index rose to -37.93 USD/ton, indicating a slight recovery in the spot market, although long-term supply-demand dynamics remain unchanged [12][20]. Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 50,000 ounces to 3,864 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 1.06 million ounces to 50,755 million ounces [34]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5.7 tons to 965 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 81 tons to 15,071 tons [39][40]. - The positioning data indicates a decrease in non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [39][40].

Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a two-month high, influenced by profit-taking and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - On June 16, gold opened at $3433.00, peaked at $3452.50, and closed at $3383.62, marking a daily drop of $49.73 or 1.45% [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the release of U.S. retail data, which are critical for assessing the economic situation [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices broke through a recent trading range but lack confirmation through a pullback, with key support at the 5-week moving average of $3365 [2] - The daily K-line indicates that gold faced resistance at $3455, suggesting a shift to a corrective phase, with immediate support at the 10-day moving average [2] - The expected trading range for gold is between $3400 and $3365, with upward movement requiring a breakthrough above $3415-$3420 to avoid further declines [2]