Geopolitical Risks - Short-term geopolitical conditions remain a key variable affecting asset prices, with uncertain prospects ahead[1] - The upcoming Iranian Supreme Leader election may significantly influence the direction of the conflict, potentially leading to increased volatility[1] - The U.S. administration, facing midterm election pressures, has strong incentives to expedite negotiations to end the conflict, but may be constrained by Iran's response capabilities[1] Market Performance - For the week of March 2-8, 2026, major global stock markets experienced declines: Shanghai Composite down 0.93%, S&P 500 down 2.02%, and Nikkei 225 down 5.33%[12] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with IPE Brent crude futures rising by 28.68% and COMEX copper falling by 3.69%[12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a significant drop of 92,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, exceeding expectations[13] - Despite the employment decline, the ISM manufacturing PMI remained robust at 52.4%, indicating continued economic strength[13] - In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8%, while service PMI was at 51.8%, suggesting moderate economic recovery[14] Risk Factors - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East present high uncertainty in the short term, which could impact market stability[19] - Potential new tariff risks may arise following the Trump administration's legal challenges regarding equal tariffs[19]

Report Title - Shanghai Copper Holiday Event Review and Outlook [1] Report Date - February 23, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Overseas macro factors are mixed, and there is inventory accumulation during the holiday. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Before the holiday, the spot trading of copper was sluggish, and the discount was under pressure [12] - During the holiday, the 0 - 3M discount of LME copper narrowed compared with the previous period [14] Fundamental Data - On February 13, the spot TC of copper concentrate was about -$50.53/ton, still at a low level [17] - In January, the copper content of copper concentrate produced by the mining industry in Peru completed 115.1% of the plan, a new high in the same period [20] - Before the holiday, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper strengthened [23] - Satellite data showed that the smelting activity in January reached the lowest level in the past decade [25] - From January to December, the cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products was 5.321 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [27] - Before the holiday, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [28] - During the holiday, both LME copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [29] - At the end of pre - holiday stocking, the operating rate of refined copper rods decreased month - on - month [31] - From February 1 - 8, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 42% year - on - year [33] - It is expected that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 2026 will be 180 - 240GW [34] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in February decreased by 22.1% compared with the actual performance in the same period last year due to the adjustment of the Spring Festival production schedule [37] Macroeconomic Data - China's credit had a good start: in January, the new social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 4.71 trillion yuan [41] - The US core PCE price index in December increased by 3% year - on - year, exceeding expectations [42] - The minutes of the Fed meeting revealed significant internal differences [45]

Group 1 - Speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 3,019 contracts to 96,057 contracts, reaching a three-week high [1] - Net long positions in COMEX silver also reached a three-week high [1] - Net long positions in COMEX copper fell to a 20-week low [1] Group 2 - Net long positions in NYMEX platinum reached a four-week high [1] - Net long positions in NYMEX palladium reached a three-year high [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both domestic and international copper prices are experiencing a decline, with current losses exceeding 2% [2] - The recent sell-off in U.S. technology stocks has negatively impacted overseas risk appetite, leading to a general downturn in industrial commodities, including copper [2] - The price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has turned negative, reflecting seasonal weakness in the domestic market and an evident accumulation of global copper inventories [2] Group 2 - The article highlights that the pressure on copper prices is increasing due to the visible accumulation of copper stocks globally [2] - The ongoing seasonal effects in the domestic market are contributing to the downward trend in copper prices [2] - The overall sentiment in the market remains bearish, as industrial commodities are broadly declining amid unfavorable external conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, despite a weakening US dollar making commodities more attractive to foreign holders [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 101,560 yuan per ton, up 0.05%, with an intraday increase of 0.98% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price fell by 0.65% to $13,091 per ton, maintaining above the $13,000 mark [1]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Major exchange registered warehouse inventories have increased, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory reaching 248,911 tons, marking a nine-week consecutive increase [4]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to a record 590,211 tons, indicating a significant rise in supply [5]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Analysts noted that demand from downstream buyers in China has cooled after pre-holiday restocking, contributing to the pressure on copper prices [4]. - The Yangshan copper premium, a barometer for China's import demand, has widened to $38 per ton from a previous $20, but remains low compared to over $50 at the end of December, reflecting weak demand [5].

Group 1 - Copper prices in Shanghai opened lower and closed down by 3.76%, maintaining above the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by weak market sentiment and a decline in U.S. stocks [1] - The U.S. ADP employment figures for January showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 48,000, indicating a sluggish employment market amid low hiring and layoffs [1] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream copper enterprises are beginning to halt production and stock up, but demand is expected to weaken further, limiting the upward potential for copper prices [1] Group 2 - The supply and demand situation in the copper market remains weak, with global inventories increasing to 1 million tons, and China entering a seasonal consumption lull [2] - The domestic inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down after the opening of export windows, while overseas LME deliverable stocks have been insufficient, leading to fluctuations in premiums [2] - The current price difference between London copper and U.S. copper is narrowing, and attention should be paid to changes in the COMEX copper term structure and the C-L price spread [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The nomination of hawkish Fed Chair Walsh is expected to restore the Fed's independence and support the dollar, leading to a rise in interest rates and a potential tightening of monetary policy[10] - The market anticipates a new round of tightening due to the Fed Chair nomination, with economic fundamentals showing signs of slowing down[2] - The 1Y Treasury yield decreased from 1.337% to 1.3%, while the 10Y Treasury yield fell from 1.847% to 1.811%[2] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.76% from 3968.84 to 4117.95, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.47% from 3203.17 to 3346.36[2] - The NASDAQ index showed a slight increase of 0.95%, moving from 23241.99 to 23461.82, but is expected to face valuation pressure in the short term[2] - The recommendation is to overweight financial stocks while underweighting consumer stocks and U.S. equities due to tightening expectations[3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Trends - Brent crude oil prices surged by 13.57%, from $57.42 to $65.21 per barrel, driven by geopolitical factors and Fed expectations[2] - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, moving from 98.27 to 97.12, indicating a recovery in dollar strength[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate slightly decreased from 6.99 to 6.95, reflecting a slower appreciation of the yuan[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, highlighting a pause in interest rate cuts while indicating a slightly hawkish stance, which has led to adjustments in asset prices. The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for market adjustments, particularly in precious metals, but the article suggests this is a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pause interest rate cuts during its meeting on January 28, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [2][3]. - The dollar index began to rise, while U.S. stock markets experienced fluctuations, with precious metals initially rising but later facing corrections due to the Fed's hawkish signals [2][3]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Appointment - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair was unexpected in terms of timing and his policy stance, which emphasizes Fed independence and a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, advocating for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - The market does not expect Walsh's policy proposals to be implemented in the short term, as there are constraints related to dollar liquidity and employment pressures, despite the Fed's potential for technical balance sheet expansion starting December 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's appointment, there was significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals, which the article attributes to a rapid prior increase in prices rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [3]. - The article notes that while Walsh's appointment has some catalytic effects on market dynamics, it does not signify a fundamental shift in Fed policy direction, suggesting that precious metal prices may find support after short-term technical adjustments [3]. Group 4: Global Asset Performance - During the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [4]. - Commodity prices were also mixed, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and the London gold price declining by 2.03% [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent policy statement was slightly hawkish, leading to asset price adjustments[5] - On January 28, the Fed paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%[9] - The Fed's optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts[5] Group 2: Kevin Warsh's Appointment - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair caused significant market volatility, particularly in precious metals[5] - Warsh's commitment to Fed independence and his pragmatic monetary policy approach are seen as reducing the likelihood of immediate rate cuts[10] - Market expectations for rate cuts remain at two for the year, indicating skepticism about Warsh's policies being implemented quickly[10] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Warsh's appointment, the dollar index rose, U.S. Treasury yields increased, and stock markets experienced declines[9] - Precious metals, which had previously surged, underwent significant corrections, viewed as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift[9] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.38%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.34%, indicating mixed performance across global equities[11] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. remained low at 209,000, reflecting a strong labor market[12] - The Eurozone's GDP grew by 1.3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, indicating continued economic resilience[12] - The U.S. PPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month in December 2025, suggesting inflationary pressures are still present[12]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.49% to 4160.01, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09% to 14342.74, and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.37% to 3330.39 [1][2]. Sector Performance - Precious metals, industrial metals, and petrochemicals sectors performed strongly, while solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace sectors experienced fluctuations [2]. - The basic metals sector saw significant gains, with copper and aluminum industries leading the rise, as multiple stocks hit the daily limit up [6]. Stock Highlights - Notable stocks included China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, and China Unicom, which showed strong performance [4]. - The aluminum futures market saw a rise of over 4%, with the main contract reported at 25345 yuan/ton [8]. Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology sector faced declines, with several companies such as Zhijiang Biology and Baipusais losing over 9% [10][11]. Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector faced downward adjustments, with companies like High Measurement and Maiwei experiencing drops exceeding 6% [11].