Inflation Data - September US CPI was below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of +0.3% compared to the expected +0.4%[1] - Core CPI also underperformed, rising +0.2% month-on-month against an expectation of +0.3%[1] - Year-on-year CPI increased by 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.1%[1] Housing Inflation - The Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) component saw a significant drop from +0.38% to +0.13%, marking a new low since the pandemic[1] - Housing inflation's contribution to overall CPI was notably affected by this OER decline, which has a high weight of 26% in the CPI calculation[1] Market Trends - Major global stock indices rose due to better-than-expected corporate earnings and easing trade risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 1.9% and 2.3% respectively[1] - Gold prices fell sharply by over 5% due to profit-taking from previous highs, while WTI crude oil surged by 6.9% to $61.5 per barrel[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, with the policy rate likely dropping to 3.75% by year-end[2] - The market is increasingly betting on consecutive rate cuts due to tightening liquidity conditions and ongoing regional bank risks[1] Economic Growth Projections - Analysts have revised the Q3 2025 US GDP growth forecast upwards to 2.8%, while slightly downgrading Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 projections[2] - The consensus for PCE year-on-year growth has been adjusted downwards, with Q3 2025 now expected at 2.7%[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

具体来看，包括汽油、电在内的能源价格指数环比增长0.8%；食品价格环比增长0.5%。8月消费者支出 环比增长0.6%；8月个人收入环比增长0.4%；8月个人储蓄率为4.6%。消费者支出和收入数据均好于市 场预期。 美媒分析认为，好于预期的消费者支出数据显示美国消费者消费需求依然旺盛，对美国经济而言是"好 消息"。经济学家认为，当月通胀虽小幅"升温"，但预计不会影响美联储降息步伐。 美联储17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间的水平。这是美联储时隔9 个月重启降息。美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，今年可能还将降息两次。(完) PCE是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标，也是美联储较为青睐的衡量通胀水平的指标。 美国商务部当天公布数据显示，剔除食品和能源价格后，美国8月核心PCE价格指数环比上涨0.2%，同 比上涨2.9%，同比增幅与7月数据持平，符合市场预期。 中新社华盛顿9月26日电 (记者 沙晗汀)美国商务部当地时间26日公布数据显示，美国8月个人消费支出 (PCE)价格指数环比上涨0.3%，同比增长2.7%，同比增幅较7月数据高出0.1个百分点，显示通胀小幅"升 温"。 ...