Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices experienced a decline while copper prices remained volatile, with COMEX gold down 2.21% and COMEX copper up 0.09% [4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices saw slight declines, with COMEX gold down 2.0% and COMEX silver down 1.3% [22][23]. - The recent clarification on gold tariffs by Trump alleviated previous risks, but the release of CPI and PPI data led to fluctuating expectations for a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on precious metal prices [6][22]. - The medium to long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to ongoing concerns about U.S. sovereign credit risk, suggesting potential for further price increases [6][50]. Group 2: Base Metals Market - Copper prices are currently lacking a clear trend, with SHFE copper prices fluctuating around 79,000 yuan per ton [8][49]. - Despite signs of weakening economic data in July, there is still strong policy support aimed at combating deflation, which may provide a buffer against significant price declines for copper [8][49]. - The copper concentrate TC index rose to -37.93 USD/ton, indicating a slight recovery in the spot market, although long-term supply-demand dynamics remain unchanged [12][20]. Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 50,000 ounces to 3,864 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 1.06 million ounces to 50,755 million ounces [34]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5.7 tons to 965 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 81 tons to 15,071 tons [39][40]. - The positioning data indicates a decrease in non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The US non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, strengthening market expectations for a September interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to decline and supporting the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The Shanghai copper market has largely priced in previous negative factors, and as domestic terminal demand gradually emerges from the off-season, downstream inventory replenishment demand has been stimulated [4]. - After the US exemption of import tariffs on refined copper, global copper resources may shift to non-US markets in the second half of the year, leading to a recent continuous increase in inventories of LME copper and Shanghai copper [4]. - In July, the production of electrolytic copper reached a record high, and high production is expected to continue in August. Coupled with the rebound of import processing fees, supply pressure remains [4]. - Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile pattern, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors: the decline of the US dollar provides support, but the shift to a looser supply-demand balance and inventory accumulation limit the upside space [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, a position of 152,557 lots, and a trading volume of 50,116 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 70,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%, a position of 3,997 lots, and a trading volume of 2,534 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 9,777 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 14,623 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 449.75 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.89%, a position of 51,622 lots, and a trading volume of 24,634 lots [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 650 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 79,170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 665 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.85% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 630 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.8% [10]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 660 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.84% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 50% [12]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 85 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 100% [12]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 95 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 111.76% [12]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium/discount is 170 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 78.95% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (spot/3 months) premium/discount is -88.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 23.12 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 35.23% [12]. - The latest price of LME copper (3 months/15 months) premium/discount is -149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 6.43% [12]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest value of copper import profit and loss is 144.92 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 389.96 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of -159.14% [13]. - The latest value of copper concentrate TC is -38 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of -7.32% [13]. - The latest value of the copper-aluminum ratio is 3.8112, with a weekly increase of 0.03 and a weekly increase rate of 0.79% [13]. - The latest value of the refined-scrap copper price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 314.47 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 40.11% [13]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest value of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts (total) is 24,560 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,288 tons and a weekly increase rate of 15.46% [17]. - The latest value of international copper warehouse receipts (total) is 7,422 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,869 tons and a weekly increase rate of 377.91% [17]. - The latest value of Shanghai copper inventory is 86,361 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,428 tons and a weekly increase rate of 5.4% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper registered warehouse receipts is 144,800 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.05% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts is 11,050 tons, with a weekly decrease of 75 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.67% [17]. - The latest value of LME copper inventory is 155,850 tons, with a weekly decrease of 150 tons and a weekly decrease rate of -0.1% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts is 124,862 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,269 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.03% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts is 141,942 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,239 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.6% [19]. - The latest value of COMEX copper inventory is 266,804 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,508 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.33% [19]. - The latest value of copper ore port inventory is 429,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.9% [19]. - The latest value of social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and the cumulative production was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21]. - In June 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the cumulative production was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21]. Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 26.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.28 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.43 percentage points [23]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 65.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 3 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.66 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.45%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.07 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.47 percentage points [24]. - In July 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.88%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.37 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 3.83 percentage points [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.560072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the cumulative import volume was 17.317529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and the cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -17% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -9% [26]. - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, with no year-on-year change [26]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 479,902.059 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative import volume was 3,112,510.767 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -2.6% [26].

Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a general adjustment, with Hong Kong, France, Germany, and the US stock markets showing significant declines. A-shares, after five consecutive weeks of gains, faced a correction, with major indices generally declining. In terms of sectors, A-share CPO and innovative pharmaceuticals led the gains, while cyclical products like coal and non-ferrous metals saw a pullback. The domestic commodity market cooled down due to risk warnings from the three major futures exchanges and position limits on certain products, leading to sharp declines in previously strong commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon. On the international front, Trump's announcement on July 30 regarding copper tariffs did not impose restrictions on copper raw materials, resulting in a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index plummeted after the release of non-farm payroll data on Friday, with market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly increasing [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market correction is temporary, and the slow bull market trend remains unchanged. Following the July Politburo meeting and the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, the market's speculation on incremental policies has cooled down, and after five weeks of consecutive gains, the index requires a phase of adjustment. Looking ahead, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively ample, which is conducive to the continuation of the slow bull trend in A-shares. Since the "623" market, A-shares have shown clear characteristics of "rotating upward and low-level replenishment," with better sustainability of the profit-making effect. Additionally, the sources of incremental capital in the market are diverse, with increased participation from public and private equity institutions, and the positive feedback effect of "residents allocating funds into the market and the slow rise of the stock market" is expected to strengthen [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following areas for sector allocation: 1) New technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, robotics, and solid-state batteries; 2) Reallocation opportunities in dividend sectors after corrections, such as certain undervalued state-owned enterprises. Thematic areas of interest include self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [2][3].

Core Insights - COMEX copper has stabilized after a significant drop of 22%, raising questions about whether this is a bear trap or a "dead cat bounce" [1] - The substantial copper inventory accumulated in the U.S. may pose a risk, potentially acting as a "ticking time bomb" for the market [1] Group 1 - The recent 22% decline in COMEX copper prices has led to speculation about market dynamics and potential recovery patterns [1] - Analysts are debating the implications of the current copper inventory levels in the U.S., which could influence future price movements [1]

期 节有限公司 近期3OMEX铜价大幅度下跌，日内跌幅近20%，原因是美国时钢关税落地。精铸铜胶排除在关税之外。美国白官7月30日表示，美国铭自8月1日起对进口半成品铜厂品《例如铜管、铜 线、铜棒、铜板和钢管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍征收50%的关税。但铜渝入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、新铜、阴双铜和阳改网）和钢废料不受"22 系款"或尔等关税约束。美国时铜关税与市场前期预期存在较大差异，精炼铜被排除在关税之外，COMEX与LME铜价差也从最高近3000美元降至当前不足000美元。我们在前期的系列报告 《铜市裂痕：COMEX与LME及碳价差背后的玄机》中已经对相关原理做过详细阐述，近期美国内钢关税尘埃落定，精炼铜不受"282条款"或对等关税的束，预示着C-L之间的高价差将回落至 历史正常值。而对进口半成品铜产品仍征收关税，意味着美国后续或将增加精炼钢的进口量而替代铜材的进口，进而促使铜加工企业回流美国。 基本面情况 从铜的供需面来看，铜矿 供应仍然偏紧，铜矿加工费仍然处于历史偏低水平，当前位于-40美元以下。且粗胸加工费低位，原料供应依然紧张，前期刚果金卡莫拉铜厂下调全年铜矿产量 ...

7月31日（周四），纽约商品交易所（COMEX）表示，COMEX铜交易在周三一度停止，因在美国总统特朗普意外宣布将广泛交易的精炼铜排除在50%的进 口关税之外决定后的一小时内，价格暴跌了超过20%。 在关税决定宣布后，COMEX铜价暴跌22%，至每磅4.5030美元，或每吨9,927美元，引发多头仓位快速平仓，触发熔断机制。 周四，COMEX铜交易在每吨9,600美元左右，其较伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准合约的溢价已从本月初达到每吨约3,000美元纪录缩窄至每吨10美元左右。 自特朗普在2月份提出征收金属关税以来，这一溢价效应已促使全球各地的铜流入美国市场，其中大部分是存放在伦敦金属交易所认可的仓库中。 （文华综合） 这是不到一个月内铜市场第二次触发熔断机制。在7月8日，价格飙升将近18%，此前美国总统特朗普称他将宣布对铜进口征收50%的关税。 "市场有点超前了，"一位铜交易商表示。"一旦人们清楚精炼铜是被排除在征税之外的，那整个泡沫很快就破灭了。" 美国白宫30日表示，特朗普签署了一项公告，宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税。公告显示，将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜 板和铜管）及铜密集 ...

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：截至7月22日当周，COMEX铜投机者将净多头头寸减少1,096手， 至36,179手。 ...

Group 1 - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high before experiencing a sudden decline [1] - The upcoming deadline for U.S. copper import tariffs on August 1 may significantly alter market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. copper import tax policy is causing significant market fluctuations, leading to a new historical high in COMEX copper prices, with expectations for domestic copper prices to test previous highs [1] Group 1 - The U.S. copper import tax policy is approaching, which is creating volatility in the market [1] - COMEX copper prices have reached a new all-time high [1] - Institutions believe that domestic copper prices may test previous highs due to the market conditions [1]

Core Insights - COMEX copper prices are at historical highs, raising questions about the future trajectory of copper prices and the potential impact of impending U.S. import taxes on copper [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current supply and demand dynamics in the copper market are under scrutiny as prices reach unprecedented levels [1]