沪铜假期事件盘点及前瞻 20260223 海外宏观多空交织、节中累库， 短期震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 假期重要事件/数据盘点 | 1 | | --- | 核心要点及策略 2 影响因素分析 3 01 03 02 价格数据 05 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 20 08 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 节前铜现货成交冷清、贴水承压 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 节中LME铜0-3M贴水环比有所缩窄 7 02 基本面数据 8 2月13日铜精矿现货粗炼费TC约-50.53美元/吨，仍低 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 1月秘鲁矿业生产铜精矿含铜完成计划的115.1%，同期新高 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 节前精废价差有所走强 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 卫星数据显示1月冶炼活动量创近十年最低水平 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 1-12月累计进口未锻轧铜及铜材532.1万吨，同比减 ...

据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC），截至2月17日当周，投机者所持COMEX黄金净多头头寸增加 3019手合约至96057手合约，创三周新高。所持COMEX白银净多头头寸创三周新高。所持COMEX铜净 多头头寸创20周新低。所持NYMEX铂金净多头头寸创四周新高，所持NYMEX钯金净多头头寸创三年 新高。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both domestic and international copper prices are experiencing a decline, with current losses exceeding 2% [2] - The recent sell-off in U.S. technology stocks has negatively impacted overseas risk appetite, leading to a general downturn in industrial commodities, including copper [2] - The price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has turned negative, reflecting seasonal weakness in the domestic market and an evident accumulation of global copper inventories [2] Group 2 - The article highlights that the pressure on copper prices is increasing due to the visible accumulation of copper stocks globally [2] - The ongoing seasonal effects in the domestic market are contributing to the downward trend in copper prices [2] - The overall sentiment in the market remains bearish, as industrial commodities are broadly declining amid unfavorable external conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, despite a weakening US dollar making commodities more attractive to foreign holders [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 101,560 yuan per ton, up 0.05%, with an intraday increase of 0.98% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price fell by 0.65% to $13,091 per ton, maintaining above the $13,000 mark [1]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Major exchange registered warehouse inventories have increased, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory reaching 248,911 tons, marking a nine-week consecutive increase [4]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to a record 590,211 tons, indicating a significant rise in supply [5]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Analysts noted that demand from downstream buyers in China has cooled after pre-holiday restocking, contributing to the pressure on copper prices [4]. - The Yangshan copper premium, a barometer for China's import demand, has widened to $38 per ton from a previous $20, but remains low compared to over $50 at the end of December, reflecting weak demand [5].

Group 1 - Copper prices in Shanghai opened lower and closed down by 3.76%, maintaining above the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by weak market sentiment and a decline in U.S. stocks [1] - The U.S. ADP employment figures for January showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 48,000, indicating a sluggish employment market amid low hiring and layoffs [1] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream copper enterprises are beginning to halt production and stock up, but demand is expected to weaken further, limiting the upward potential for copper prices [1] Group 2 - The supply and demand situation in the copper market remains weak, with global inventories increasing to 1 million tons, and China entering a seasonal consumption lull [2] - The domestic inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down after the opening of export windows, while overseas LME deliverable stocks have been insufficient, leading to fluctuations in premiums [2] - The current price difference between London copper and U.S. copper is narrowing, and attention should be paid to changes in the COMEX copper term structure and the C-L price spread [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The nomination of hawkish Fed Chair Walsh is expected to restore the Fed's independence and support the dollar, leading to a rise in interest rates and a potential tightening of monetary policy[10] - The market anticipates a new round of tightening due to the Fed Chair nomination, with economic fundamentals showing signs of slowing down[2] - The 1Y Treasury yield decreased from 1.337% to 1.3%, while the 10Y Treasury yield fell from 1.847% to 1.811%[2] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.76% from 3968.84 to 4117.95, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.47% from 3203.17 to 3346.36[2] - The NASDAQ index showed a slight increase of 0.95%, moving from 23241.99 to 23461.82, but is expected to face valuation pressure in the short term[2] - The recommendation is to overweight financial stocks while underweighting consumer stocks and U.S. equities due to tightening expectations[3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Trends - Brent crude oil prices surged by 13.57%, from $57.42 to $65.21 per barrel, driven by geopolitical factors and Fed expectations[2] - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, moving from 98.27 to 97.12, indicating a recovery in dollar strength[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate slightly decreased from 6.99 to 6.95, reflecting a slower appreciation of the yuan[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, highlighting a pause in interest rate cuts while indicating a slightly hawkish stance, which has led to adjustments in asset prices. The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for market adjustments, particularly in precious metals, but the article suggests this is a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pause interest rate cuts during its meeting on January 28, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [2][3]. - The dollar index began to rise, while U.S. stock markets experienced fluctuations, with precious metals initially rising but later facing corrections due to the Fed's hawkish signals [2][3]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Appointment - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair was unexpected in terms of timing and his policy stance, which emphasizes Fed independence and a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, advocating for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - The market does not expect Walsh's policy proposals to be implemented in the short term, as there are constraints related to dollar liquidity and employment pressures, despite the Fed's potential for technical balance sheet expansion starting December 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's appointment, there was significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals, which the article attributes to a rapid prior increase in prices rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [3]. - The article notes that while Walsh's appointment has some catalytic effects on market dynamics, it does not signify a fundamental shift in Fed policy direction, suggesting that precious metal prices may find support after short-term technical adjustments [3]. Group 4: Global Asset Performance - During the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [4]. - Commodity prices were also mixed, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and the London gold price declining by 2.03% [4].

本周全球焦点在美联储，其行为表现为一"不动"和一"动"，"不动"之处在于 FOMC 暂停降息，但是表态略微偏鹰，资产价格开始调整，其后一"动"在于美联储新主 席落地，"沃什时刻"导致贵金属为代表的市场大幅调整，但我们认为其只是短期市 场过度炒作后调整的导火索，而非根本原因，黄金等价格调整后或仍有支撑。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 "沃什时刻"是导火索，而非根本原因 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 周 报 [Table_Summary] 本周（2026.1.26-2026.2.1），美联储的政策表态与人事任命成为全 球焦点 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.49% to 4160.01, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09% to 14342.74, and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.37% to 3330.39 [1][2]. Sector Performance - Precious metals, industrial metals, and petrochemicals sectors performed strongly, while solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace sectors experienced fluctuations [2]. - The basic metals sector saw significant gains, with copper and aluminum industries leading the rise, as multiple stocks hit the daily limit up [6]. Stock Highlights - Notable stocks included China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, and China Unicom, which showed strong performance [4]. - The aluminum futures market saw a rise of over 4%, with the main contract reported at 25345 yuan/ton [8]. Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology sector faced declines, with several companies such as Zhijiang Biology and Baipusais losing over 9% [10][11]. Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector faced downward adjustments, with companies like High Measurement and Maiwei experiencing drops exceeding 6% [11].

沪铜日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.64%。期市氛围偏暖，周边品种普遍上行，沪铜走势受到提振，不 过最近全球铜显性库存整体回升，期价涨幅有限。 最近铜矿端再传扰动，由于持续近三周的劳资罢工，位于智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下的 Mantoverde铜金矿的生产已经停止，其海水淡化工厂关闭。不过铜矿商自由港麦克莫伦公司周四表示， 旗下旗舰矿山、全球第二大铜矿Grasberg的约85%产能，将于今年下半年恢复生产。当前铜矿端偏紧状 态延续已久，国内冶炼厂生产压力增加，但产量仍保持扩张状态，最近铜价对矿端干扰的反应不大。 昨日LME铜库存增加8850吨至168250吨，为近八个月高位，注册仓单同步增加，注销占比回落。周中 国内部分地区到货有限，且下游逢低采购，国内精铜社会库存并未继续累积。新湖期货表示，昨日 LME库存大增8850吨，其中美国新奥尔良库存增加5875；由于COMEX近月2601合约低于LME铜价，套 利空间驱动下，美国市场的铜被交仓到LME新奥尔良仓库；但由于远期COMEX铜价仍高于LME，因此 美国市场大量的库存仅是在不同的仓库中流转，并不会流出至非美市场；非美市场铜库存压力并不大 ...