铜周报 20251123 宏观短期偏空，矿端犹存约束， 沪铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 盘面跌、终端采购意愿回升，铜现货升贴水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 本周LME铜0-3M升贴水先跌后涨、环比变动有限 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.32美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增5.7万吨至70.49万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has witnessed the realization of expectations and a short - term correction. With a tight supply at the mine end, it is advisable to go long on SHFE copper at low levels [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - The market was strong in the first half of the week, with the spot premium declining and rebounding in the second half [11] - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened on a week - on - week basis [12] 3.2 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.55/ton week - on - week to - $42.15/ton, still at a low level [16] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 52,000 tons week - on - week to 626,100 tons [19] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened on a week - on - week basis [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in October decreased month - on - month [23] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [25] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [28] - LME copper continued to see inventory reduction, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [29] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and the high price significantly suppressed downstream procurement [32] - From October 1st to 26th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were flat year - on - year [34] - The shipments of leading photovoltaic module enterprises were satisfactory, and centralized projects showed signs of recovery [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [39] - The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2% for the third time, and the economic resilience withstood the headwinds of trade [41] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and will end the balance sheet reduction in December [42]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached a new high in 2023 due to a combination of supply disruptions and monetary easing, with a shift from a balanced supply-demand scenario to a shortage [1][4] Supply Factors - Major copper mines such as Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg have faced partial or complete shutdowns since 2025, leading to a global copper supply shortage [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) have dropped to a historical low of -42.6 USD/dry ton, indicating fierce competition for copper resources among smelters [1] - Despite the decline in TC, large smelters maintain cash flow due to good returns from by-products like sulfuric acid, but potential price drops in these by-products could lead to cash flow losses and temporary production cuts [1] Demand Factors - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.9% year-on-year increase, with China accounting for 10.62 million tons, up 11.05% [2] - The recent rise in copper prices to over 80,000 CNY/ton has had a mild suppressive effect on downstream demand, contrasting with previous price surges where demand feedback was more negative [2] - The market's perception of acceptable copper prices is gradually increasing as supply tightens [2] Macroeconomic Influences - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key macro driver supporting copper prices, with two potential cuts anticipated by the end of the year [3] - Recent U.S. CPI data indicates manageable inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts [3] - The COMEX copper market is experiencing a premium over LME copper, attracting copper inflows into the U.S. and tightening supply in non-U.S. regions [3] Overall Market Outlook - A robust fundamental backdrop and expectations of monetary easing support upward trends in copper prices, with supply shortages unlikely to reverse in the short term [4] - Strong demand from sectors like electricity and renewable energy provides marginal growth [4] - The market needs to monitor macroeconomic factors such as tariff policies and overseas interest rate changes, as these could significantly impact copper prices in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices in Shanghai reached a new high in October, driven by both commodity and financial attributes, with supply disruptions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts playing significant roles [1][2][3] Supply Side Summary - Major copper mines like Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg have faced partial or complete shutdowns since 2025, shifting global copper supply from a tight balance to a shortage [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) hit a historical low of -42.6 USD/dry ton as of October 25, indicating fierce competition for copper resources among smelters [1] - Despite lower TC, large smelters maintain cash flow due to good returns from by-products like sulfuric acid, but potential declines in by-product prices could lead to cash flow losses and temporary production cuts [1] Demand Side Summary - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.90% increase year-on-year, with China accounting for 10.62 million tons, up 11.05% [2] - The recent rise in copper prices to over 80,000 CNY/ton has somewhat suppressed downstream demand, but the market's negative feedback has been relatively mild compared to previous price surges [2] - The acceptance of high copper prices by downstream markets is increasing as supply tightness becomes a consensus [2][3] Macro Factors Summary - The macroeconomic focus is on U.S.-China tariffs and overseas interest rate cuts, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The recent U.S. CPI data indicates manageable inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts, which are seen as a primary driver for rising copper prices [2] - The COMEX copper market has maintained a high premium over LME copper, attracting copper inflows into the U.S. and tightening supply in non-U.S. regions [3] Overall Market Outlook - A robust fundamental backdrop and expectations of interest rate cuts support upward trends in copper prices, with supply shortages unlikely to reverse in the short term [3] - Strong demand from sectors like electricity and renewable energy provides marginal growth, while the market's increasing acceptance of high copper prices offers solid support for the price midpoint in the medium to long term [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is bullish, driven by macro - optimistic sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract 2512 closed at 87,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a weekly increase of 3.95%. The market went up due to factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, slow growth of US core CPI in September, and positive economic data from China, the US, and Europe [4]. - The supply of copper is expected to be tight. Domestic smelters' maintenance expanded in October, with anode copper supplement limited. The output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the output in November is also expected to decline month - on - month. The net import of copper in October increased month - on - month [4]. - The demand for copper is affected by high prices. The consumption of refined copper rods is dull. The sales area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities from October 13 - 19 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the same period last year. The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to decrease by 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [4]. - In terms of inventory, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week, while LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Data - The copper spot premium and discount declined as the market was strong but the procurement sentiment weakened. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium and discount weakened week - on - week [12][13]. b) Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.73/ton week - on - week to - $42.7/ton, remaining at a low level [18]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports decreased by 0.26 tons week - on - week to 67.81 tons [20]. - The change in the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [22]. - The domestic electrolytic copper output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [24]. - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [26]. - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week. LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [27][28]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased slightly week - on - week, and consumption was dull due to high copper prices [31]. - The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to be 2.2 million, a decrease of 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year [33]. - The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [34]. - The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [35]. c) Macroeconomic Data - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [38]. - The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, and the euro - zone composite PMI in October reached the highest level in a year and a half [40]. - The US core CPI in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest growth in three months, which increased the expectation of another interest - rate cut by the Fed this year [43].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX copper prices surged over 5%, reaching $5.145 per pound on October 13 [1] Group 1 - The significant increase in copper prices indicates strong market demand and potential investment opportunities in the commodities sector [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint There is a concern about tariffs again, leading to a correction in Shanghai copper prices, but the expected depth of the decline is limited [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - The Shanghai copper market rallied after the holiday, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened on a weekly basis [11] Fundamental Data - On October 10, the spot TC for copper concentrates was about -$40.7/ton, still at a low level [15] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24] - After the holiday, both the spot inventory and bonded area inventory of electrolytic copper increased [25] - LME copper inventory decreased on a weekly basis, while COMEX copper inventory increased on a weekly basis [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased significantly on a weekly basis this week, as the post - holiday copper price rally suppressed consumption and dragged down the operating rate [28] - From September 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 16% year - on - year [31] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [32] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual figure of the same period last year [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, rebounding for the second consecutive month [37] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [39] - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts [40]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing volatility in the international political and economic landscape during the recent holiday period, with significant events in the U.S., Japan, France, and the Middle East impacting global markets [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Situation - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to a stalemate between the two parties over temporary funding and healthcare subsidies, marking the first shutdown in seven years. Predictions indicate a 75% chance of the shutdown lasting over 15 days [8]. - Recent economic indicators, including ADP employment and PMI data, have fallen short of market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of consecutive interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is at 94.6% and 83.4% for December [8][4]. Group 2: International Political Developments - In Japan, Fumio Kishida has been elected as the new president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, potentially becoming the first female Prime Minister. Kishida is expected to continue the "Abenomics" approach, focusing on aggressive fiscal and monetary policies [8]. - In France, the resignation of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne highlights growing fiscal risks, with France's budget deficit projected to be the highest in the Eurozone for 2024 and government debt at 113% of GDP, significantly above the EU's 60% threshold [8]. - The ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza face significant challenges, with substantial divisions among parties involved, indicating continued uncertainty in the Middle East [8]. Group 3: Global Asset Performance - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 7, 2025, global asset prices showed mixed results. The Nikkei 225 rose by 6.72%, emerging market stocks increased by 2.17%, and developed market stocks rose by 0.80%. The S&P 500 saw a modest increase of 0.39% [3]. - Commodity prices exhibited a mixed trend, with COMEX copper rising by 4.38% and London gold increasing by 3.28%, while IPE Brent crude futures fell by 1.98% [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and fiscal easing in multiple countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines leading to a tight supply - demand outlook, may make the price of Shanghai copper more likely to rise than fall [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the closing price was 82370 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 138460 lots, a decrease of 36165 lots; open interest was 213792 lots, a reduction of 15258 lots; inventory was 25603 tons, down 954 tons. The spot - futures basis and various copper price differentials also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 29, 2025, was 10428.5 US dollars, up 223.5 US dollars from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month and 3 - 15 - month contract spreads had positive changes [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 29, 2025, was 4.906 US dollars, an increase of 0.12 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 323207 tons, up 2151 tons [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Disruptions in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, which has increased compared to last week. This has tightened the supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates are trending down, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: With the significant increase in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 yuan and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 yuan for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9800 - 10000 US dollars and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 US dollars for London copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for COMEX copper [2].