在历时约五个月的遴选后，美国下一任美联储主席的人选似乎已呼之欲出。竞争仍未尘埃落定，但押注 市场显示，一位华尔街重量级人物已暂时领跑。 智通财经APP获悉，预测市场数据显示，贝莱德高管里克·里德尔目前被视为接替鲍威尔出任美联储主 席的最大热门。在预测平台Kalshi上，里德尔的胜出概率约为48%，明显领先前美联储理事凯文·沃什的 31%。不过，就在不到一周前，沃什仍一度占据明显优势，显示市场情绪波动剧烈。 前美联储副主席弗格森也持类似观点。他在接受采访时表示，最终人选"很可能还是那两个凯文之一"。 他补充称，里德尔无疑是"合格且受到华尔街青睐的人选"，但并不认为其会率先"冲线胜出"。 此外，特朗普也不排除打出"黑马牌"，选择一位并未被视为最终候选名单成员的人士。他此前曾表示， 希望任命财政部长贝森特担任美联储主席，但这位前对冲基金经理本人并无意接任。 里德尔的优势与争议 若特朗普最终选择里德尔，其政策取向在多方面与白宫立场存在共鸣，包括倾向于更低的利率水平，以 及愿意通过美联储资产负债表来引导经济。去年12月美联储连续第三次降息25个基点后，里德尔曾撰文 指出，当前利率"对房地产市场复苏仍然过高"，中小企业和 ...

2026.01. 17 本文字数：1998，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 下一届美联储主席人选之争在周五再生变数。美国总统特朗普暗示，他或许希望留任白宫国家经济委 员会主任哈西特（Kevin Hassett），让其继续担任现职。 特朗普此番表态后，预测市场平台Kalshi将凯文·哈西特出任美联储主席的概率从此前的35%下调至 15%。而前美联储理事凯文·沃什的当选概率则从44%升至 58%。与此同时，另一家预测平台 Polymarket的数据显示，沃什的支持率由44%攀升至60%，哈西特的支持率则从 36%降至16%。 特朗普是在周五出席一场聚焦农村医疗问题的活动中，对白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特作出上述评 价。此前，哈西特刚刚做客一家美国媒体，参与了一场内容广泛的访谈节目。 "我看到凯文也在现场，你今天在电视上的表现太棒了。说实话，我其实更希望你留在现在的岗位 上。哈西特真的很优秀。"特朗普说道。"我在想，'等一下，如果我把他调走 。'那样我就会失去你 这个得力助手。这是我非常担心的一点，所以我必须好好跟你说声谢谢。" "我们不想失去他，就让我们静观其变吧。"特朗普对着自己的办公厅主任怀尔 ...

特朗普对下任美联储主席人选仍未做出最终决定， 候选人名单在12月初一度缩减至哈塞特（Hassett）一人后，沃什（Warsh）凭借上周的强势面试重新回到 竞争行列。 华尔街巨头和特朗普盟友正就人选问题各方游说，这场选拔已演变为一场跨越金融界和政界的激烈角逐。 据媒体报道， 美联储理事沃勒（Waller）本周也接受了特朗普面试，并获得企业高管支持。 BlackRock高管Rick Rieder计划于年底最后一周在特朗普私人俱 乐部接受面试，这表明 候选人范围再次扩大，竞争更加白热化。 媒体援引知情人士，华尔街内部人士一直在为沃什进行游说，致电政府官员为其争取支持，部分目标是将哈塞特排除在考虑范围之外。 尽管沃什的商界支持者认为，他相比哈塞特更能保持独立于白宫的立场，因其不太可能在经济环境未支持的情况下轻易推行降息，但特朗普曾向媒体表示，沃 什在交流中曾明确向其传递美联储应当降息的信息。 前达拉斯联储主席Richard Fisher表示："我认为除非对特朗普总统做出某种承诺，否则你无法得到这份工作。" 华尔街巨头积极介入人选博弈 批评者认为哈塞特与特朗普关系过于密切，可能缺乏作为独立央行主席在债券市场的可信度。 ...

美联储主席热门人选再添一位。 据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普于12月12日表示，凯文·沃什已跻身其心目中美联储下一任主席候选名 单的榜首，不过其他候选人仍在竞争之列。 据悉，当被问及沃什是否已是其头号人选时，特朗普回应称："没错，我认为他就是。" 沃什本人曾担任美联储理事，此前虽入选特朗普的候选人名单，但并非热门人选。不过，在上周三（12 月10日）与特朗普会面后，他进一步赢得了特朗普的青睐。据外媒报道，知情人士透露，特朗普当天在 白宫与沃什举行了45分钟会面，其间向沃什施压，询问若其当选美联储主席，是否能保证支持降息。 而对于此前被预测市场视为热门人选的白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，特朗普表示："这两位凯 文都在候选名单里，我觉得他们二人都很出色。"特朗普补充道，"我认为还有另外几位候选人也十分优 秀。" 据CNBC报道，目前，预测平台上沃什的当选概率已从约15%飙升至最高40%。与此同时，凯文·哈塞特 出任下届美联储主席的概率，也从不久前的80%一度跌破60%。 特朗普：美联储主席在制定利率决策时应征询总统意见 除了谈及美联储人选，特朗普当天还重申了他此前的主张，即美联储主席在制定利率决策时应征询总统 ...

美联储主席热门人选再添一位。 在美国总统特朗普透露 凯文・沃什是美联储主席 头号人选后，目前，在预测平台上， 沃什的当选概率从约 15%飙升至最高40%。与此同时，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特出任下届美联储主席的概率，也从 不久前的80%一度跌破60%。 当地时间12月12日，据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普在采访中被直接问及沃什是否已是其目前的首选人选时， 特朗普回应道："没错，我认为他就是。" 此外，特朗普于当天还重申了其长期持有的立场，即美联储主席应就利率政策向总统征询意见。当地时间12月 10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%—3.75%。彼时，特朗普曾评 论称，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 沃什支持率飙升 据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普于12月12日表示，凯文・沃什已跻身其心目中美联储下一任主席候选名单的榜 首，不过其他候选人仍在竞争之列。 据悉，当被问及沃什是否已是其头号人选时，特朗普回应称："没错，我认为他就是。" 沃什本人曾担任美联储理事，此前虽入选特朗普的候选人名单，但并非热门人选。不过，在上周三（12月10 日）与特朗普会面后，他进一步赢得了特朗普的青 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the position of the Federal Reserve Chairman, highlighting the withdrawal of Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt from the race and focusing on Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller as the main contenders [1][12]. Candidate Profiles - **Kevin Warsh**: - Warsh is the youngest among the candidates, born in 1970, and has a strong academic background with degrees from Stanford University and Harvard Law School. He has experience in both Wall Street and government, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, where he played a key role during the 2008 financial crisis [2][4]. - **Kevin Hassett**: - Hassett, aged 63, is an economist with a Ph.D. and has previously served as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019. He has recently shifted his public stance on the Fed, becoming a critic of current Chairman Jerome Powell, which has increased his visibility as a candidate [5][8]. - **Christopher Waller**: - Waller has a robust academic and professional background, being the first in his family to attend college. He was appointed as a Federal Reserve Governor in December 2020 and has gained influence within the Fed, particularly noted for his views on labor market dynamics [9][11]. Political Context - President Trump has initiated discussions regarding the next Fed Chairman, indicating that the selection process is underway. The potential candidates are seen as having varying degrees of alignment with Trump's economic policies, which may influence their chances of selection [1][12]. - The article suggests that Trump's early announcement of potential candidates may serve as a pressure tactic against current Chairman Powell, reflecting the ongoing tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [12].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to four individuals, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin voluntarily withdrawing from consideration [1] Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin declined the opportunity to become the Federal Reserve Chair, preferring to continue his role as Treasury Secretary [1] - The candidates under consideration include White House Economic Council Director Hassett and former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh, both of whom support lowering interest rates [1] - Trump described Hassett and Warsh as "very good candidates" for the position [1]

Core Points - Trump is expected to announce new appointments for the Federal Reserve Board and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could reshape his economic policy agenda for the remainder of his term [1] - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler creates an opportunity for Trump to appoint a candidate more aligned with his preference for interest rate cuts [2] - The recent firing of Labor Statistics Bureau Chief Erika McEntarfer follows weak non-farm payroll data, raising questions about the integrity of economic data [4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Appointments - Trump plans to select a new Federal Reserve Board member and announce a new Labor Statistics Bureau Chief within a few days [1] - The vacancy left by Kugler allows Trump to appoint a board member who aligns with his interest rate policies, potentially influencing the selection of the next Fed Chair [2] - The next Fed Chair's appointment will be strategic, as it may occur before Powell's term ends in May 2026, allowing Trump to position his preferred successor [2] Group 2: Labor Statistics Bureau Changes - The dismissal of McEntarfer has drawn criticism, particularly as she was confirmed with bipartisan support [4][5] - Trump accused McEntarfer of manipulating key economic data without providing evidence, which has raised concerns about the reliability of labor statistics [4] - Recent non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and substantial downward revisions for previous months [4]