Inflation Data - The U.S. September CPI year-on-year is 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1% and previous 2.9%[3] - The month-on-month CPI is 0.3%, matching the expected and previous values of 0.4%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year is also 3.0%, below the expected 3.1% and the previous 3.1%[3] Market Reactions - The lower-than-expected CPI data has increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] - Following the data release, U.S. stock indices rose, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar saw slight increases[3] Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices rose significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5%, up from 0.7% in the previous month[4] - Gasoline prices surged by 4.1%, contributing approximately one-third to the overall CPI increase[4] - Food CPI month-on-month decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.5% in the previous month, indicating a weakening impact from tariffs[4] Core Components - Core goods prices showed slight fluctuations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3%[5] - Used car prices fell significantly by 0.4%, while new car prices increased by 0.2%[5] - Housing prices remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.4%[5] Economic Outlook - The moderate inflation performance creates conditions for the Federal Reserve to consider easing monetary policy[5] - Upcoming economic indicators to watch include the FOMC meeting on October 29 and the Q3 GDP release on October 30[5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the U.S. CPI in September showed a slight recovery year-on-year, but it was below market expectations. The core CPI experienced a slowdown month-on-month, primarily due to a drop in used car prices, while prices of imported goods rebounded significantly, reflecting ongoing tariff effects [1]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The inflation rebound was less than anticipated, leading the Federal Reserve to focus more on employment risks, with expectations of a potential rate cut in October or December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4% [1]. - The October CPI is likely to be suspended, and based on historical data from 2013, the first CPI data after a long hiatus may show significant deviations due to limited sample data, increasing uncertainty regarding the timing of rate cuts [1]. Banking System and Future Projections - As the banking system's reserves approach a reasonable level of abundance, the Federal Reserve may soon halt quantitative tightening (QT) [1]. - Looking ahead to next year, as economic growth stabilizes and inflation declines, the Federal Reserve may implement two additional rate cuts, with a year-end target for the federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% [1].

10月27日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0881，较上日调升47点。 美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为98.3% 中金研报称，美国9月CPI季调环比上涨0.3%，同比升至3.0%，核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨3.0%， 低于市场预期。从分项来看，房租与二手车价格拖累较为明显，反映相关需求走弱。我们猜测这与特朗 普限制和驱逐移民的政策有关。受关税影响的商品价格涨跌互现，但其涨价的速度和幅度低于我们此前 的预期。这也反映出终端需求偏弱，企业难以将关税成本向消费者转嫁。服务通胀依旧坚挺。综合来 看，这份通胀数据较为温和，支持美联储继续降息。鉴于劳动力市场面临下行风险，我们预计美联储或 将在10月与12月分别降息25个基点。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为96.7%，维持利率不变的概率为3.3%。美联储 12月累计降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - US CPI in September was lower than market expectations, but the stagflation risk remains unresolved. The cooling of the US real - estate market has curbed inflation, but price increases in non - rent services and core commodities are still high. Retailer inventory is tight, and an aggressive trade policy may exacerbate inflation risks [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is oscillating around the 4% mark. The outcome of the US Supreme Court's tariff case and the resolution of the US government "shutdown" affect the US Treasury market. Caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield is below 4% [2] - The price index of edible agricultural products has rebounded. There are changes in prices of various commodities such as oil, metals, and building materials. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from October 1 - 21, 2025, decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report shows various charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and export volume, including copper prices, steel production, and commodity price indices [8][23][29] US and European Important High - frequency Indicators - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE, and financial conditions indexes, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [96][98][105] High - frequency Data Seasonal Trends - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including data on steel production, production material price indices, and commodity price indices [107][113][116] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [160][164][167]

Inflation Data - September US CPI was below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of +0.3% compared to the expected +0.4%[1] - Core CPI also underperformed, rising +0.2% month-on-month against an expectation of +0.3%[1] - Year-on-year CPI increased by 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.1%[1] Housing Inflation - The Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) component saw a significant drop from +0.38% to +0.13%, marking a new low since the pandemic[1] - Housing inflation's contribution to overall CPI was notably affected by this OER decline, which has a high weight of 26% in the CPI calculation[1] Market Trends - Major global stock indices rose due to better-than-expected corporate earnings and easing trade risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 1.9% and 2.3% respectively[1] - Gold prices fell sharply by over 5% due to profit-taking from previous highs, while WTI crude oil surged by 6.9% to $61.5 per barrel[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, with the policy rate likely dropping to 3.75% by year-end[2] - The market is increasingly betting on consecutive rate cuts due to tightening liquidity conditions and ongoing regional bank risks[1] Economic Growth Projections - Analysts have revised the Q3 2025 US GDP growth forecast upwards to 2.8%, while slightly downgrading Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 projections[2] - The consensus for PCE year-on-year growth has been adjusted downwards, with Q3 2025 now expected at 2.7%[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the U.S. CPI in September unexpectedly slowed down, primarily due to a surprising decrease in the housing component, while tariffs continue to moderately push up commodity prices [1] Economic Indicators - The unexpected drop in inflation in September was influenced by disturbances in the housing component [1] - The ongoing government shutdown and a cooling job market suggest a high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in October, with December also being a baseline scenario for a rate cut [1] Tariff Impact - The current round of tariffs has a relatively small overall impact on inflation but is characterized by a longer-lasting effect [1] - The limited impact of tariffs on inflation suggests that they will not significantly constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [1] Employment Market - The persistent government shutdown and the expiration of the DOGE buyout plan are expected to impact the fragile U.S. job market in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to be cautious of the risk of a rapidly weakening job market, reinforcing the expectation of rate cuts in October and December [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which shows a year-on-year increase of 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous value of 2.9% [4] - The month-on-month CPI for September increased by 0.3%, which is lower than the expected 0.4% and matches the previous value of 0.4% [4] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, aligning with the previous expectation of 3.1% and the prior value of 3.1% [4] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, US stock index futures experienced a short-term rally, with the Nasdaq futures rising nearly 1% during the day [1] - US Treasury yields fell in response to the CPI data, with the 10-year Treasury yield decreasing by over 2 basis points, currently reported at 3.978% [1]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased by 0.3% in September, lower than the 0.4% rise in August, with a year-over-year increase of 3.0% [1][3] - Gasoline prices were a significant contributor to the overall price increase, rising by 4.1% in September, while energy prices increased by 1.5% [1][2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% in September, down from 0.3% in the previous two months, with notable increases in housing, airfare, entertainment, and clothing [1][3] Food Prices - Food prices increased by 0.2% in September, lower than the 0.5% rise in August, with household food prices up by 0.3% [2] - Among the six major food categories, four saw price increases, with "other household food" up by 0.5% and non-alcoholic beverages up by 0.7% [2] - Year-over-year, household food prices rose by 2.7%, with significant increases in meat, poultry, fish, and eggs by 5.2% [2] Energy Prices - The energy index rose by 1.5% in September, higher than the 0.7% increase in August, with gasoline prices up by 4.1% [2] - Over the past 12 months, the energy index increased by 2.8%, with electricity up by 5.1% and natural gas up by 11.7% [2] Core CPI Details - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% in September, with the housing index rising by 0.2% [3] - The year-over-year core CPI also rose by 3.0%, with notable increases in housing (3.6%) and healthcare (3.3%) [3] - The unadjusted CPI-U for the past 12 months reached an index level of 324.800, reflecting a 3.0% increase [3][4]

Core Insights - A significant portion of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is rising at a pace that exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, with risks associated with tariff delays [1] - The inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to persist until 2028 [1] - Given the current inflationary environment, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement substantial interest rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - A significant portion (72%) of the increase in the U.S. CPI exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, with risks associated with tariff delays [1] - The inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to persist until 2028 [1] - In this context, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement substantial interest rate cuts [1]