Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Most domestic futures contracts rose on December 24, 2025, with significant gains in platinum, palladium, silver, and lithium carbonate, while some contracts like container shipping index (European line) and polysilicon declined [6]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper has production increases but weak downstream demand; lithium carbonate has strong downstream demand but potential risks of high - level decline; crude oil is in a supply - surplus situation [9][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.15 million tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. SMM expects a 6.57 - million - ton increase in December. Copper foil is in high - demand, but downstream demand is weak due to year - end factors [9]. - **Silver**: It rose by more than 8% on December 24 [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and closed low, rising nearly 6% on December 24. The capacity utilization rate in the week was 83.52%, and the output in November was 93,886 tons, with a predicted increase in December. Downstream demand from energy - storage batteries supports the price, but there is a risk of high - level decline [10][11]. - **Nickel**: It rose by more than 4% on December 24 [6]. - **Gold**: The gold contract 2602 had a capital outflow of 4.224 billion yuan [7]. - **Tin**: The tin contract 2602 had a capital outflow of 386 million yuan [7]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Both platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit on December 24 [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain the overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut producers will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The demand peak has ended, and the overall oil inventory has increased. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have made progress, but the Venezuela situation has raised concerns. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production in December is expected to be 2.158 billion tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous month (3.1%) and 3.44 billion tons from the same period last year (13.8%). The开工 rate is at a low level, and the inventory is also low. The Venezuelan situation may affect production, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Chemicals - **PP**: As of December 19, the downstream PP开工 rate was 53.80%, and on December 24, the enterprise开工 rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 27%. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][17]. - **Plastic**: On December 24, the plastic开工 rate was about 86.5%. As of December 19, the PE downstream开工 rate was 42.45%. There are new production capacities, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18]. - **PVC**: The PVC开工 rate decreased to 78.36%, and the downstream开工 rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The export increased slightly, but the Indian market demand is limited. The inventory is still high, and the upward space is limited [19][20]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The spot price decreased slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory increased. After a rebound, the enthusiasm has slightly subsided, and the winter - storage progress needs attention [21]. - **Urea**: The futures price rose on December 24, and the spot price increased. The daily output is 190,000 tons, and the supply pressure is still there. The downstream demand has some resilience, and there is a multi - empty game [23]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all rose on December 24, with increases of 0.55%, 0.11%, 1.56%, and 1.87% respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat, the 5 - year futures decreased by 0.1%, and the 10 - year and 30 - year futures increased by 0.02% [7]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) and Polysilicon**: They both decreased by more than 1% on December 24 [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: It decreased by nearly 1% on December 24 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to face resistance due to weak terminal demand despite short - term upward support, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [3] - The price of crude oil has dropped significantly. Although the supply - demand situation has improved, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain variable. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] - The price of copper is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term, with the subsequent direction guided by the Fed's policy and the implementation of copper tariffs [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term and remain bearish in the long - term [12] - It is recommended to operate cautiously on asphalt and go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level [15] - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [16] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level recently [18] - Soybean oil futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] - Soybean meal futures are expected to show an oscillating adjustment [21] - Urea is expected to oscillate and consolidate currently, and the subsequent trend depends on export quotas [22] Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, rising nearly 5% on the day [3] - Spot price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was reported at 930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 724 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [3] - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to environmental and safety inspections. Demand was weak. The market sentiment improved, but terminal demand was insufficient. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3] Crude Oil - Geopolitical situation: Tensions in the Middle East have cooled rapidly, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. However, uncertainties remain, such as the implementation of the cease - fire agreement and US sanctions [4][5] - Fundamentals: Entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude inventories falling to a low level and OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] Copper - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, with an upward breakthrough in the price range [10] - Fundamentals: Supply was still increasing, while global copper inventories were being depleted at different rates. Demand was boosted by export but was weak in the terminal market. It is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: Opened low and closed high, with an upward - trending price center [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and the price was approaching the cost line. Downstream demand was cautious, but the new energy market sales were good. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the long - term [11][12] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly operating rate increased, and the July production plan increased. Inventories were at a low level [13] - Demand: Downstream operating rates varied, and the national shipment volume increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] PP - Operating rate: Both downstream and enterprise operating rates decreased, and the production ratio of standard products declined [14] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and inventory pressure was high. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15] Plastic - Operating rate: The operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased, and the overall was at a low level [16] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] PVC - Operating rate: Both upstream and downstream operating rates decreased, and the export situation was complex [17] - Fundamentals: Social inventories increased, and demand was not substantially improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18] Soybean Oil - International situation: The weather in the US soybean - producing areas was conducive to production [19] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were expected to rise. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] Soybean Meal - International situation: The weather in the US was beneficial to soybean growth [20] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were accumulating rapidly. It is expected to show an oscillating adjustment [20][21] Urea - Supply: The daily output was stable, and the supply pressure was relieved by exports [22] - Demand: The new order volume decreased, and the support from compound fertilizer factories was limited. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [22] Market Overview - As of the close on June 27, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, coking coal rose nearly 5%, and industrial silicon rose more than 4% [7] - In terms of fund flow, funds flowed into contracts such as SHFE copper 2508 and flowed out of contracts such as SHFE gold 2508 [7]